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2020 Regionals Analysis Week 2 Empty 2020 Regionals Analysis Week 2

Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:17 am
Message reputation : 100% (2 votes)
Please share your own thoughts below. This is intended to start a discussion, if you have seen a team and you think we are over or under valuing them let us know! Good luck with regionals! If you aren't on here, then prove us wrong! If you made our list, then prove us right! - MockAnalysisIsMyDrug

Buffalo: (24 Teams) ‘The Best and the Rest’ (MAIMD Ranking 22/32)
- 3 teams in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 5 in top 200

First in:
Cornell A
Wesleyan A
Hamilton A

Bubble:
Cornell B
Syracuse A
Hamilton B
Colgate

Initial Thoughts:
Normally, we would say that Cornell was the obvious favorite in this region after their stellar performance at nationals last year. But their absence from the invite season this fall means that they may be a bit weaker than usual with only January invites to get them the polish and preparation they need. We still expect them to qualify but they probably won’t be the unstoppable force they usually are at regionals. In particular, we expect their B team (which is probably younger and more affected by the lack of fall training and experience) to take a bit of a hit. Teams hoping to break from this region should not lapse into complacency just because Cornell is a bit weaker this year though. They are joined by Wesleyan University who qualified two teams to NCT last year and managed to place on at 8th in their division. We would not be surprised if the top round in round 3 is between these two power teams.

Beneath this group we have Hamilton which has consistently qualified to ORCS in recent years and consistently taken between 3 and 4.5 ballots there (putting them around the middle of the ORCS pack). Barring an extremely unfortunate schedule (e.g. hitting both Cornell and Wesleyan in succession) we expect Hamilton to qualify easily out of this tournament. Behind Hamilton we have Syracuse and Colgate both of whom were performing pretty well a few years ago but have struggled recently. Colgate failed to field a team at regionals last year. Syracuse managed a 3-5 record at ORCS in 2019 but has been basically absent from the invite season this year. Both of these teams could very well qualify but at this point we are unsure.

Overall, this is a region with a numerical drop off. It has one of the toughest top groups in the country and is the only region to have three teams ranked in the top 50. This means that the top rounds are likely to be battles of some of the top programs that you don’t usually see until at least the ORCS level. In turn, this may make for some odd brackets if these teams hit each other early, resulting in one of them being lower in the cards than usual and a danger to unsuspecting mid range teams. On the other hand, this region is tied for the lowest number of top 200 teams and has one of the lowest average ranks across the board. This may result in teams having widely varying schedules. On the bright side, if you lose to one of the titans your life is probably about to get much easier for the rest of the tournament.

Good luck to our friends from Canada in their first year: The University of Toronto!

Team to watch: Hamilton A
Hamilton is one of those teams that’s consistently a danger to top programs at ORCS without having made nationals in the last few years themselves. They are very consistent at making ORCS and placing mid pack. But in the last few years, they have also picked off ballots from a number of teams that would eventually qualify or just barely fail to qualify (sometimes because of the ballots Hamilton picked off) including teams from Rochester, Cornell (multiple times), Ohio State, Yale, and Harvard. If past history is a guide we expect Hamilton to have no trouble qualifying a team out of regionals.

This year they have had pretty consistently middling records. With six fall tournament results (two at top tournaments), they we mostly within the 3-5 ballot range. The exception was at their most recent tournament Scarlet Knight where they had one team go 2-6 and another go 6.5-1.5. This may be an indication that they have stacked or that one of their teams has simply hit on great chemistry, or it could be a fluke. In any case, the general consistency of the program in the mid range of some fairly competitive invitationals leaves us with our lingering confidence in their success at regionals, although not particularly confident about their chances of making past ORCS.

Hamilton may also be an interesting team to have around later in the season on the new ORCS pairing system, assuming they do qualify out of ORCS, because their TPR is lower than their danger. This is a program that is inconsistent and so doesn’t qualify and gets bracketed low in the standings. They drop ballots to teams that are ranked about the same as them and sometimes ballots to teams ranked much lower. But they can also punch up and may be the reason that an A bracket team drops a ballot in a round they expected to be safe.


