2020 Regionals Analysis Week 3

Please share your own thoughts below. This is intended to start a discussion, if you have seen a team and you think we are over or under valuing them let us know! Good luck with regionals! If you aren't on here, then prove us wrong! If you made our list, then prove us right! - MockAnalysisIsMyDrug

Dayton: (24 Teams) ‘All We See Is C’ (MAIMD Ranking 2/32)
- 2 teams in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 6 in top 200

First in:
Ohio State A
Penn State A
Dayton A


Bubble:
Penn State B
Miami C
Eastern Michigan A
Eastern Kentucky A
Cincinnati C
Michigan State C

Initial Thoughts:
C teams will dictate how challenging this regional actually is. There are six C and D teams that could all play a major role in not only who earns a bid, but also how open bids factor in. At the top of this regional are Ohio State A and Penn State A. Both of these teams consistently compete at Nationals and we expect that they should have no trouble advancing. We’d love to hear them in a third-round matchup, and we expect that most of the building wouldn’t be able to avoid hearing that--these two teams are known as being the loudest in the country. While a little less consistent, Dayton should also be able to get through without too much trouble. After that are the C teams from Miami, Michigan State and Cincinnati who placed respectably at their regionals last year and will be a threat to take ballots off good teams this year. In addition we have Penn State B and Eastern Michigan A who consistently get to ORCS and Eastern Kentucky A who is far less consistent. Overall, this could be a pretty predictable regional or some C teams could majorly upset the favorites. Either way, with this many top-tier programs and only six bids, it’s only going to be fun for the spectators.

Team to watch: Eastern Kentucky A
Eastern Kentucky is a team that has taken a pretty rapid plunge in the last three years. As of 2017, they were breaking even at nationals. The next year they only took 2 ballots at ORCS. The next they never broke from regionals. On the other hand, this year they went 6-2 at William and Mary’s Colonial Classic facing three teams from programs that made nationals last year, 7-0-1 at Illinois State, and 5-3 at their own tournament. This is not the set of records you would expect from a program that has lost it’s touch and won’t be making it out of regionals. Thus we have to ask ourselves, is this the year that EKU makes a comeback? If so, its starts in Dayton.


Des Moines: (23 Teams) ‘Rising Powers’ (MAIMD Ranking 26/32)
- 1 team in top 50, 2 teams in top 100, 7 in top 200

First in:
Chicago A
Wash U St Louis A
Illinois B

Bubble:
Wisconsin, Madison A/B
Chicago D
St Louis A
Grinnell A

Initial Thoughts:
At the top end, this tournament hosts one of the most intimidating teams in the Midwest. Chicago A is coming off of a third place finish in their division at NCT last year and returning much of their talent, and after a third place overall finish in their own elite invitational last weekend, they look to be on track for another strong Nationals run. There’s a quick dropoff between Chicago and the next-ranked team, Washington University in St Louis, who have generally taken at least 4 ballots at ORCS in recent years but have had inconsistent success beyond that. Wash U has shown more consistency this invitational season, posting winning records at every invite they’ve attended and achieving several 7-1 records, so we hope to see them continue that trend into the competitive season.

And then we have another drop off before a cluster of teams ranked between 100 and 200 in TPR, making this a relatively mid-heavy tournament. We expect a competitive fight for the last few bids between several programs who’ve made ORCS on and off in the past 3 years.

Another unusual factor in this region is the shortage of C and D teams. There are only two total C+ teams in Des Moines, and only one (Chicago D) is from a program that regularly qualifies two or more teams to ORCS. So there won’t be as many upsets from unranked C and D teams as we often see at regionals, as the unranked teams are ones that we haven’t seen much of yet in past years. Even so, past performance of C teams is rarely a strong indicator of future performance as players on C teams from less established programs typically move up or out after a year or two, so these teams could surprise the competition. It should make the scramble for bids in the middle of the pack all the more exciting, and leaves room for some programs who haven’t qualified to ORCS before to earn their spot.

Team to watch: Wisconsin, Madison
Wisconsin, Madison seems to be on an upward trend. Over the last three years, they’ve done a little better each season, making ORCS both of the last two. In 2018 they made it on an open bid and took 2.5 ballots once there, while in 2019 they earned their own bid and improved their record to 3. Their program structure also makes them a bit of a wildcard, as they don’t stack, meaning their A or B teams come in at comparable levels and either or both could make a push to continue their improvement this season.

