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Regional Predictions Empty Regional Predictions

Fri Nov 29, 2019 12:29 am
Now that regional assignments have been released, and it looks like Mock Analysis has been completed regarding the difficulty of each regional, let’s start predictions about who is breaking
out of Regionals.

Thoughts?
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Regional Predictions Empty Re: Regional Predictions

Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:28 am
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Okay, so I've spent some time looking through the Claremont Regional.

Here are my tiers based on Claremont 2019, Claremont 2018, Power Rankings 2019, Power Rankings 2020, and several fall tournaments (Santa Barbara, Tempe, Tucson, Irvine, Berkeley). If anyone has San Diego Fall TAB 2019 that would be helpful. If you know of any other invitational where a lot of these teams showed up, that would be helpful too. I did try to order them within-group as well, so feel free to comment on that. I think there could be some argument for some teams swapping between Lucky and Liminal-Low. I'd bee happy to discuss.

First-Out - Almost Definitely Going to make it
Liminal-High - Strong possibility. I expect half or more of these teams to make it
Liminal-Low - Decent possibility. I expect 1 or 2 of these teams to make it
Lucky - They could maybe make it if they stack well and avoid good teams
Doubt It - Without major improvements or restructuring or somehow only hitting the worst teams, they will not make it
?? - Insufficient Information. High letter teams are hard to guess at since its hard to pin them down to specific invitational data.

First Out
1. UCLA A
2. UCSB A
Liminal-High
3. UCSB B
4. Pomona A
5. Cal Poly SLO A
6. UCLA D (It's miswritten on the AMTA site. Based on the # I think it's supposed to be D)
Liminal-Low
7. Cal Poly Pomona A
8. Pomona C
9. Scripps A  
Lucky
10. Redlands A
11. Occidental A
12. Claremont McKenna A
Doubt It
13. Occidental B
14. Mt. St. Mary's
15. Claremont Mckenna B
16. Cal Poly Pomona B
17. Scripps B
18. Redlands B
19. Chaffey
???
W. Fresno E
X. ASU E
Y. ASU F
Z. Cal Poly SLO D

Edit/ Chaffey re-placed based solely on their Claremont 2019 performance. No fall data could be located. Discussion added below

Why UCSB B, Pomona C, and UCLA D so high?

Each of these are good schools with reasonable Fall Records. Each one also has an additional slight benefit- the same thing that hurts all of the A teams that brought lower teams to this tournament. There are 24 teams at this tournament including the Bye. Minus yourself that's 23 potential matchups. Not being able to hit any of Pomona A, UCSB A, and UCLA A is obviously beneficial. Not being able to hit Claremont McKenna B, SLO D, CPP B, or Scripps B increases the likelihood of getting a difficult matchup. This benefits semi-competitive low-letter teams and hurts semi-competitive A teams. It's a small benefit, but when you're UCSB B and there's only 2 teams you really don't want to hit, not being able to hit one of them is game-changing.

Why Redlands so low? Didn't they get to ORCS last year?

Yes, they did. They got an open bid and went to ORCS. They went 2-6 at ORCS where they tied for the lowest CS of 13 and still got a PD of -50. The only school they beat was Ithaca College, which went 0-8 with a PD of -157. They've won 2 awards this Fall that I can find, both at Tempe- a 12 team tournament where 4 ASU teams and 1 U of A team got the top 5 spots. Don't want to diss the tourny, it was 3 judge and apparently well-run. They got 7th out of 12, mostly by virtue of doing better than 3 Grand Canyon teams and the Bye.

How did they get the 4.5 bids at Claremont 2019?
They dropped R1 to Cal Poly Pomona A
They dropped -1 and tied R2 to Mt. St. Mary's, a team that went 1-6-1
They picked up 2 with a +49/+1 in R3 against Chaffey, who also went 1-6-1 at the tournament.
They picked up a close win +1/+5 against Scripps B in R4 who went 2-6

Their CS was 9.5. This was not a great run. This was luck to hit 3 of the weakest teams at the tournament. And they didn't even win by that much. +1 means if one person had done even a little worse you would have lost.