Evanston: (24 Teams) ‘The Gauntlet' (MAIMD Ranking 1/32)
- 2 teams in top 50, 4 teams in top 100, 10 in top 200

First in:
Michigan A
Northwood A
Illinois A
Michigan B

Bubble:
Northern Illinois A
Northwestern C
North Central
Notre Dame B
St. Norbert
Illinois State

Initial Thoughts:
Welcome to the hardest regional in the country. The top of this tournament is bad, but not uncommonly so. Two teams in the top 50 is unlucky but there are a lot of regionals that can boast that. What sets Evanston apart is just how many teams there are who have done moderately well in recent years. Evanston four teams in the top 100 (behind only Owings Mills and Wilmington), and 10 teams in the top 200 (the maximum number). This results in Evanston having the highest TPR total and the second highest TPR average out of all the regionals. In other words, if you are at this tournament, don’t expect many easy rounds. Adding on to that is the fact that Evanston is a brand new regionals and Northwestern hasn’t hosted an invite in recent memory. This means that the judging pool, while it could be great, is also likely to be fairly green. This level of difficulty combined with new judges may produce some weird results.

The top of this region is clearly dominated by Northwood and Michigan, both of whom are teams that perennially make nationals and do well. Michagian may have had a bad draw and failed to qualify last year, but don’t let that fool you. They are coming off a stellar invite season in which they managed top 2 placements at EKU, Spartan Throwdown and, most importantly, GAMTI and placed at both Black Squirrel and Yale. Beneath this pack we have a group of teams all of whom have been in contention for nationals over the last few years and have made it at least one out of the last three: Michigan B, Northern Illinois (although NIU seems to be suffering significantly since the loss of Katie Harper), and Illinois A.

What makes this region so scary though is the sheer number of teams following that who have made it to ORCS recently and will be hoping to again. North Central, Notre Dame B, St. Norbert, and Illinois State are all in the top 200 and Elmhurst and Northwood B have made ORCs recently too. To make matters worse, Northwestern C and D are here and Northwestern seems to have been farming a deep program recently. If both A and B can make nationals two years in a row, C and D are not going to be teams to be trifled with.


Team to watch: Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois had a spike a few years ago in which they made nationals several times in a row in 2016 and 2017 and nearly made it a third time in 2018. Coached by Mitch Pickerill, this team saw a rapid upswing a few years ago leading to that burst of NCT success. Last year, however, NIU suddenly seemed to falter. They didn’t qualify out of regional and only snuck through on an open bid earned by their B team.

This fall they have had less than stellar performances at their harder invites and middling performances at their weaker ones. The best record they have put up is 5-3 despite attending a wide range of invites which would not be enough to qualify. However, they had shown improvement in recent weeks, even taking a full round off of Northwood and Notre Dameboth of whom are in the qualifying range for this regional. Thus, while early signs were somewhat grim, NIU could still be in contention to do quite well this year. Let’s see if last year was a fluke or a sign of troubled times to come.



Houston: (20 Teams) ‘The Urban Sprawl Brawl' (MAIMD Ranking 12/32)
- 0 teams in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 10 in top 200

First in:
Baylor A
Texas A&M A
Louisiana, Monroe A

Bubble:
Rice A
Baylor B
Millsaps A
St. Thomas A
Louisiana, Monroe B


Initial Thoughts:
This year’s Houston Regional is a bit of a puzzle–it’s the only Regional to feature zero top-50 teams, with AMTA making up for this by loading it with a bunch of good-but-not-great teams (only Houston and Evanston have a full ten teams in the Top 200), leaving it with the highest average overall TPR of any Regional.