It’s hard to judge their progress so far in State v Ryder: they only appear on a few fall invitational tab summaries, and don’t seem to have attended anything in the spring semester, but both of their teams have posted even or winning records in their appearances so far. While they haven’t been tested against any teams like Chicago this year, they’re certainly in position to join the fight over the bottom three bids against other teams with similar TPR and invitational records. If Wisconsin, Madison can show that their trend line isn’t a fluke, we’re excited to see where they end up this season.



Jackson: (21 Teams) ‘The Jackson Six (Bids)’ (MAIMD Ranking 9/32)
- 1 team in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 7 in top 200

First in:
Georgia Tech A
Georgia B

Bubble:
Georgia Tech B
Tennessee A
Tennessee B
Vanderbilt A
Vanderbilt B
Georgia D
Middle Tennessee A

Initial Thoughts:
There is a clear top dog in Jackson this year with the Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech A. They graduated a lot of power this past year among all of Sarah Stebbins, Ben Felder, and Keyes Gilmer. But they retained some A team talent, as well as brought up some players from the B team who earned their own bid to Nationals. We expect Tech to remain a power player. Beyond that, this region has a lot of teams from historically good programs who haven’t maintained that same level of success in recent years, most notably Georgia B and D and Vanderbilt A and B. However, because there are six bids out of Jackson, we do expect to see one or two surprises.

Good luck to the new team in this region, the Bengal Tigers of Jackson State!

Team to watch: Vanderbilt A
Just a few years ago, Vanderbilt was a perennial nationals contender. But as the years have gone on, Vandy has consistently gotten less and less competitive after their top competitors graduated. We do expect that to turn around soon though. Vanderbilt still carries talent and mock experience. It boasts strong new competitors like Brendan Hayner-Slattery. We don’t know if Vandy will be able to make it to Chicago this year, but we would be surprised not to see the Commodores at the Memphis ORCS in March.

Lawrence: (23 Teams) ‘Middle-out compression’ (MAIMD Ranking 25/32)
- 1 teams in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 9 in top 200

First in:
Minnesota A
Cornell College A
Iowa A

Bubble:
South Dakota A
Cornell College B
Creighton A
Kansas A
Iowa B
Missouri A
Nebraska A
Kansas State A

Initial Thoughts:
Lawrence is a very middle-heavy regional. The field includes a lot of names that we often hear making a run at ORCS one year then missing out the next. Predicting this field is about as accurate as Shaq taking free throws. While Minnesota, Cornell College, and Iowa have all shown some consistency in the last few years. We aren’t sure if we will be seeing the Kansas that made it to nationals 3 years or the one who didn’t break regionals last year. A bunch of these middle-tier teams have made it to ORCS a few times in the past few years, but very few of them have managed to make it there consistently. With this being a regional with only 6 bids, the second 3 seem very up in the air. While of course getting a lucky schedule may determine a lot, one of the nice things about Lawrence is that there is no true buzzsaw team. The top ranked team, Minnesota, is only the 41st overall team. By not having a single team in the top 40, Lawrence should hopefully spit out the 6 that really deserve to move on rather than the 6 teams that avoided having to play the top dog.

Team to watch: Cornell College A
There is a very small part of the country that hear’s Cornell won this tournament and thinks: “Oh you mean Cornell College”, but the Rams have found their foothold in Iowa. Cornell College was a true force in the earlier part of this past decade - making it to Nationals every year from 2013-2016. They then had a pretty clear rebuilding year in 2017 where they scraped by with just 1.5 wins at ORCS. In 2018 they got back on track by just narrowly missing out on Nationals, and last year they finally returned to the dance and turned in a respectable showing. Cornell College is looking to re-assert themselves as a nationals regular from the midwest. The Lawrence regional will provide a nice tune up for them as they should have very little trouble with this field. Cornell College is also returning almost their entire nationals-qualifying roster from last year, only graduating Orgho Neogi. Most impressively, the Rams all-american witness came from a then-first year, now-sophomore, Austen Raamot. The Rams remain young this year and continue to look impressive. They are surely looking to prove that they belong at Nationals and hope to show everyone that they expect to stay a nationals-caliber team for the foreseeable future.

