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2022 Regionals Analysis Week 2 Empty 2022 Regionals Analysis Week 2

Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:08 pm
Please share your own thoughts below. This is intended to start a discussion, if you have seen a team and you think we are over or under valuing them let us know! Good luck with regionals! If you aren't on here, then prove us wrong! If you made our list, then prove us right! - MockAnalysisIsMyDrug


2-A: (21 Teams) “2 Many A Teams” (MAIMD Ranking 2/28)
- 1 team in top 50, 5 teams in top 100, 10 in top 200

First in:
Emory A
Washington St. Louis A
Washington & Lee A

Bubble:
Tennessee Chattanooga A
Northern Illinois A
Kennesaw State A
Ohio State C
Hillsdale B
Chicago D
Eastern Michigan A

Initial Thoughts:
This Regional has the potential for quite the rematch. Last year, in Round 4 of ORCS, with the season on the line and a final bid to the NCT up for grabs, Emory A played WashU A. The result? +1, +2, +3. Emory. They came 4th in the Nelmark Division in April, WashU went home, and the rest is history. It’s probably misleading to say that any sort of storied rivalry will be on display on Zoom screens across America come February 12th and 13th, but the folks at WashU will likely be out for revenge. Led by the younger brother of an AMTA legend, Zach Stern, as well as award winners like Sarah Rosen and Sofie Adams, WashU will be eager to kick off a deep run by earning a bid here. Looking to beat them again will be Emory A, who have possibly the most talented attorney bench in the country: All-American Attorneys Riya Lakkaraju and Danielle Jacoby as well as 10+ award winner Sara DeLacey. Emory came 2nd at the Windy City Invitational in Chicago and have all the pieces in place to try for the National Championship in April—unless something derails them in the early stages of the game. This Regional doesn’t get too much easier after the top dogs. It comes in 2nd in our difficulty rankings, and that’s because of powerhouse second-tier squads like Washington & Lee A, Tennessee Chattanooga A. The former is looking to make another deep run after coming up just shy of a bid to the NCT last year, and they’ve got the personnel and the track record to do it. Alex Wilkerson, a double threat competitor who regularly tops award lists on Impeachments, leads an intrepid group who have posted winning records at Yale, Soda City, Happy Valley, and Grand Ole Tournament this season. Chattanooga is also looking to take the next step this season, and award winner Taylor Patton and the Mocs will look to start their journey here.

Even if we look past those teams, this Regional doesn’t get much easier. For starters, we still see representation from top programs in Chicago D and Ohio State C. Both of these teams were on the verge of earning bids to ORCS last year and belong to programs with historically strong depth. However, they have also had mixed results on the invite circuit this year, which could be a sign of high turnover. That means their younger squads may face tougher odds at this regional. But even beyond that, almost every other team in our bubble is an A team, with the exception of Hillsdale B, who could still be considered on the same level as the other A teams at this regional in their own right. So no matter how you slice it, there probably isn’t a single team at this regional that will be coasting by come February 12th and 13th. Either way, we expect that this regional will be an exciting one to watch, and we look forward to seeing who wins out in the end.

Good luck to the new team in this region, the Flashes of Kent State!

Team to watch: Eastern Michigan A
It's a little hard to tell whether Eastern Michigan is a program on its way out or a solid program having a brief downswing before quickly getting back to consistent success. As recently as 2019, Eastern Michigan was regularly qualifying to ORCS and sweeping teams like Michigan B (although they had a remarkable streak of going 3-5 or 3.5-4.5 once there for nearly 7 years straight, and they haven't posted a winning record at ORCS since 2010). But in the last few years, we haven't seen them get past Regionals. Their invitational record this season isn't a strong sign of that changing, either—they have yet to post a winning record on any tab summaries we've seen this year, with records of 2-5-1 at Red Cedar Classic and Colonial Classic, 3-5 at Swear Me In Scotty, and 2-6 at Red Cedar Classic Redux. On the other hand, there are at least a few indicators that Eastern Michigan shouldn't be counted out just yet. Some of those ballots they've taken this season have been off strong programs like George Washington University, Case Western, and Texas A&M. Witness Jillian Jones has been winning individual awards since 2019, and we're excited to see if she can lead her program to renewed team success. The program also recently hosted the Great Lakes Invitational, results of which haven't yet been posted publicly. One thing those of you who follow only mock trial might be surprised to learn is that Eastern Michigan is a powerhouse in collegiate moot court. Just two years ago, in 2020, Eastern Michigan won the American Moot Court Association’s National Championship. The team that prevailed in the oral advocacy competition was led by Charles Graham, who also won a number of awards as a star attorney for EMU over the past few years. But as of this year, Graham is gone, and we’re not yet sure who can take his place. We'll be watching to see if the Eagles can shake off the lull of the past few years and earn their way back to the championship series!


