2020 Regionals Analysis Week 4

Please share your own thoughts below. This is intended to start a discussion, if you have seen a team and you think we are over or under valuing them let us know! Good luck with regionals! If you aren't on here, then prove us wrong! If you made our list, then prove us right! - MockAnalysisIsMyDrug


Arlington: (19 Teams) “3x2-1” (MAIMD Ranking 16/32)
- 1 teams in top 50, 4 teams in top 100, 6 in top 200

First in:
Rhodes A
Alabama A

Bubble:
Rhodes C
Texas B
Texas C
Alabama B

Initial Thoughts:
The University of Texas at Arlington has assumed the mantle long held by UT Dallas: Host of The Annual Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex Rhodes Conquest. This year as last year Rhodes is sending their A and C teams, and while the roster turnover in the program gives us enough pause to move their C team from the bottom of the First-In list to the top of the Bubble, we expect more of the same domination this year.

The Southern circuit continues to grow in strength however, and we expect there to be serious competition. While Texas hasn’t sent two teams to Regionals since 2017, we expect both their B and C teams to put on strong performances – B is coming off a strong 5-3 showing at Ramblin’ Wreck in which they split with South Carolina A, and Texas C is coming off a clean victory at the UCLASSIC, finishing a full ballot above the rest of the competition.

Both Alabama A and B on the other hand are returning most of their core members from last year, though Alabama A is losing Outstanding Regionals Witness Ashlyn Cooper. Considering their A team finished 8-0 at last year’s Regionals and their B team went 5-3 at the 2019 Memphis ORCS (knocking out a 5-0-1 Georgia A in the final power-protected round in the process), you might expect that we’d have exceedingly high expectations for both squads. Unfortunately, their invitational season has been lukewarm and has given us reason for pause. In their last three invitationals their A team has taken an average of 5⅓ ballots, though the best team they fully swept in that span was Northern Illinois (TPR 106). Alabama B meanwhile has managed an over-.500 record in only one of those tournaments (a 4-3-1 showing at the Crimson Classic). These invitationals are of course more competitive than we expect Arlington to be, but for a program that is coming off such a strong performance at last year’s ORCS, their performance at Regionals will likely indicate whether these are the Alabama teams we saw last year or if there has been a slight decline in strength.

One final thing to look out for with this Regional is the inexperience of the host. As mentioned above, this is Arlington’s first year hosting and they haven’t hosted an invitational in recent memory. While we don’t expect it to be the case, there is the possibility that fluky judging could come into play.

Good luck to the Bulldogs of Jarvis Christian College, the new school in this regional.

Team to watch: Dillard A
Dillard has staked out a position in the South as the non-powerhouse team that no-one wants to hit. This is not because they have a particularly unconventional style however: Dillard hangs its hat on polished and straightforward witnesses, poised attorneys, and boilerplate case theories. What sets Dillard apart is their consistent composure and polish which has a proven appeal to Southern judges. Even against stronger teams, Dillard has a way of winning a judge’s ballot before the round has even started. This style of course has its drawbacks, particularly against more dynamic teams, and last year they weren’t able to make it through to ORCS, finishing 3-4-1 at Houston. While their style has its limitations, there is reason to fear Dillard at Arlington. Their program is growing, having held the Inaugural Big Easy Invitational last November, and they are returning a pair of extremely strong attorneys, Amaya Ronczyk and Lydia Paige-Moffett, the latter of the two awarding at nearly every tournament she attends, including this year’s Big Easy and Crimson Classic. Further, Dillard’s invitational season has given reason for optimism, particularly their performance at Tuscaloosa in which they went 5-3 and saw a favorable +14 -4 split against the Alabama B team that we have rounding out the Bubble. With all that said, Dillard has consistently failed to turn their formidable mix of presence and preparation into success in official AMTA competition, and we do not see a compelling reason why that is going to change. If, however, a team outside of the three programs which constitute the whole of our First-In and Bubble is to make it out, Dillard is our best bet.

Chapel Hill: (20 Teams) “Southern Showdown” (MAIMD Ranking 6/32)
- 1 teams in top 50, 4 teams in top 100, 6 in top 200

First in:
Emory A
Emory B

Bubble:
Furman A
Duke B
Richmond B
GW B
Florida D

Initial Thoughts:
This region features a clear and dominant program in Emory, with a cluster of somewhat strong teams below. Emory has come onto the scene strong in the past five years, first breaking through to Nationals in 2015, missing 2016, and then making the NCT in three straight years, including the first NCT appearance by an Emory B squad last year. Emory A retains their two strongest competitors, attorneys Elias Neibart and All-American John Merle. Their invitational season, which featured a 7-1 finish and a GAMTI appearance in which they won rounds against Columbia and UMBC, has been strong, and we expect an exceedingly strong Emory A performance. Emory B is admittedly more of an unknown, having finished in last place in its division at NCT last year and with the only true Emory B result being a 5-2-1 performance at the Crimson Classic this spring. Still, they field a strong team and we expect them to rack up the ballots necessary to earn an ORCS bid.