New Haven: (24 Teams) ‘A buncha B’s and C’s’ (MAIMD Ranking 4/32)
- 2 teams in top 50, 4 teams in top 100, 8 in top 200

First in:
Columbia A
Lafayette A
Yale C

Bubble:
Yale B
BU B
BU C
BC B
BC C
Columbia B
Quinnipiac

Initial Thoughts:
Teams that usually go to this regional may be very pleased to discover that Yale A, traditionally the power in this region, has this year been sent away. That should not be particularly comforting, however. This region is in fact harder on most metrics than it usually is. In Yale A’s place is Columbia A (not exactly an easy substitute). Lafayette A has been pretty variable over the last few years, but if they turn out to be strong this year, they can compete with the very best in the country. The rest of the top of this regionals is filled out by the B and C teams from other nationals level programs, many of which have actually been the teams to earn the bids that got their programs to nationals in recent years including teams from BU, BC, and Yale.

On its face this may not look so different from New Haven Regionals of years past. Past regionals at this site have traditionally had the A team from one really strong program and then a lot of B and C teams from other powers in the region or A teams from programs that traditionally place low to mid pack at ORCS. However, in past years this has been one of the largest regionals in the country at 30-32 teams. There have usually been a lot of unranked teams at the bottom padding the numbers and giving those top teams an easy round or two. This year, with only 24 teams, this will not be the case and the top teams will be forced to play each other.

One other odd thing you may notice is that we have put Yale C on the first in list and Yale B on the Bubble. This is because of the odd situation caused by the Yale sanctions. Yale’s sanctions allow people from the 2019 NCT team to compete at regionals but not advance, so we suspect that Yale will be putting them on their C team (the team they do not expect to advance). This means that their C team is likely to have a number of All American level competitors. On the other hand, with a large portion of their roster unable to compete at the level they should (and with some heavy graduation last year), we expect their B team to be much younger and less experienced than it has been in years past. We would not be at all surprised to see their C team outplace their B team.

Team to watch: BU B
BU is a program whose B team can be as dangerous or more dangerous than their A team. It was their B team that earned bids to both ORCS and Nationals last year when their A team failed and traditionally, the B team has done as well or better than the A team at AMTA tournaments for BU. It is unclear how much of a reshuffle there had been in their teams since last year had a few shake ups. Some of those who were on the qualifying B teams last year may have been moved up to A. At Yale’s invitational their B team performed more like a B team than an A team (breaking even in the B division). However that’s only a little worse than they did last year in the same division and last year the B team made nationals. In other words, watch out for this team. They could be a B team that gets swept by the top programs here, or they could be an NCT level team in disguise.



New Rochelle: (24 Teams) ‘Yup, You’re In The Northeast’ (MAIMD Ranking 24/32)
- 2 teams in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 6 in top 200

First in:
BU A
NYU A

Bubble:
NYU B
Wellesley A
Connecticut A
Tufts C
Tufts D
Holy Cross A
Saint Johns A

Initial Thoughts:
This is a pretty classic Northeast regional. We have at the top both NYU and BU’s A teams. NYU is a very traditional power house that seems to have fallen on hard times recently but is still nothing to be trifled with. BU is a program that has been on the cusp of doing very well for a long time but has been held back by the bloodbath that is the Northeastern ORCS circuit, and broke through to NCT for the first time in several years last year. Its anyone’s guess which of these teams would prevail in a head to head match up, but they are pretty clearly the top of the pack.

Below those two teams we have a collection of teams that have made ORCS intermittently over the last few years and had middling to bottom performances when they do. These include Holy Cross, Saint Johns, Connecticut, and Wellesley. We expect these schools to be duking it out for the remaining spots not taken by the top powers. As per usual, a lot of that will be determined by who gets lucky in the draw and avoids the top few schools, a phenomenon exacerbated by the low number of bids per ORCS this year.

Finally, we have the usual collection of B+ teams from power programs. We expect NYU B to be worse than they are most years, as they are likely to be extremely young and inexperienced. Don’t count them out though. NYU has a strong training program that may, yet make them dangerous. Tufts C and D are also traditionally pretty strong at invites, and Tufts strong unstacked performances at invites bodes well for the lower teams in their program.