The only teams we see having a clear edge in Houston are the ever-consistent Baylor, led by their President Brandon Cooper and coming off a strong 5.5 ballot performance by their B team at Memphis, narrowly missing nationals, and an A&M team that broke through last year with a 7-ballot performance at that same Memphis ORCS. A&M in particular had a fascinating run last year, going from not qualifying for ORCS in 2018 to advancing to Memphis in 2019, splitting with Rhodes A and then absolutely crushing Rice A by a combined 41 points, earning them a bid to Nationals. While A&M is for the most part returning the same corps that took them to the NCT, including President Christina Morrison, Bridget Davies, and standout Sophomore Lee Webb, they are not without flaws. Their 4-12 performance at the NCT showed that they remained outmatched by top teams, and their invitational season this year has been solid but not outstanding.

Past those two, we have a variety of teams in the 100-200 TPR range that are fairly strong including Louisiana Monroe, St. Thomas, Rice, and Millsaps, along with a few teams that advance with less consistency like LSU, Houston, and HBU. Houston thus features a large bucket of mid-tier teams of different flavors: some steady competitors like ULM and host-program St. Thomas; some young up-and-comers like Rice A (whose B team may be something to watch for as well, having advanced from Dallas comfortably last year) and A&M B; and a program that is seemingly on the decline in Millsaps, our team to watch. With so many teams of similar strength clustered together, the difference between triumph and disappointment for a dozen or so teams, all expecting to advance, is likely to come down to a few tough splits and close sweeps.


Team to watch: Millsaps
In the Larry D. Estridge division of the 2016 National Championship Tournament, only two schools were able to take a single ballot (out of five) off of eventual national champion Yale – a team that is now widely considered to be the strongest ever fielded. One was Rhodes. The other, Millsaps College.

There are actually many similarities between the two schools: both are small liberal arts colleges (Rhodes currently enrolls 2,030 undergraduates, though Millsaps is even smaller at 910), both are located in the South, hundreds of miles from an AMTA power cluster, and both are moderately competitive academically, with acceptance rates currently sitting at a bit over 50%. But while Rhodes keeps on being Rhodes, irrelevance is knocking on Millsaps’ door. Once a top-50 school after a stunning rise from 2013 to 2017, Millsaps has declined precipitously, going 4-2-2 in last year’s Jackson Regionals and taking just three ballots at ORCS off an open bid to Memphis with an ugly PD of -76.

Millsaps’ performance during this year’s invite season hasn’t given much reason for confidence either, sending both their teams to the Ricebowl (a tournament that featured many of the teams that will be attending the Houston Regional), with their (perhaps unstacked) A and B teams taking 1.5 and 2.5 ballots respectively, and sending one team to Capital City, which ended with a record of 2-6. Their strongest showing so far has been a 4-4 finish at Mid-South, with two of those ballots lost to an ascendant South Carolina and another the result of a split with a solid Tennessee team.

While the Houston field doesn’t have any 800-pound gorillas (aka Rhodes), as discussed above it is deceptively competitive. Millsaps has performed worse at ORCS than they did the year prior for three years running, and if they’re not careful there’s a good chance they could be left out entirely for the first time since 2013.


Indianapolis: (25 Teams) ‘The Hoosier Hoedown' (MAIMD Ranking 20/32)
- 2 teams in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 6 in top 200

First in:
Miami A
Miami B
Hillsdale A

Bubble:
Notre Dame A
Notre Dame C
Hillsdale B
Belmont A
IUPUI A
DePaul A
Purdue A


Initial Thoughts:
This is a regional with a very predictable top dog: Miami University. Fresh off a season in which they qualified two teams to nationals, took second in their division, and graduated very few people, we expect Miami A and B to sweep through this region with ease.

Beneath them we have a couple of programs who have seen some historical success at the ORCs and Low NCT level but have struggled in recent years to break through in both Notre Dame and Hillsdale. Of these two programs we would be more confident in Hillsdale given their strong showing at invites this fall and given Notre Dame’s patchy performance over the last few years.

