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2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2

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2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2 Empty 2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2

Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:58 pm
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Please share your own thoughts below. This is intended to start a discussion, if you have seen a team and you think we are over or under valuing them let us know! Good luck with regionals! If you aren't on here, then prove us wrong! If you made our list, then prove us right! - MockAnalysisIsMyDrug


Regional 2-A: (19 Teams, 5 bids) ‘The Nats Path' (MAIMD Ranking 7/32)

- 2 team in top 50, 4 teams in top 100, 6 in top 200

First in:
UCLA A
Virginia B

Bubble:
Rochester A
Illinois A
Pennsylvania A
Emory C
South Carolina C
Cal Poly SLO D

Initial Thoughts:
Coming in as the 7th hardest regional is 2-A. Why is this regional so hard? Well, 5 of the teams here have been to nationals in the past few years—and there are only six bids. That means hitting any of them might be season-ending for a team. It also means those teams are likely to hit each other at some point and potentially knock one another out of the running, opening up a spot for a younger team or one that hasn’t earned a bid in a while. Leading the pack are the Great Chicago Fire winners, UCLA A. Led by former Gladiator champion Audrey Shephard, this team has had a lot of success in the invitational season and we fully expect UCLA A to make it out of this regional with absolutely no problems. After that, there are a lot of teams who would usually be front runners to make it out, but given the difficulty of this field, we’re not sure if they will. UVA B is a team that consistently earns a bid to not only ORCS, but sometimes even to nationals. This year, they look as strong as ever, so we expect them to join UCLA. After that, we have some A teams that are constant competitors to ORCS including Rochester, Illinois and Pennsylvania. All of these teams usually have an easy time making it out of regionals. The notable exception is what happened to Rochester last year. Despite making nationals in 2019, none of their four teams earned a bid to ORCS 2020, and while that ORCS wouldn’t have happened for them anyways, it was still a disappointing finish. Rounding out the bubble are some C/D teams from successful schools. Emory C, South Carolina C and Cal Poly SLO D all look to earn bids for their respective schools, and given their success over the past few years, we believe those last spots could be theirs.

Good luck to our new team in this region, the Lancers of Pasadena City College A

Team to watch: Rochester A
Rochester A has had a wild last few years. In 2017 they qualified not one but two teams to nationals after not making the NCT in any year for over a decade. They managed to bid again to the NCT in 2018, this time with just one team. In 2019, they proved to the world that bad luck at regionals doesn’t mean much by failing to bid at 4.5 wins, slipping into ORCS on that year’s very generous ORCS open bid list, and then still managing to earn a bid to the NCT. In 2020, however, they did just half a ballot worse at regionals and didn’t make it to ORCS. With most other teams, we would read this as a sign that they were falling off. But this is a team of odd results and unexpected finishes. Perhaps, had they been given a chance to compete at ORCS, they would have taken themselves back to the 2020 NCT. On the other hand, their results at spring invites so far have been uninspiring, with primarily losing records even in tournaments with weak fields. We will have our eye on Rochester to see if they can break their regionals curse and make it to ORCS—where they seem to succeed more easily.




Regional 2-B: (22 Teams, 6 bids) ‘Bubble Bash' (MAIMD Ranking 28/32)
- 1 team in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 8 in top 200

First in:
Northwestern A

Bubble:
Georgia Tech B
SUNY Binghamton A
UC Davis B
Tufts C
Wesleyan C
Illinois C
Arizona C
La Salle A
South Carolina B

Initial Thoughts:
While 2-B is ranked as the 6th easiest regional, don’t expect an easy time if you’re attending. What this regional lacks in power at the top is easily made up for by the high number of solid top-200 teams. At the top, we have Northwestern A. We’d be shocked if Northwestern A doesn’t make it out, as they are the only returning nationals team and their winter invitational results (1st at Beach Party and 2nd at GCF) prove that they haven’t lost any steam from the past few years. Following Northwestern are a plethora of teams that look to earn one of the remaining 5 spots. Some of the more likely recipients include SUNY Binghamton A and the B teams from Georgia Tech and UC Davis. All 3 teams consistently earn bids and have performed well at ORCS so they should make it out. Then there are a bunch of B and C teams that have the ability to earn bids and have done so in the past few years and are looking to repeat their success.