Good luck to the new teams from this region, the Mules of Muhlenberg College and the Pioneers of William Paterson University.

Team to watch: Wellesley A
Wellesley has been a program sitting in the middle of the ORCS pack for the last couple of years with 4-4 records for both of the last two. Given that we feel pretty good able Wellesley’s ability to break from regionals this year. This year the team has finished with winning records at its fall tournaments with 4-4 at New England Classic, 5.5 at Brandeis, and 6-2 at the Wildcat Invitational in New Hampshire. While none of these tournaments have fields that are comparable to ORCS, they are all good indicators of regionals success and make increased ORCS success plausible. It will be interesting to see how Wellesley stacks up to the top teams in this field but we expect them to have no difficulty against the rest.

Providence: (24 Teams) ‘Chip On Their Shoulder’ (MAIMD Ranking 31/32)
- 1 teams in top 50, 2 teams in top 100, 7 in top 200

First in:
Harvard A
Brown A

Bubble:
UMass A
Vermont A
Harvard B
Colby A
UMass B
Connecticut B
Williams A

Initial Thoughts:
This regional is one of the few that do not have an NCT team from last year in attendance. Instead they have a number of teams that just barely missed. Brown and Harvard both went into Round four of ORCS last year with 3.5 ballots, just enough to scrape through if they took both in the fourth round (both having had tough schedules full of teams that would break or almost break), and they split. UMass came into ORCS ranked in the bottom half of the field and then managed to pull ballots off Wesleyan A and both Yale teams, to barely miss a bid at 5-3. All three of these teams are going to come in with something to prove from last year.

Beyond the top group of teams there is a collection of schools who have recently found success at the top of the regionals level and the lower half of the ORCS fields. Willimas has been on edge between qualifying and not qualifying to ORCS for years.Vermont and Colby have risen significantly in recent years (including Colby’s infamous taking two ballots off of Yale). In an ORCS with a slightly shakier top field, this might be a year where one of the less well known programs breaks out to the top of the pack.

Team to watch: UMass A
Last year, UMass was the kind of team to be terrified of in the new ORCS pairing system. They were not highly ranked, they hadn’t made it through regionals the year before, and they didn’t have any name recognition. And then they took ballots off of both Yale teams and a Wesleyan team that went on to qualify, leading UMass to a 5-3 record. In other words, they exceeded all expectations and nearly became last year’s NCT Cinderella team, a 2019 version of 2018 Lafayette. Of course, that success came with some controversy: UMass’ cases were built around rhetoric, character ideas, and performances ripped right out of past NCT rounds. All teams take content from one another (we expect that every Regional this year will have at least one defense opening begin with “what if I told you”), but some took to MTC to complain that UMass had crossed a line with just how much they took. This year, UMass has had a pretty patchy record, going 2-6 in Yale’s B division, 4-4 at Wildcat, and 6-2 at Brandeis. This may simply be the result of stacking odities but it does not look like UMass is poised to repeat their performance from last year. However, the point of a Cinderella team is that they are surprising and we’ve learned from our mistakes, so this is not a team to count out. This year is their time to prove that they are really rising and not simply a flash in the pan from last year.


Tallahassee: (23 Teams) ‘This Is What A Regionals Should Look Like’ (MAIMD Ranking 13/32)
- 2 teams in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 9 in top 200

First in:
Georgia A
North Carolina A
Florida B

Bubble:
Auburn A
Georgia C
Emory C
Georgia State A
Florida State B
North Carolina B
Spelman A
Furman B

Initial Thoughts:
This is a solidly mid-pack regionals in terms of numerical strength. But it is also one of the less predictable ones based on the numbers. This is because much of its strength is found in a large group of “low” ranked teams. Tallahassee has more ranked teams than any region other than seattle. There are 14 teams in the field with a power ranking meaning that there are fourteen teams from schools that have made ORCS in the last three years and thus are trying to return rather than break into the group (and that’s not counting the C teams). This can be daunting for a program that has never broken before and is looking in from the outside.