We then have some teams that do not have the kind of historical record that the top programs at this region have but are up and comers on the circuit. Belmont made it to ORCS last year and took three ballots (a pretty good record for a first time attendee) after not making it to ORCS for a number of years. Purdue only finished at regionals with a 3-5 record last year, but turned heads for how well they did as a brand new program (more on this below). IUPUI has only been on the circuit for a couple of years, but they already host an invite and a regional and they have already managed a orcs run two years ago. Any of these teams could sweep up some of the spots that the major powers in this regional leave behind.

Good luck to the new school in this region, the Spartans of Missouri Baptist University!

Team to watch: Purdue A
Purdue is an unranked program in their second year of competition who has never broken from regionals. So why should we be telling you to watch them? We expect Purdue to do better than their stats and relative inexperience would indicate. Purdue is one of the two big state schools in a state with a strong high school mock program and a number of high schools that take mock extremely seriously (there is one high school that has 12 teams within one school!). It was partially due to this talent pool that Indiana University (the other state school in IN) was able to rise from brand new program to top ten at NCT within just a couple of years. Last year, Purdue formed a program, competed at no invites and managed to go 3-5 at regionals but their two losses were to the University of Michigan and the University of Cincinnati (both of whom should be expected to wreck any new team). This year, Purdue managed a 6-2 record at the Indy Mock Hundred which included beating a team from Dayton and taking a ballot off of a team from Kentucky, both of whom are programs that have made nationals in recent memory. In other words, this is a team with strong incoming talent with the potential to exceed expectations.


Richmond: (21 Teams) ‘Return to Glory’ (MAIMD Ranking 9/32)
- 2 teams in top 50, 4 teams in top 100, 8 in top 200

First in:
Duke A
Howard A
Richmond A

Bubble:
Howard B
Duke C
Liberty A
Elon A
Patrick Henry C

Initial Thoughts:
A region of decent difficulty, Richmond loses one national power (UVA) but adds another one to replace it in the form of Duke University. The Blue Devils highlight this region as a team who earned success at Nationals last year and returned all but one of that team. This team boasts both experience and talent, with competitors like Tristan Malhotra, Sonali Mehta, and Emil Zakarian to anchor each and every round. Under the leadership of two time All-American Eric Roytman, Duke has already shown this year that they can win at the highest level by being the only team to beat Rhodes at GAMTI. Rhodes would go on to win the tournament. We expect Duke to coast through this region.

Beyond Duke, teams like Howard A and Richmond A bring some more punch to the table. This region has seven total A teams, which means that there is no easy route out of Richmond. Especially with the new rule that AMTA passed, meaning that there will be six bids out of Regionals, it means that there is no guarantee for an A team to not be left out in the cold.

Team to watch: Richmond A
Richmond A has evolved a lot over the past few years. Richmond of years past was headlined by All-American Jabari Lucas and TBC competitor Dylan McAuley. Now strong competitors like All-American Aquilla Maliyekkal and two time Gladiator finalist Meghana Melkote support Richmond A. This team didn’t make it out of ORCS last year, but is going to be hunting hard to get back to Nats in Chicago this year.

So far this season they have seen success at a number of strong invitationals. They placed both their A and C teams at the Wake Forest Demon Deacon Invitational. Taking first and second place with two 7-1 records. They Also took first at the inaugural Soda City Trials, one of our top invites from the fall with a perfect 8-0 record. They took fourth at Colonial Classic with a 6-2 record to round out the season. This strong showing stands them in good stead to sail through regionals with ease.

