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Week 2 Regional Results

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Week 2 Regional Results Empty Week 2 Regional Results

Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:46 am
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Wanted to start a thread for week 2 regional discussions. What does everyone think about what went down in Wheaton, Evanston, Buffalo, Indianapolis, Houston, State College, Richmond, San Diego, and Seattle?


Last edited by happygolucky on Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:00 am
How does 6-2 not get a direct bid to ORCS? Had that ever happened before?
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Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:13 am
Sir Mocksalot wrote:How does 6-2 not get a direct bid to ORCS? Had that ever happened before?

Ever since they narrowed it to 6 bids per regional instead of 7. And 6 bids is still, at least in my view, likely to get an open bid of the open bid list.
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Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:25 am
My overall conclusion is: a few surprises on the margins, but not many.

Seattle:
1515 Gonzaga University 7.5 Wins (CS: 15, OCS: 79.5, PD: 41)
1490 University of Oregon 6.5 Wins (CS: 14, OCS: 74, PD: 66)
1258 U. of California, Berkeley 6 Wins (CS: 18, OCS: 73, PD: 48)
1493 University of Oregon 6 Wins (CS: 17, OCS: 61.5, PD: 27)
1437 University of Portland 6 Wins (CS: 13, OCS: 70.5, PD: 62)
1516 Gonzaga University 5.5 Wins (CS: 17.5, OCS: 68, PD: 27)

Honorable Mention
1540 University of Washington 5.5 Wins (CS: 16, OCS: 68.5, PD: 54)
1259 U. of California, Berkeley 4.5 Wins (CS: 16, OCS: 64.5, PD: 3)

Some thoughts: Gonzaga and Berkeley are not surprises. Assuming this is UW's A team, the program seems to be on the downswing (TPR: #87). This is a program that was doing well at nationals 5-6 years ago and regularly making ORCs in the last three years, now misses a bid (although, they seem to be in a strong position to get an open one). By contrast, U of O (TPR #: 165)looks ascendant - sending to teams to ORCS when they have not made consistent appearances at ORCs in the last three years.

San Diego
Team School Record
1083 Univ. of California, Irvine 8 Wins (CS: 13.5, OCS: 78.5, PD: 100)
1305 Arizona State University 6 Wins (CS: 25, OCS: 63.5, PD: 26)
1294 Univ. of Southern California 6 Wins (CS: 18, OCS: 68, PD: 74)
1034 Univ. of California, Davis 6 Wins (CS: 16, OCS: 72, PD: 43)
1085 Univ. of California, Irvine 6 Wins (CS: 12.5, OCS: 78.5, PD: 37)

Honorable Mention
1296 Univ. of Southern California 5 Wins (CS: 16, OCS: 80, PD: 10)
1271 U. of California, Los Angeles 5 Wins (CS: 14, OCS: 60.5, PD: -3)

Some thoughts: I don't know a ton about this region, but assuming true stacking.... that's UCLA's E team. Damn. Yeah that's a low CS and only 5 wins, but the depth of some programs this year still amazes me. ASU getting a bid is no shocker... but 6 wins is pretty great when your CS is 25!

State College
1050 University of Virginia 8 Wins (CS: 17, OCS: 63, PD: 102)
1049 University of Virginia 7 Wins (CS: 13, OCS: 79, PD: 124)
1563 Pennsylvania State University 6 Wins (CS: 16.5, OCS: 71.5, PD: 41)
1057 Juniata College 6 Wins (CS: 15, OCS: 71, PD: 31)
1130 Dickinson College 6 Wins (CS: 13.5, OCS: 65.5, PD: 33)
1675 University of Maryland 5 Wins (CS: 19, OCS: 63.5, PD: 49)

Honorable Mention
1674 University of Maryland 5 Wins (CS: 17, OCS: 66, PD: 64)
1058 Juniata College 5 Wins (CS: 11.5, OCS: 76, PD: 39)

Some thoughts: It's never surprising when UVA does well.... but these results are absolute beat downs. 7-1 and 8-0 records with PD's above +100 for both the A and B teams? God damn. The CS's aren't especially high, but the point differential is still impressive.

