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Mon Feb 14, 2022 2:13 pm
It seems like there are way more open bids than in year's past at this point. We have 24 open bids through 8 regionals, while there were only 10 open bids at this point last year. It hasn't happened since 2013, but we might get some 4-4 teams open bidding at this rate.
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Mon Feb 14, 2022 3:40 pm
Looks like those open bids all exist because there are 28 regionals (instead of 32), not because regionals results have created that many open bids.
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Mon Feb 14, 2022 3:52 pm
Ah okay yup that makes perfect sense. So we basically started this year off with an entire regionals worth of open bids. Should certainly see some 4-4 teams survive then I imagine.
Ghost of Perjuries Past
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Mon Feb 14, 2022 10:50 pm
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Sir Mocksalot wrote:So we basically started this year off with an entire regionals worth of open bids.

The better way to think of it would be 4 Regionals worth of bids since it’s 6 bids per Regional this year.

Sir Mocksalot wrote:Should certainly see some 4-4 teams survive then I imagine.

Hate to burst your bubble because you seem interested in this possibility, but this is highly, highly, highly unlikely.  While we’re starting with a lot of open bids, you still have the same number of overall bids to orcs as always, and close to the same number of teams competing for them.  If the amount of open bids created by C/D teams in the past holds steady, we should be tracking for about 50 open bids overall.  We’re also tracking for about the same number of teams to end up on the open bid list with 5+ wins.  While I would predict a few (probably 5 or less) teams to get bids with 4.5 wins, as the first team to bid from their program, with a high CS… the event of open bids extending to teams at 4-4 is exceedingly unlikely.  It’s why teams at 4 wins aren’t even listed on the open bid list right now.

You know the big difference between a year like 2013 and now is just the number of teams competing at Regionals. In 2013 you had about 550 teams compete. This year we’re on track for about 650. Yet the number of bids in play remains the same. When you have more teams competing for the same amount of bids, the cutoff point for how much it takes to get a bid naturally raises.

The only way a team with 4 wins has a path is if we see a crazy outlier year from C or D teams getting bids, we see a crazy outlier year in terms of the stratification of Regionals results (think lots of teams at 8-0 or 7-1, and conversely 1-7 or 0-8, leaving few teams in the middle at 4.5 or 5 to go on the open bid list), or if a large amount of bid-receiving teams are forced to decline their bids due to Covid travel restrictions from their respective universities.
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Mon Feb 14, 2022 11:24 pm
Ghost of Perjuries Past wrote:
Sir Mocksalot wrote:So we basically started this year off with an entire regionals worth of open bids.

The better way to think of it would be 4 Regionals worth of bids since it’s 6 bids per Regional this year.

Sir Mocksalot wrote:Should certainly see some 4-4 teams survive then I imagine.

Hate to burst your bubble because you seem interested in this possibility, but this is highly, highly, highly unlikely.  While we’re starting with a lot of open bids, you still have the same number of overall bids to orcs as always, and close to the same number of teams competing for them.  If the amount of open bids created by C/D teams in the past holds steady, we should be tracking for about 50 open bids overall.  We’re also tracking for about the same number of teams to end up on the open bid list with 5+ wins.  While I would predict a few (probably 5 or less) teams to get bids with 4.5 wins, as the first team to bid from their program, with a high CS… the event of open bids extending to teams at 4-4 is exceedingly unlikely.  It’s why teams at 4 wins aren’t even listed on the open bid list right now.

You know the big difference between a year like 2013 and now is just the number of teams competing at Regionals.  In 2013 you had about 550 teams compete.  This year we’re on track for about 650.  Yet the number of bids in play remains the same.  When you have more teams competing for the same amount of bids, the cutoff point for how much it takes to get a bid naturally raises.

The only way a team with 4 wins has a path is if we see a crazy outlier year from C or D teams getting bids, we see a crazy outlier year in terms of the stratification of Regionals results (think lots of teams at 8-0 or 7-1, and conversely 1-7 or 0-8, leaving few teams in the middle at 4.5 or 5 to go on the open bid list), or if a large amount of bid-receiving teams are forced to decline their bids due to Covid travel restrictions from their respective universities.

That makes sense. The fact that if the bids were awarded now, several 4-4 teams would get them threw me off. Knew it was too good to be true =(
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