San Diego: (19 Teams) ‘Bubble Trouble’ (MAIMD Ranking 21/32)
- 2 teams in top 50, 2 team in top 100, 6 in top 200

First in:
UC Davis A
UC Irvine A
USC A

Bubble:
Arizona State A
Irvine C
Loyola Marymount A
UCLA E
UC San Diego B
UC Riverside A

Initial Thoughts:
This is the newest California regional in a while. Though this is where regionals was traditionally held, it hasn’t occurred since 2014. At the top, we have Davis A, UCI A, and USC A. Though Davis A is the only Nationals returner, USC A and UCI A are traditionally in that ballpark. UCI has suffered the loss of most of their A Team bench from last year. However last year’s B team went 4-4 at last year’s Santa Monica ORCS, convincingly proving their capability of getting out a regional tournament. More recent showings however haven’t been the strongest including 3-5, 4-4 at Mocktopia and 3-1, 2-2, 2-2 and 2.5-1.5 at Anteater. So nothing spectacular. USC A has shown similar results. The gap in talent between some of our First In talent and some of the teams in the bubble list is not vast. Arizona State can take ballots off any of the First In teams on a good day. We can expect UCLA E to keep up their streak of adding another open bid to the list. In addition to some of the bigger programs, we have programs like LMU and Riverside who usually get one competitive team and one team to allow newer competitors to gain experience. Both teams have had good performances over the past two years with Riverside taking 4 ballots in Santa Monica two years ago and LMU taking 3 last year. Since then, both have lost some of their award winning attorneys so depending on who they play, we could see either team grabbing one of the final spots.

Team to watch: Davis A
This Davis team is one to look out for because this is the most experienced group they’ve produced in a few years. President Ariel Mendlin is entering her final year along with All-National witness Shasta Fields. Both are looking to earn a bid back to nationals in their final year, and they’re joined by a majority of their team from last year including AAMTI double threat Jafar Khalfani-Bey, Kyle Knight, and Aarya Chidambaram all of whom are entering their third or fourth year on the team as well. The reason they’re one to watch is because while Davis doesn’t seem to struggle at the regional or ORCS level, they seem to struggle on the national level. One team that does not struggle at the national level is UC Irvine and given this small regional, it’s not unlikely the two face off. With debatably the most top-heavy regionals on the west coast, a bad draw with UC Irvine and/or USC could eliminate their road to Chicago sooner than they expected. One thing in their favor is their strong showing at AAMTI. They sent three teams who all performed extremely well! They earned second place as well as eighth place and they took home 5 individual awards. We expect Davis A to do very well in San Diego.

Seattle: (23 Teams) ‘The B Hive' (MAIMD Ranking 15/32)
- 1 teams in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 9 in top 200

First in:
Berkeley A
Berkeley B
Washington A

Bubble:
Washington B
Portland A
Portland B
Gonzaga A
Oregon A
Oregon B
Chemeketa

Initial Thoughts:
Seattle is always an interesting region because it is so far from the next closest regionals that the big programs are forced to send all of their teams to one regional. Here, the powerhouse programs (Washington, Gonzaga, Oregon and Portland) make up 13 of the 23 teams. Add the two Berkeley teams in and it becomes a very interesting tournament.

The biggest variable in this regional is all of the B teams. While most of them are competitive, the B teams from Berkeley, Washington, Gonzaga, Oregon and Portland all have the advantage of not having to worry about playing their A teams. So while a team like Washington A theoretically could be stronger than a team like Berkeley B, Washington A could still face Berkeley A and lose a bid while Berkeley B would be able to play other teams. This has played a huge role in this regionals over the past few years. Last year, Oregon earned three bids and a large reason for that was because their teams didn’t have to worry about facing each other. Their B and C teams had CS’s of 15 and 12 respectively which made it significantly easier to earn bids. It was a somewhat similar case two years ago when Berkeley earned first and second place and as the two strongest teams, they didn’t have to worry about facing each other either.

With 6 bids and 5 strong programs (in addition to Oregon State, Chemeketa and Reed), we expect at least one of these large programs to be left bidless while at least one earns two or more bids. As to which program will be in which category is something we’ll have to wait till February to find out.