At the top of this field we have Georgia A, fresh off a successful season in which they got two teams to nationals and took home an honorable mention. Georgia also just completed an invite season with a run to the elite Great Chicago Fire Tournament where they were the only team  that managed to stop UVA (the eventual winners) from a perfect record in the first four rounds. Joining them we have North Carolina, a team New to NCT who also took an honorable mention. Following that top group we have Auburn and Spelman who have made it to ORCS a few times in the last few years with low placements, and Georgia State who managed to make Nationals in 2018 but didn’t make it out of regionals in 2019. Like at any southern tournament, rounding out the field we have a herd of B and C teams from the local powers including Florida B, Georgia C, Emory C, Florida State B, North Carolina B, and Furman B.

Team to watch: Georgia State A
In 2018, 235th ranked Georgia State managed to make it to nationals in what looked like a Cinderella team move. Concerns that they might just be a flash in the pan team seemed to be supported when the next year they didn’t make it out of regionals with a 2-6 record, until, that is, you notice that they had to play Georgia A, and both teams from Georgia Tech all of which went at least 6-2 at ORCS. So it’s rather difficult to predict where this team will end up this year. Their invite performances have been a bit patchy. They finished with a 2-2 record at the (relatively) weaker OWL Classic in November 2, and then pulled out a 5-3 record at the Peach  Bowl a week later. Similarly at the (relatively) weaker Swamp Invite in January they went 3-5, but then they had the same 3-5 record at the much harder Ramblin Wreck. So it is simply unclear how well this team will do. We look forward to being surprised.


Tempe: (18 Teams) ‘This Will Be Hard, But We Can’t Predict Why’ (MAIMD Ranking 21/32)
- 2 teams in top 50, 2 teams in top 100, 7 in top 200

First in:
UCLA B
San Diego A

Bubble:
Fresno A
UCLA C
USC B
ASU B
Pomona B

Initial Thoughts:
This regional is interesting for a few reasons. First, it’s pretty small. With only 18 teams, only 5 bids will be coming from this region. But more importantly, this regional is filled with powerful B and C teams. UCLA B earned a bid to nationals last year while ASU B went 8-0 at this tournament last year. This regional also includes teams like UCLA C, USC B, and Pomona B who are all forces to be reckoned with. These teams are always competitive, but having this many competitive B+C teams creates a huge unknown since it's rare to keep the exact same B or C team year to year. With 7/19 teams in the top 200, we don’t expect any team to have an easy time.

At the top are our national returners UCLA B and San Diego A. Both teams earned 8-8 records in Philadelphia last year and theoretically should have an easy time, but both teams struggled at this time last year. Both teams barely made it out of their regionals with 5.5 and 5 wins respectively and given only 5 bids, 5.5 wins might not even earn a bid this year.

Team to watch: San Diego A
San Diego has been the surprise team over the past two years on the West Coast. Two years ago, their A team didn’t make it out of regionals but then their combined A and B team earned a bid in Santa Monica surprising some. Last year, they established they’re a program that can’t be underestimated earning 3 bids to ORCS and not only making it back to Nationals, but earning an honorable mention. This would lead us to believe that they’re almost guaranteed a spot in ORCS again, right? Well both of the past two years, their A team earned 5 wins which isn’t signs of a dominating performance. They also lost All-American Justin Koo as well as most of their A team attorney bench. They will be replaced by B team members and some new members, but their B team went 0-8 at ORCS last year. In addition, San Diego A’s invitational season hasn’t been the strongest. Their A team earned 3 wins at Beach Party and 3.5 wins at UCLAssic. On the bright side, they do have some star power that will help them not only advance to ORCS but to Nationals. Noor Takadin is one of their only returning A team attorneys and while she’s a great attorney, she’s a star witness earning 3 witness awards this year. In addition, Chitra Kulkarni and Deena Gharibian are both stand-out members of this team that will help them advance. We expect San Diego A to advance from this regional, but if they get 5 wins for a third year in a row, that might not be enough at a regional that might only have 5 bids.