As a result we expect a pile up of teams in the 5-6 wins range at this tournament and a brutal “power protected” round. This is likely to be exacerbated, because for the second year in a row, AMTA has adopted a system with a lot of regionals and very few bids per regional. This means that the “in bracket” at this regional is likely to be quite small with this many qualified teams, so instead of hitting weaker teams, they are likely to hit each other head to head in the last round. On the one hand, head to head is probably the best way of determining which teams deserve to advance. On the other, it's likely to turn round 4 at this regional into a bit of a blood bath.

Team to watch: La Salle A
La Salle is a program that makes ORCS around two-thirds of the time, making them a pretty standard bubble team. They did qualify last year after an off year in 2019, and they have tended to pull off ORCS in back to back years as their program rises in the past. Their invite results this year are primarily from the fall, leaving room for improvement, but they do show some cause for concern. They went 0-8 at Rochester’s tournament and 3-5 in Yale’s B division (earning two out of their three ballots by playing the bye-buster). They do, however, have the distinct advantage of competing with judges they know. This regional is hosted by Penn State, which is about 20 miles from La Salle’s campus. One thing that will certainly play a role is which regional judges are from and we expect that since Penn State is recruiting the judges, La Salle will have a significant advantage knowing what those judges are looking for style wise. That won’t guarantee them a bid, but La Salle is talented enough that we think they might have an easier time earning a bid at 2-B than they would anywhere else.




Regional 2-C: (21 Teams, 6 bids) ‘Expected’ (MAIMD Ranking 20/32)
- 3 team in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 6 in top 200

First in:
Florida A
UC Davis A

Bubble:
Lafayette A
Notre Dame A
Vermont A
Michigan State B
Northwestern D
UMass Amherst C
Washington & Lee B

Initial Thoughts:
This regional is pretty standard for what we expect. A few nationals returners, a few consistent ORCS teams and some solid B-D programs looking to upset the A teams. At the top, we have our consistent nationals returners in Florida and UC Davis. We expect both of these teams to easily make it out of this regional and be in contention to return to nationals once again. Next, we have some A teams that consistently make it to ORCS in Lafayette A and Notre Dame A. Both programs usually send their A team to ORCS and are competitive to advance from there, so while it’s less of a guarantee, we expect both of them to move on as well. Then there are a large group of teams looking to prove they can earn bids. This includes some A teams like Vermont and St. Benedict/St. John who’ve advanced to ORCS before, some B teams like Michigan State, Washington & Lee and Clark and even some C and D teams from top programs like UMass Amherst and Northwestern looking to guarantee their schools two teams at ORCS.

The main thing to look out for at this regional is that this tournament is hosted by Buffalo State, meaning there will likely be more New York judges. How will the non-east coast teams adapt to the specific regional judging? Could this help teams like UMass Amherst C and Clark B while hurting some favorites like UC Davis A and Florida A? Only time will tell.

Team to watch: UC Davis A
UC Davis A is coming into this regional as a team that should have an easy time making it out. They’re a consistent nationals attendee and are returning most of their A team that earned a bid at Santa Monica in 2020. The reason they’re the team to watch is because for an unknown reason, they didn’t compete at all in the fall. The first time their A team competed was at Beach Party, where they earned 5 wins, but their 4 wins at UCLASSIC left us with concerns. That was enough for us to say that they most likely advance, but the lack of competition this year is something that might end up as UC Davis’ downfall.




Regional 2-D: (20 Teams, 6 bids) ‘The Unknown’ (MAIMD Ranking 5/32)
- 2 team in top 50, 4 teams in top 100, 8 in top 200

First in:
Columbia A
Ohio State B

Bubble:
Duke B
Washington & Lee A
Connecticut A
Patrick Henry C
Rutgers C
Georgia Tech D
Fordham Rose Hill B
Loyola Marymount A

Initial Thoughts:
Regionals are known for random results, and we expect that by the end of this regional, there will be some teams that usually advance that don’t. At the top of this regional is Columbia A and Ohio State B—both nationals returners from 2019. However, both aren’t as strong as they were then. Ohio State B failed to earn a bid to nationals in 2020 and they’ve graduated some big names. But they’ve done alright in the winter invites, getting 4th place at Wreck. Columbia also graduated some big names, but unlike OSU, they’ve struggled during the winter invites—going 2-6 at GCF. On the flip side, teams that have been doing well in winter invites include Duke B and Washington & Lee A. Duke B won AtypiCAL and Washington & Lee finished runners up at Swamp. Those 4 should be at the top of this regional, but if they play each other, it’s anyone’s guess as to which is knocked out. Following are a lot of C and D teams from fantastic schools. Patrick Henry C, Georgia Tech D, Rutgers C, and William & Mary D all look to secure a bid for their respective schools and have done so in the past. Add in Connecticut A, Fordham Rose Hill B, and Loyola Marymount A and this regional is sure to be a bloodbath.