Team to watch: Oregon B
While at this point it’s unknown who will be on Oregon A vs. Oregon B, Oregon B is a team to keep an eye on. After not earning a bid in 2018, Oregon came back swinging earning 3 bids last year. The thing to note about both years is that their A team and B team seem to perform similarly. In 2018, both teams earned 4 wins. In 2019, both teams earned 7 wins at regionals and 3 wins at ORCS. And this year, both teams placed 2nd and 3rd respectively at Cowtown Classic in Davis separated by ½ wins. The fact that Oregon A and B seem to be similarly skilled and they don't have to face each other means that its equally likely that both teams earn bids as it is that neither team earns a bid. It’s also very likely that their B team could earn a bid while their A team doesn’t.

State College: (24 Teams) ‘The UVA Crusade’ (MAIMD Ranking 7/32)
- 2 teams in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 7 in top 200

First in:
UVA A
UVA B
Rochester A

Bubble:
Maryland A
Juniata A
Cornell C
Dickinson A
Penn State C

Initial Thoughts:
The path out of State College is simple this year: Don’t hit UVA. UVA seems to be the team that drew the short straw and is going to be forced to travel quite a bit for Regionals and ORCS. That being said, they shouldn’t find much trouble here with a >20 point drop off in TPR points between them and the next best team. Behind them, we have Rochester. Rochester is a team that is hard to predict. After taking just 4.5 ballots at Regionals last year, they squeaked out an open bid and promptly made it back to nationals, go figure. At this point, Rochester has been strong enough for long enough that we have confidence that they will find a way at State College. Cornell C is where we expect Cornell’s fall hiatus to have the most effect. Not being able to recruit or train your members up in the fall is likely to leave Cornell without many strong young members, and the members that they do have on C will not have had the fall to polish. In past years Cornell C would’ve likely been a first-in team out of a regional this top-heavy, but this year they remain a bubble team as we just have no idea what to expect from them.

Maryland A was one of the strongest teams in the country for decades, but they have been declining steadily for the past 8 years or so. At this point it is fair to say that they are not the team that they once were, although they have had a stronger invitational season this year than we have seen from them in quite some time. Their performance this fall, highlighted by a 6-2, 22.5 CS finish at the Quaker Classic and strong showings by both teams at Charm City, has them rounding out our first-in teams. Dickinson has been a team that has ridden along the edge of regionals for some time now. While they seem to get between 4 and 5 ballots every year, Dickinson showed off some strength at Quaker Classic this year, finishing 6-2 with an impressive win over Hamilton A. We are not sure if Dickinson will continue their strong invitational season or if it will be a return to norm for them at regionals. For many of these bubble teams it will likely all come down to the schedule.

Team to watch: Juniata
Juniata was one of the teams that surprised people last year by getting a bid to ORCS in just their first year. In just their first regional they managed to knock ballots off of teams from both Columbia and NYU and to lose by just two points to Cornell. Their A team, despite a record that included three national calibre programs managed a 4-4 record. Their B team managed a 6.5-1.5 record and a bid including taking both ballots off of Cornell B (a big feet for a B team in a programs first year). Sadly, it seems that they have graduated some of their founding members, including Haley Walker. Despite the loss, they’ve had an impressive invitational showing. They traveled to Berkeley and showed they could compete with teams across the country, placing 4th going 6-2 and taking ballots off of Cal. We hope to see them continue to surprise and retrace their founders’ steps back to ORCS.


Wheaton: (24 Teams) ‘Revenge Regionals’ (MAIMD Ranking 18/32)
- 2 teams in top 50, 4 teams in top 100, 7 in top 200

First in:
Indiana A
Wheaton A
Chicago B

Bubble:
Chicago C
Loyola, Chicago A
Macalester A
Macalester B
Indiana B
Wheaton B
Iowa C