Wheaton
1276 University of Chicago 8 Wins (CS: 15.5, OCS: 75, PD: 131)
1277 University of Chicago 7 Wins (CS: 14, OCS: 63.5, PD: 91)
1011 Macalester College 6.5 Wins (CS: 16, OCS: 76, PD: 78)
1040 Loyola University Chicago 6 Wins (CS: 18.5, OCS: 66.5, PD: 43)
1374 University of Iowa 6 Wins (CS: 18, OCS: 65.5, PD: 29)
1010 Macalester College 5 Wins (CS: 19, OCS: 66, PD: 20)

Honorable Mention
1032 Wheaton College 5 Wins (CS: 18.5, OCS: 69, PD: 55)
1389 Indiana University 5 Wins (CS: 16.5, OCS: 63.5, PD: 14)

Some thoughts: Wheaton misses a bid (although they seem to be in a position to get an open bid) which this is a surprise from a program that has consistently done well and gotten better. Macalester A and B both qualified, which has been a rarity in recent years, so perhaps Macalester's decline of the last ~5 years is reversing. Seeing Chicago's A team hand out a +100 PD beating is not surprising.

I don't know much about the other regionals, although I did notice Miami A also handed out a massive-but-unsurprising 100+ PD beating. I don't know enough about the other regionals to say much, so I'll wait for someone else to weigh in on them.
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Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:40 am
Right now there are four teams with six wins, and 8 open bids.
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Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:16 am
Biggest takeaways from this week:

1. Northwood A didn't directly advance. They'll definitely earn an open bid, but who knows where they'll go for that open bid. My guess is they'll go to Memphis and add some power there
2. ASU A earning 6 wins with a CS of 25!! If you earn 6 wins, then the max CS you can get is 26. That also means the teams competing against them went 23-1 in non-ASU rounds. That's just so impressive on every level.
3. Rochester is out. They sent four teams this weekend and none even earned honorable mentions. They were at nats the past two years I believe and now they're not even breaking from regionals
4. Consistent ORCS attendees not making it. Sort of touched on above, but in addition to Rochester and Northwood, Wheaton A, Indiana A, Washington A, Berkeley B, and Texas A&M A all didn't earn direct bids. Most are on the open bid list, but there's no guarantees they'll earn a bid since there's not that many open bids.
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Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:59 am
Due to the depth of the state school west coast teams there’s a chance that Santa Monica could have more open bids than qualified teams. The remaining two regionals that feed to Santa Monica could in theory all become open bids. I suspect that AMTA will move Berkeley out of Geneva to Santa Monica where there will be space to free up an open bid for Northwood. They could also move Missouri to Cedar Rapids or consolidate both bids if Missouri A makes it out to create an open bid for Northwood. There will be less open bids than previous years but still somewhere between 25-35.
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Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:31 pm
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I'm sorry, but there is a almost a 0% chance Berkeley A is moved to Santa Monica. They should be in Santa Monica but were specifically moved out to move power to Geneva and make Santa Monica less of a train wreck than it already will be. There's no reason they would actively move Berkeley A out of the region, just to move them back in. Also, 0% chance that "Santa Monica could have more open bids than qualified teams". They already have 9 bids locked in right now and you still have Fresno, San Diego, Davis, Berkeley and Stanford who will each get at least one more bid. UCLA B+C, ASU B and Irvine B or D might create open bids, but definitely not half the ORCS
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Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:46 pm
in theory and in actuality are two very different things. I never said the likelihood of all of those bids becoming open bids was high, merely that it was possible which it is. If Berkeley C and D qualify out of Fresno than it would be possible they consolidate both bids. Either in Santa Monica or in Geneva. When I spoke with UC Berkeley at Great Chicago fire they were going to actively try to move their projected Geneva bid to Santa Monica. Replacing Berkeley for Northwood isn’t that big of a power differences They can also add more power by moving Missouri B to Cedar Rapids where there A team is projected to be and filling the open bid with higher power. They can also use the one St. Paul bid for higher power. Making Berkeley split their teams doesn’t make any sense. Making them travel to the suburbs of Chicago doesn’t make sense nor does making Northwood travel to Memphis. Logistically makes far more sense to send both schools to their respective regions and makes Santa Monica more balanced.
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Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:09 pm
Really interesting looking at the open bid list and comparing, in years past it tended to cap out at 5.5 record, already a ton of 6 win teams and several 5 win teams whose records are better than some of the direct bids (which is normal, but still worth noting). Already 19 teams with 5 or more sitting there. There were 37 OBids last year, 22 OBids in 2018, 27 bids in 2017, 32 in 2016, and 22 in 2015. That averages to 28 OBids/year over a span of five years. Even in a down year we saw 22, so taking that number in mind we already have 19 teams with 5+ wins on the list, that figure should grow naturally, but still the 6 win teams look plenty safe. But, there are a lot of competitions left to play out. Chicago already has two bids and has two teams (notably their A team) going this weekend, Georgia Tech A & B are going this weekend and they already have two spots, Miami C, Rhodes A & C have yet to go with their B already in, that's just a sampling of what's left. Assuming all those teams are going to bring the heat (I would think they will) that alone creates 4-6 more open bids from the current 8. Maybe a good Over/Under for 2020's list is 24.5 bids?