Team to watch: Ohio State B
Ohio State B at one point was as strong as their A team, if not stronger, finishing with a better record at ORCS in 2019 and then equally placing 5th in their respective divisions. Last year, we expected similar results, but Ohio State B only earned four wins at ORCS 2020 and failed to earn a bid. Since we’re still using 2019 TPR, Ohio State B comes in as the 2nd highest team according to TPR, only 5 points below top ranked Columbia A. The next highest team, Duke B, is 15 points below OSU B and just by looking at those numbers, we’d say OSU B should easily advance. But if we factor in what their TPR would have been if we included the 2020 ORCS, they drop 15 points to the same level as Duke B’s 2019 TPR. All of this is to say that OSU B is not the same team that came fifth in nationals in 2019 and after graduating almost all of their A team, their B team might be younger than ever. In their only winter tournament, OSU B got 4th place at the Wreck so signs point up, but we’ll be keeping an eye out to see if OSU B delivers a 2019 performance or closer to 2020.

Regional 2-E: (20 Teams, 6 bids) ‘Fall Off’ (MAIMD Ranking 27/32)
- 1 team in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 6 in top 200

First in:
Patrick Henry A
UMass Amherst A
Florida State A
Iowa A

Bubble:
North Central A
St. Louis A
Rice B

Initial Thoughts:
Our initial thought is that this Regional looks FUN. AMTA has gifted the teams here with a tour of the country: teams here hail from the southwest, new england, mid-atlantic, panhandle, south, midwest, mountain states, and west coast. That will be fun for the teams here, but also an interesting microcosm to gauge what regional style this year’s national pool of judges will prefer as all regions have credibly strong teams here. Still, there are some clear frontrunners in PHC, FSU, and UMass Amherst who have all had respectable showings against strong teams at winter invitationals (UMass had close wins against Rutgers and a convincing win over Penn State leading up to an 8-0 finish at Wolverine Classic, PHC broke to semi-finals at Irvine’s Beach Party, and FSU beat Northwood and Miami B the its way to an 8-0 finish at Hoosier Hoedown). We would love to be a fly on the wall if these teams face each other. We are also hopeful that some of the perennial ORCS contenders like Iowa, North Central, and St. Louis will give us some exciting upsets.

Good luck to our new team in this region, the Bears of Missouri State University B!

Team to watch: Iowa A
UMass Amherst, who’s seen a rapid surge upward, could easily be the pick here. But we have to go with Iowa, an absolutely perplexing team. In the early to mid 2000s, Iowa was a powerhouse, winning back to back titles in 02 and 03. Ever since, Iowa has been a middle-tier power who makes the NCT every few years, with an A team that is regularly competitive at ORCS and a B team that often earns a bid of its own. Last year Iowa leveled up. They stormed through Regionals at a combined 14-2, and for the first time in a decade earned two bids to the nationals that would never be. We thought, perhaps, the Iowa of old was back. After the loss of strong seniors Ellen Wandro, Serena Qamhieh, and Michelle Kumar, however, this season has been a shock to the system. Other than a couple of middling finishes at their own tournament, Iowa’s Fall performances have been alarming. 1-7 at Habeas Hippopotamus, Colonial Classic, and Wonk; along with 0-8 at the Richard Calkins Invitational. We’re waiting to see their spring results, which will hopefully see some improvement. We know their team is very young this year, but they do have top performer Hannah Johnson and a solid group of coaches to lean on. Iowa has earned a bid to ORCS virtually every year since the turn of the century, they’re in a winnable region, but we’ll be anxiously watching what could be their toughest test in a very long time.

Regional 2-F: (22 Teams, 6 bids) ‘It’s All About Cornell' (MAIMD Ranking 9/32)
- 2 team in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 6 in top 200

First in:
UC Berkeley A
Cornell A

Bubble:
Cornell College A
Haverford A
Indiana B
UMBC B
WashU B
Wesleyan D

Initial Thoughts:
We’re pretty confident that nobody at this regional wants to hit UC Berkeley A. The Golden Bears are coming off arguably the best fall invitational season in AMTA, capped off by an 8-0-0 showing at Great Chicago Fire where they ran through the northeast powers: Tufts, Wesleyan, and Yale. The team is led by top attorneys in Rebecca Steinberg and Kensington Cotter, and features some of the best witnesses in the country in Gurbir Singh and Pablo Moraga. Nobody will want to run into this Berkeley team at Regionals or ORCS. The other top team at this regional is Cornell A, led by Erik Szakiel, one of the few All-American attorneys left in the nation. Still, this isn’t the Cornell team we saw come 3rd at the NCT in 2019.