Initial Thoughts:
The top of this tournament is made up of three teams with something to prove after last year. Wheaton A had the ORCS from hell last year, somehow managing to draw four teams all of whom had been to Nationals in the past three years, all of whom were ranked top 8 in the region, and two of whom ended up advancing. Even with that schedule they managed a 5-3 record, and were swept by no one. This year they have lost their all-star, Mary-Preston Austin, but we expect the remaining team to come back with a chip on their shoulder, ready for the road to Chicago. Indiana came off of two years in which they made nationals and placed top 10, only to face an ORCS schedule in which they played three teams that had been to nationals the year before, two of which ended up advancing. They too will be fighting to return to their former prominence and we expect them to be nothing to be trifled with. In that same ORCS, Chicago B managed a 5-1 record in the first three rounds, one of only 4 teams to do so, and breaking ties by CS, they were the highest ranked team in that tournament. Even more impressive, they managed to do this against three teams that either had been to NCT in the last two years or would go in 2019, two of whom ended up qualifying. They went into a power protected round 4 against a 2.5-3.5 Cornell College B, and managed to drop both ballots to a team that, statistically was the weakest they played. They did not qualify. We expect that all three of these teams will be competing with a vengeance this year so woe to anyone who winds up in a top round.

Behind this group we have a pack of teams that very consistently gets to ORCS and then goes no further: Macalester, Loyola, and Chicago C. All three have had consistently solid records at regionals over the years and we expect them to do very well this year too. If there is a dangerous group that might sneak up on them though, it’s the B and C teams from the schools we have already mentioned that will also be vying for bids. These teams will likely to be younger and less experienced than their older counterparts but will still have the benefit of their program’s training strength and these teams have performed well at regionals in past years.

There are also a number of new teams in this region. Good luck to the Trolls of Trinity Christian College, and the Vikings of Lawrence A and B.

Team to watch: Loyola, Chicago A
Loyola is in an interesting position this year. This regionals is basically their ORCS. If they get a bid out of regionals they will be going to Nationals regardless of their ORCS performance. Given Loyola’s performance in recent years, we suspect that this year may be the first year that the NCT host bid comes into play. Unlike UCLA in 2017 who basically always qualify to NCT in their own right or Hamilton in 2018 or Elizabethtown in 2019 who rarely qualify from regionals, Loyola has been very consistent in recent years in their pattern of qualifying out of ORCS but missing NCT by a few ballots. Note that this may also be nice for the rest of the field, as it means that Loyola could give us an open bid to NCT to even out the numbers. For Loyola, this means that regionals is going to be the time to fight like hell, because it would allow them to break into that national level of teams (an experience that will undoubtedly be useful down the line).

This season, they have had consistently middling records, always placing one team with at least a 4-4 record (and only having one team overall finish with 3-5), and never going better than 5-3. However, their records have improved overall throughout this season (pushing more towards those 5-3 records which would put them in qualifying range at regionals). It should also be noted that the tournaments they have been attending (Red Cedar, Scarlet & Grey, Dairyland, Cornshucker and Indy Mock Hundred) often have a higher difficulty in terms of overall field than this regionals does. As a result we think that Loyola has a very high chance of qualifying out of this region.
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2020 Regionals Analysis Week 2 Empty Re: 2020 Regionals Analysis Week 2

Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:54 am
I've heard USC lost a lot of their current seniors. I've seen a few of them judging at a tournament instead of competing or watching their teams. I've seen a few of their competing teams too, and they seem to lack the powerhouse members that made them so universally scary in previous years. They had a lot of new people who probably have a lot of potential, but are going to need at least another year before they become a serious threat. Rumor is most of their Senior class staged a walk-out from the program. They've still got a lot of resources, so maybe they can put together a fairly competitive A team, but I'd imagine that this is mostly a rebuilding year for them.

A lot of typical California powerhouses seem to have dropped in power- Berkely is sending their best teams to Seattle, USC lost their current Seniors, UCI lost their former Seniors. I've heard rumors that even UCLA took a hit. With another Regional in the mix and Claremont no longer the unnecessarily massive tourney it was, I'm excited to see how California shakes up.
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2020 Regionals Analysis Week 2 Empty Re: 2020 Regionals Analysis Week 2

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:46 pm
Cornell B dropped. Meaning Buffalo becomes 10x easier
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2020 Regionals Analysis Week 2 Empty Re: 2020 Regionals Analysis Week 2

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