Lol, this went way too long
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Regional Predictions Empty Re: Regional Predictions

Wed Dec 04, 2019 3:01 pm
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Also from what I’ve heard Redlands hit a completely split GCU team that wasn’t stacked as of then. I’m not sure if we can sleep on them either as they did break out of Colorado’s regional last year even if we didn’t get to see their performances at ORCS. This seems like an interesting regional as well. Also, at last year’s Colorado Regional the highest ranked team was the bye indicating a very top heavy structure and GCU our placed U of A B even picking up two ballots over UT Dallas and splitting with Colorado A.
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Regional Predictions Empty Re: Regional Predictions

Wed Dec 04, 2019 3:06 pm
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I do agree with you and UCLA D and Pomona. If I remember Pomona typically does well at regionals if they don’t break out (I believe last year they were either 6-2 or 5-3) so it’s very likely they will break out. As far as ORCS UCLA is always ranked at the top although losing Kuang might impact them more than people are anticipating.
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Regional Predictions Empty Re: Regional Predictions

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:17 pm
I almost want to put Claremont McKenna A higher up, since they've actually done better than Scripps this fall. My main concern about Claremont McKenna is that they are hosting Claremont and sending all of their teams to Claremont. Even though Regionals get AMTA reps, its not like you don't have to do judge recruitment, catering, room reservations, dealing with day-of crises, doing room sweeps and final set-ups, helping teams navigate the campus, and generally being around during the tournament. I don't think they have some large coaching staff to manage it all for them. Considering how early the tournament is, it's really going to cut into their ability to be prepared.

ASU used to send some of their higher teams to other regionals. This year their A and C teams are going to San Diego. Pomona used to send their A team to Tempe so they could manage the Claremont Regional back when they hosted. Who is helping the AMTA reps with Claremont during that weekend?
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Regional Predictions Empty Re: Regional Predictions

Fri Dec 06, 2019 2:49 pm
Birch wrote:Why Redlands so low? Didn't they get to ORCS last year?

Yes, they did. They got an open bid and went to ORCS. They went 2-6 at ORCS where they tied for the lowest CS of 13 and still got a PD of -50. The only school they beat was Ithaca College, which went 0-8 with a PD of -157. They've won 2 awards this Fall that I can find, both at Tempe- a 12 team tournament where 4 ASU teams and 1 U of A team got the top 5 spots. Don't want to diss the tourny, it was 3 judge and apparently well-run. They got 7th out of 12, mostly by virtue of doing better than 3 Grand Canyon teams and the Bye.

I agree with your assessment of Redlands' chances here. They split against an unstacked Pepperdine and dropped 4 of 6 ballots at Tempe invitational to ASU D and E. Redlands is a promising program from what I've heard, but such a new school that they'd need to replicate the lucky draw from last year to stand a chance at getting out of Regionals. I don't think they've been around for too long. Their style is rather similar to GCU's in that both schools have the ability to punch above their weight class on occasion and swipe a ballot from a better "regarded" team, but I'd err a little pessimistic on the odds of either team breaking out of Regionals. (GCU, to my understanding, has experienced some serious internal turmoil in the past year, and had been disbanded over the summer before being re-established with significant turnover.)
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Regional Predictions Empty Re: Regional Predictions

Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:18 pm
Yes I did hear that happened to GCU. It’s a shame for sure. But we will have to see how they perform this year before we see the consequences of the turmoil. Although from what I heard, they had that same turmoil last year and still broke out. But also, I’m not sure which teams from Colorado could beat them beyond  Air Force, U of A and possibly Colorado College. It’s going to be an interesting regional for sure.
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Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:27 pm
I could definitely see a repeat of last year occurring especially with the likely top Heavy Bye Bust Team.
Air Force
U of A
Denver
U of A
Colorado College
GCU

This is just my thoughts, but again just depends on pairings for sure.
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