2-B Regional: (24 Teams) “2B(id) or not 2B(id)” (MAIMD Ranking 6/28)
- 2 team in top 50, 4 teams in top 100, 11 in top 200

First in:
Florida State A
Ohio State A
Emory B

Bubble:
Hillsdale A
Pittsburgh A
Chicago C
Eastern Kentucky A
Miami B
Florida D
Central Michigan A

Initial Thoughts:
Make no mistake, 2-B is not an easy regional. While AMTA’s choice to re-balance when regionals went online did cause most teams to breathe a sigh of relief (and for us here at MAIMD, a sigh of aggravation, as we scrapped and re-wrote all of our prediction posts), keeping each team to the same weekend means there’s only so much that re-balancing could do to thin out the already highly competitive week two regionals. Our first-in category is a prime example–while in most other regionals, you just need to be a fairly regular ORCS contender to get put into that box, at 2-B our three first-in teams were all part of the 2021 Nationals field. Right at the top we’ve got OSU, coming in with a history of five consecutive bids to nationals and a fifth place finish at this year’s GAMTI. Given that record, it’s safe to say the Buckeyes would really surprise us if their season ended as soon as February. While we’re not going to say anything dramatic enough that they can use it as an instagram caption (sorry Drew Polito), everyone at 2-B should regard it as a near certainty that the Buckeyes will bid. The same is true of FSU A who has dominated the invite circuit this season, with only a single losing record across their entire program. This team is filled with powerhouse competitors and it’s difficult to find any team who could match their starpower at this regional. Expect fireworks and get your popcorn if Round Three sees us with a high-high Buckeyes v. Seminoles Rematch of last year’s AMTA live streamed ORCS round–we’d certainly be interested to see how the ballots shake out if these same two programs got a chance to go head-to-head again. Third in on our first in is Emory B, no less impressive than the other two but slightly less predictable. Last year, Emory B made it to nationals and walked out 16th place in their division plus two All-Americans…but how much of that team is actually still competing and how many of them moved up to become part of the new Emory A is anyone’s guess. Still, we’re pretty sure just based on record that this team hasn’t lost much heat—a 3rd place finish at the Soda City Trials and a 4th place at Ramblin’ Wreck tell us that much.

When we get outside of the top 50 powerhouses, 2-B still looks pretty gnarly. We’ve got Hillsdale A, who is an omnipresent ORCS attendee and just barely missed our cutoff to be considered a first-in. Then we’ve got Pittsburgh A who narrowly earned a bid to the 2021 ORCS with a 1 point win against Cal Poly SLO at their regional last year. Pittsburgh A has had a similar streak of narrowly achieving winning records on the invite circuit this year, so it will be interesting to see if they’re able to overcome that slump before regionals. The icing on the cake is the lower teams from powerhouse programs, Chicago C, Miami B, and University of Florida D. Remember that last year the University of Florida had all five of their teams earning bids from Regionals–so don’t treat the D team label like any less of a threat. While Miami B stumbled last year and ultimately didn’t earn a bid from Regionals, and their invitational results this year haven’t been particularly promising, the days when the Redhawks would be having two serious threat teams at Nationals and all their teams bidding are far from a distant memory…everyone in 2-B should beware if the sleeping dragon of Miami awakes.

Team to watch: Hillsdale A
At the very top of the bubble we have Hillsdale, a small college in southern Michigan who performs with a clinical, calculated, and polished performance that rivals some top-twenty teams. In truth, that categorization was the result of some intense debate on our part. Despite the fact that there are three Nationals teams in 2-B, we had a hard time saying it was anything less than a certainty we’d see Hillsdale leaving with a bid—and we spent a lot of time considering whether they were more deserving of a spot than any of those three teams. Anyone who has hit Hillsdale in a round can tell you they punch well above their weight class in terms of TPR—their theories are weird, their content is sharp, and they execute and perform with cleanliness and competence consistently. Even the crazy defense theories they’ve gained infamy for are usually meticulously executed. This difference in results is the product of a difference in mock philosophy. Typically, teams try to construct their content to gain points–choosing to run a higher energy character or a more dynamic statement style in the chances of pushing for a 9 or a 10 on the ballots, accepting the risk that if it clashes with judge preference, they might end up with a 5 or a 6. Hillsdale content is unique because it’s designed to, at all costs, not lose points—so while you won’t see flashy crosses or quirky characters when they take the courtroom, you will see two statements, three crosses, and three witnesses that it would be very hard for any judge to give below a 7. Taking ballots off the Chargers is a matter of not just demonstrating competence, but also excellence, and that can be a challenge. But their unrepresentative TPR doesn’t come from nowhere—Hillsdale has a well-established program legacy of losing bids to nationals with what we imagine must be devastating R4 losses. In 2019 they were 4-1-1 going into R4 in Geneva and in 2021 they were 7-1 at 1-A, before having their dreams crushed with a full R4 sweep from Penn State A and Tufts A respectively. That “not losing points” philosophy Hillsdale employs has historically had a pretty firm ceiling when they get into high-high competitive rounds, and match up against nationals tier teams who have spent all season hammering out content that maximizes the chances of that 9 or 10 and minimizes the chance of that 5 or 6. And given the high number of returning NCT teams at this regional, Hillsdale could be in for a tough weekend. Regardless, we said they would bid with near certainty for a reason, and we look forward to seeing where they land by the end of the weekend.
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2022 Regionals Analysis Week 2 Empty Re: 2022 Regionals Analysis Week 2

Fri Feb 18, 2022 12:46 pm
Summary
Most predictable tournament - 2B
Most surprising tournament - 2A
Most surprising team result - Hillsdale College A


Unpredicted Teams
Furman B

Predicted First In Teams Out
None


2-A:
Washington St. Louis A
Washington & Lee A
Chicago D*
Emory A
Hillsdale B*
Furman B**

*In from predicted "Bubble"
**Unpredicted in

Out from "First in" prediction:
None

2-B:
Pittsburg A*
Miami B*
Ohio State A
Florida State A
Emory B
Florida D*

*In from predicted "Bubble"
**Unpredicted in

Out from "First in" prediction:
None
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