We’ve also got Cornell College at this regional, which could make for a fun matchup. Cornell College isn’t the consistent NCT qualifier they used to be without Jack Beaumaster, but they’re still a team to avoid if you’re looking for a bid at 2-F. Same goes for Haverford A, which have yet to ascend back to their 2018 NCT heights, but have plenty of talent nonetheless. Toss in strong B, C, and D teams from consistent bidders like Indiana, UMBC, UC San Diego, Wesleyan, and WashU St. Louis, and it’s easy to see why this regional slots in at number 9 on our difficulty ratings list.

Good luck to our new team in this region, the Bears of Missouri State University A.

Team to watch: Dickinson A
Dickinson made their first appearance at ORCS last year after going 6-2-0 at Regionals. While they went 3-5, they posted good results despite a deceptively tough schedule, including a strong split against Hamilton A, a narrow loss to Wesleyan B, and a decisive win over UPenn. They retain most of their top talent, including captain and attorney Claire Simpson, who awarded at Regionals last year. They’ve posted solid invitational results this year, chief among them a 3rd place finish at Scarlet Knight with another award for Simpson. And, of course, the Red Devils feature witness Lucas Economou of MTCBIAU fame. While it remains to be seen whether or not Dickinson will make it back to ORCS this spring, we believe they’ve got the talent to do it. And, evidently, a whole lot of other anonymous folks on the internet believe they’ve got what it takes as well.

Regional 2-G: (20 Teams, 6 bids) ‘Even Fight’ (MAIMD Ranking 16/32)
- 2 team in top 50, 4 teams in top 100, 7 in top 200

First in:
Northwood A
Miami B

Bubble:
Macalester A
Dillard A
GW B
UW Madison A
Colorado A
NYU B
SLO C

Initial Thoughts:
This regional is one of the more evenly leveled fields. Starting at the top, Northwood A comes in as the favorite coming in. And historically Northwood has been a top level power, under the tutelage of DeLois Leaphart. This is probably on the harder side of years for Northwood, after graduating both their captain Zach Messner as well as two time TBC competitor and All-American Chris Grant. They have had a few people putting up really strong performances this fall anyway. Parker Luchenbill has pulled a few awards, witness Jacob Walters earned an award at both GAMTI and GCF, and of course Simeon Lawrence comes in as the best character witness in AMTA after having racked up 9(!) awards through the invitational season alone.

Beyond Northwood, the rest of this field is pretty even. We have B teams from historical powers (both Miami and NYU), a B team from a mid-level power (George Washington), as well as a number of A teams who all have the potential to break to ORCS (Macalester, Dillard, UW Madison, Colorado). That’s why this regional has a relatively larger bubble - there are a lot of ways the results of this regional could go and we are very interested to see what happens.

Good luck to our new team in this region, the Midshipmen of the US Naval Academy.

Team to watch: Miami B
Obviously, Miami is a strong program. They are the three time reigning champion, despite only winning one championship. And in our most recent results, Miami B earned a bid to the 2019 NCT. However, a lot of time has passed since those results. The Miami program has graduated a lot of strong players since then, including Spencer Campbell and Maddie Witte. This year, Miami A has shown a lot of strength (including winning GAMTI). So the question we have here is how Miami’s B team will perform. B and C teams for strong programs can often vary in talent a lot, but also in system programs like Miami have a training base that is high enough such that it can lift players with less natural talent to better results. There’s not a ton groundbreaking here, but we are very excited to see how Miami B does

Regional 2-H: (20 Teams, 6 bids) ‘Hoya Hopefuls' (MAIMD Ranking 25/32)
- 2 team in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 7 in top 200

First in:
Georgetown A
Rutgers A

Bubble:
Arizona State A
Texas A&M A
Fordham Rose Hill A
Florida State B
Bowdoin A
UC Berkeley D
Duke D