I think I'd take the over.
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Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:51 pm
Posting Evanston results for convenience:

1734 University of Michigan 8 Wins (CS: 15, OCS: 72, PD: 137)
1735 University of Michigan 7 Wins (CS: 16, OCS: 66.5, PD: 77)
1383 University of Illinois, Chicago 6.5 Wins (CS: 14, OCS: 71, PD: 30)
1114 University of Notre Dame 6 Wins (CS: 17, OCS: 74.5, PD: 49)
1152 Northern Illinois University 6 Wins (CS: 16, OCS: 68, PD: 40)
1214 North Central College 6 Wins (CS: 15.5, OCS: 71.5, PD: 67)

Honorable Mention
1228 Northwood University 6 Wins (CS: 15, OCS: 67, PD: 124)
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Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:06 pm
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I'm not sure I would agree that Wheaton is in that great a spot to get an open bid, if I were them I would certainly be sweating. As to the Seattle comments 1) I do believe that was UW A, I can't imagine why it wouldn't be and 2) Oregon's depth was fully on display, impressive results from them A-D, coming of a year where they placed 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. I'm fairly surprised Berkeley B only went 4.5, I would have considered them a favorite to finish at the top of the rankings.
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Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:48 pm
It seems like Berkeley is having an off year by their high standards. I don't believe they did particularly well at any of the more competitive invitationals they went to this season and their regionals results were obviously a little disappointing. I believe in previous years when their top two teams were assigned to the Seattle region, they cleaned up. But this year, Berkeley A dropped ballots to Oregon A and C. Meanwhile, Berkeley B didn't even get a bid. Maybe they'll prove me wrong and have a strong showing at ORCS, but I wouldn't be shocked if this is the first season in years that they don't get a NCT bid.
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Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:28 pm
Macalester A and B both qualified, which has been a rarity in recent years, so perhaps Macalester's decline of the last ~5 years is reversing.

Worth noting that Mac B (1011) took two ballots off Indiana A, which has been a very strong team in the last few years.
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Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:37 am
NYbadboy wrote:
Macalester A and B both qualified, which has been a rarity in recent years, so perhaps Macalester's decline of the last ~5 years is reversing.

Worth noting that Mac B (1011) took two ballots off Indiana A, which has been a very strong team in the last few years.

This was the biggest shock of the weekend to me. Indiana's program is very talented, and I hope they get an open bid.
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Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:09 am
DoYouRemember wrote:
NYbadboy wrote:
Macalester A and B both qualified, which has been a rarity in recent years, so perhaps Macalester's decline of the last ~5 years is reversing.

Worth noting that Mac B (1011) took two ballots off Indiana A, which has been a very strong team in the last few years.

This was the biggest shock of the weekend to me. Indiana's program is very talented, and I hope they get an open bid.

Indiana hasn't put together that many impressive results this year. I think they've graduated a lot of people. Unfortunately, with fewer open bids this year, I'm not sure a cs of 16.5 will be enough for an open bid.
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Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:47 pm
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Really shocked to see Northern Illinois University make it out of regionals. They've had a huge nosedive over the past few years, so earning that bid is certainly concerning for those going to Geneva.

Notre Dame is also killing it right now. A lot of the community's focus have been on the big teams that washed out, but Notre Dame's A, B, and C teams all had amazing results. Surprised there isn't as much talk about them.
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Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:52 pm
After seeing NIU cry their eyes out at last year's regional, I was really happy to see them get a bid. I'm sure they put a lot of hard work in leading up to regionals.
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Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:31 pm
Chicago already has two bids and has two teams (notably their A team) going this weekend

Wow. I'd assumed that the two teams running triple digit PD differentials were the A and B teams at Chicago, but I was wrong. I'm not surprised by the outcome, but again, the depth of talent is something to behold.
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Mon Feb 17, 2020 4:58 pm
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Anyone have the tab summary from the Houston regional. It isn't on AMTA's site.
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