Washington: (24 Teams) ‘Luck Be A Lady This Weekend’ (MAIMD Ranking 23/32)
- 1 teams in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 7 in top 200

First in:
UMBC A
Rutgers A

Bubble:
SUNY, Binghamton A
Haverford A
Georgetown C
Fordham, Rose Hall A
Fordham, Rose Hall B
Seton Hall A
La Salle A
American B

Initial Thoughts:
This regionals is going to be one where luck plays a large role. At the top, we have the two heavy hitters UMBC A and Rutgers A - in that order. UMBC returns most of the team that placed in the top 10 at Nationals, whereas Rutgers graduates almost their entire A roster from last year including 2 time Trial By Combat competitor Mike Kleynman. Considering the rest of the field, and the consistency that these two programs shown, they should have an easy time advancing. SUNY Binghamton also has a good shot to advance after earning 5.5 bids at ORCS last year. Where this regionals gets tricky is the remainder of the field. 12/24 of the teams are unranked A and B teams. Some of these teams have a larger chance at earning a bid than others, but there’s still a large difference between hitting a team like Franklin & Marshall vs. UMBC A. And that’s where luck comes into play. There are 9 teams in the 130-245 range. This includes some powerful C teams from Georgetown, Rutgers and American. Any of those 9 teams can fight their way out of this regional by getting lucky and only hitting teams in in that field or one of the 12 unranked teams. And similarly, any of those nine teams could end up hitting one or both of UMBC and Rutgers and find themselves just short of a bid.

Team to watch: UMBC A
UMBC is a team on the cusp of greatness. Over the past few years, under the leadership of our favorite podcast host Ben Garmoe, UMBC has had a meteoric rise to power in AMTA. But the question now for this team is if they can be more than the underdog story. Can they maintain the consistent high level of performance of the Miamis and UVAs of the world? They carry a lot of talent with them after only graduating one senior last year. While it was an important one in Nihir Nanavantay, they still have strong players like Natalie Murray, Ethan Hudson, and of course Sydney Gaskins. Gaskins is one of the rare competitors in AMTA who can truly swing a round on her own. This team is primed to make a big run at the NCT in April, and the road starts in Washington.

Williamsburg: (19 Teams) ‘LOL SUX 2 B U’ (MAIMD Ranking 3/32)
- 2 teams in top 50, 5 teams in top 100, 8 in top 200

First in:
Fordham LC A
George Washington A
Georgetown A

Bubble:
William & Mary B
Penn A
Georgetown B
Fordham LC B
Villanova A
Johns Hopkins A

Initial Thoughts:
As regionals go, this one is in the upper echelon of difficulty. So many of the East Coast regionals and ORCS are necessarily harder due to the mere existence of so many high caliber teams in the area. In particular for Williamsburg, it boasts three A teams who all have realistic goals of eventually qualifying to NCT in Chicago (Fordham LC, George Washington, and Georgetown). That alone makes this a difficult regional to break through, but then you add on lower teams of all of the above programs, as well as teams from historically successful programs like William & Mary, Penn, and Johns Hopkins. In the past few years, these teams have fallen off quite the level of success they had experienced previously, in part because of the graduation of key members. For example, Ayesha Durrani was a top competitor for Johns Hopkins and even with strong players like Omar Hafez to fill in, those are big shoes to fill. Qualifying through this regional, especially when it only has 5 bids, will be an accomplishment in and of itself for any team able to pull it off.

Team to watch: Georgetown A
Last year, Georgetown A pulled the first bid to Nationals out of the Richmond ORCS with an impressive 7-1 record, while going a combined 3-1 against both UVA teams. They then went on to win half of their ballots at Nationals and earn two All-American awards (one for witness Brendan Ferguson and the other for attorney Victoria Clark). This year the Hoyas are looking to return to the NCT in Chicago and this time place in the top 10 in their division. But to get there, they first have to fight their way through Williamsburg.

Great analysis, as always. I just want to chime in to say I don't see a world where Fresno A doesn't break from Tempe - they are too experienced to not break, I'd put them in the first in category out there - I wouldn't be surprised if they placed first in the whole regional.

Where is week 4 ):

Why is Dayton such a lock? I believe last year was their only NCT trip and they did not do great. They also seem to have been invited to some good tournies this year but no great finishes. Just curious why MAIMD is so high on them...

Sir Mocksalot wrote:Why is Dayton such a lock?  I believe last year was their only NCT trip and they did not do great.  They also seem to have been invited to some good tournies this year but no great finishes.  Just curious why MAIMD is so high on them...

In addition to Dayton’s entire nationals team graduating, the coach that got them to nationals is no longer with the program. Definitely a bubble year for Dayton

Addition - OSU A v. Penn state A is the best first round stack up of the weekend.