Initial Thoughts:
2-H clocks in as one of the easiest regionals this year for obvious reasons. They lack a consistent nationals team to anchor the top. Instead they have two teams both of whom occasionally make nationals but whose record in doing so has been spotty at best. Georgetown A, after earning bids to nationals in 2019 and 2020, is showing no sign of slowing down in the 2021 season and will likely be dominating the competition. Rutgers is in a similar boat, advancing two teams to the 2020 ORCS and earning a bid to nationals at Lancaster last year, the same ORCS as Georgetown. Outside of these two top dogs, the fight for a bid becomes more interesting. FSU remains a program of strong depth at the Regionals level, with their B team coming off a 3rd place finish at the Wolverine Classic and consistently bidding to ORCS over the past few years. ASU A has also established themselves as an ORCS team and will be looking to continue that record. With 6 bids to go around, the teams in the bubble will have plenty of room to shake things up in the second week of regionals.

Good luck to our new team in this region, the Bulls of University of South Florida - Sarasota-Manatee A.

Team to watch: Hamline A
Hamline as a program has had a bumpy ride during the past few years. In 2018 they looked like they were going to be the first team to get a host bid to NCT after several years of making ORCS and not advancing. But they just missed the cut and things got worse from there. However, last year things started to look up. After securing a bid out of the 2020 Des Moines Regional, they might be expected to do so again. But they seem to have had a lackluster season following that breakthrough. Keeping an eye on their performance this year will be a good indicator of the program’s consistency and ability to start climbing through the ranks again.

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2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2 Empty Re: 2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2

Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:00 pm
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Some really good analysis here. A few suggestions that I would make. In 2-A, I would add Kennesaw State and Trinity A to the bubble. Kennesaw has put together some solid results this year, and Trinity went 6-2 at regionals last year. I'd also add UMass Lowell to the bubble in 2-G, as they have made ORCS a few times before and have one or two impressive invite results this year. Finally, I would move Iowa to the bubble from "First In" in 2-E. while they do have a great coaching staff, their invitational results this year have been quite poor, and they lost almost two full teams of seniors from last year. they are a really talented and well-run program, but I think experience matters a lot and they are a bit lacking in that department.
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2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2 Empty Re: 2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2

Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:50 pm
Estimate on a Week 3 analysis?

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2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2 Empty Re: 2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2

Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:36 pm
So it looks like Northwood missed qualifying (although I'd guess they get an open bid). They had no fewer than three (3!) double digit splits, two of which were by more than 20 points. I find that to be crazy. I'm only judging this year and not paying attention. Is this a judging issue, or is Northwood running a really polarizing case?
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2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2 Empty Re: 2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2

Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:36 am
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I'm sure it's possible to get an objective answers but I'm a little too lazy/not mathematically inclined to do that. My subjective sense is that judging this year has been an issue, even more so than in past years. I think online it can be harder for good teams to differentiate themselves and that has led to some wonky results and fewer large margins overall. I've also seen way more judges who just give everything a 9 or a 10. I think a combination of judges struggling with tech and just being so impressed that people are even trying to do stuff online has led to some judges just making minimal or no effort to differentiate in their scores. I've seen Northwood before and they don't usually do anything this divisive, so my read on it is that it's a judging thing.
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2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2 Empty Re: 2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2

Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:53 pm
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Our team hit Northwood in January and they were phenomenal. I had no doubt that they would make it out of regionals. They didn't do anything crazy polarizing in our round so I have to assume it was weird judging, especially with those weird splits.
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2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2 Empty Re: 2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2

Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:40 pm
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I scouted Northwood at Regionals first round. They really got screwed, they were clearly the better team, but somehow they split. I was shocked when I saw that they dropped one of those ballots. My team and I made got a bid at a different Regionals but I will say the judging is very very questionable. I think AMTA needs to make clear in judges meeting how the rounds should be scored and that this is suppose to be a competitive activity and they should score accordingly.
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2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2 Empty Re: 2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2

Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:55 pm
I think that is a really interesting point that hopefully will be solved with the potential of a 3 judge panel at ORCS. Those large splits will of course still happen but hopefully if they do it will be in a 2-1 split favoring the team who performed better. If AMTA is not already planning a 3 judge panel they certainly should.
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2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2 Empty Re: 2021 Regionals Analysis Week 2

Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:20 pm
I think AMTA needs to make clear in judges meeting how the rounds should be scored and that this is suppose to be a competitive activity and they should score accordingly.

In AMTA's defense, as someone who went to the judging training, they do say this to judges! They give a lot of instructions, probably more than in past years even.
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