Past Emory, we have Furman A, our team to watch, and a cluster of 3 potent B teams: Duke, Richmond, and George Washington. Duke B has put together a strong season, including a 5-2-1 showing at GOT, though posting a slightly underwhelming 3-5 record at Ramblin’ Wreck. Richmond and George Washington are less visible during invitational season, though (assuming A went to Charm City) Richmond B posted a solid 6-2 result at the Colonial Classic, with George Washington posting a 5-3 record. Rounding out the bubble we have Florida D. Last year, Florida D posted a 4-3-1 record at Columbia, and given Florida’s consistent programmatic strength, they cannot be counted out.

Good luck to the new schools in this region: the Pacers of the University of South Carolina, Aiken, the Scotties of Agnes Scott College, and the Nighthawks of the University of North Georgia.

Team to watch: Furman A
Furman is a bit of an interesting case – they are a historically strong team, ranked 52 in in the nation by TPR and having finished with an even 6-6 record in the NCT as recently as 2018 (featuring a 2-1 win over Georgia Tech A). Last year though, they suffered a bit of a dropoff, finishing 4-4 in ORCS, though that should be qualified with the fact that they finished with a 19.5 CS and faced two NCT qualifiers in Emory B and the ascendant South Carolina A. While that performance alone can be explained away by strength of competition, this year has not given much reason for optimism. After an impressive 8-0 finish at the Colonial Classic which featured a sweep of UVA B, a Furman team has had a positive record in just one invitational, the Cactus Classic, and that was back in mid-November. Even at lower-tier invitationals like the Colonel Classic and Crimson Classic, Furman has struggled, posting mostly 3 to 4 ballot performances, along with an ugly 1-7 at the stronger Tobacco Road Invitational. Furman is retaining outstanding ORCS attorneys Spencer Richardson and Kacey Markanian, along with outstanding ORCS witness Caroline Schrum, though it’s losing 2018-19 President and outstanding Regionals attorney Katherine West and witness Claudia Leslie. Regardless, Furman’s invitational slate has been far more difficult than nearly all the teams they will see at Chapel Hill, and we expect Chapel Hill to provide insight into whether their recent performance is simply a result of invitational strength or a more concerning indicator of programmatic decline.

Chestnut Hill: (23 Teams) “Who even knows what will happen with Yale” (MAIMD Ranking 5/32)
- 2 teams in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 7 in top 200

First in:
Yale A
Boston College A
Princeton A

Bubble:
Brown B
UMass Lowell A
Princeton B
Bowdoin A
Amherst A

Initial Thoughts:
This is one of the harder regions out there. At the top, it may not look too bad. There are only two teams at this region who made nationals last year, and one didn’t even break from regionals because it’s the ever volatile, Yale A. However, the field doesn’t get easier when you drop below those teams. Princeton A took 5.5 wins at the competitive Chestnut Hill ORCS last year, which puts them at the same number of wins as many teams that did make nationals.

This top group is followed by a strong mid-pack contingent. Brown and Princeton B have both had strong showings at regionals in recent years and both are B teams from strong programs (which tends to be a good sign for their success). UMass Lowell and Bowdoin are both programs that have struggled at ORCS in recent years but have done well in the project of getting there and so seem to have a pretty good shot this year too. Amherst didn’t make ORCS last year but have done well in recent years at ORCS when they do make it so we are sure they will be looking for a way back.

Good luck to the new schools in this region, the Eagles of Husson University, and the Martlets of McGill.

Team to watch: Princeton A
Princeton A is a team that has long been defined by an abundance of potential but a lack of consistency. The 2014 runner-ups have only made it through to Nationals in 1 of the past 4 years, but they remain dangerous. This year they have a few serious obstacles to overcome – they are losing All-American Maya Aronoff, who awarded as a double-threat at last year’s Princeton Regionals, and Outstanding ORCS witness Elkhyn Rivas Rodriguez. There is no clear replacement to Aronoff, though junior Brooks Eikner has stepped into the witness spot left by Rodriguez, earning witness awards at both Habeas Hippopotamus and CUBAIT. Princeton’s 5-3 performance at CUBAIT wasn’t bad, but it was far from dominant, sweeping only Iona and a weakened Brown. However, depending on how strong a performance they put together, they may be in a good position to play spoiler for one of the powerhouses they’ll see back on their home turf at ORCS.


Colorado Springs: (19 Teams) “Not Mini Anymore” (MAIMD Ranking 32/32)
- 1 teams in top 50, 1 teams in top 100, 5 in top 200

First in:
Arizona A

Bubble:
Denver A
Southern Methodist A
Arizona B
Air Force A
Colorado A
Colorado College A
Santa Clara A
Grand Canyon A

Initial Thoughts:
Welcome to the easiest regional! The Colorado Springs regional has historically been one of the least competitive ones, and this year is no exception. At the top of the pack is Arizona A who narrowly missed out on a bid to nationals last year. They are the sole team in the top 100 and should have an easy time earning a bid to Geneva. Who will take the other four bids? Well that’s more of a debate. Denver A, Southern Methodist A, Arizona B, and Air Force A all consistently make ORCS, but have hit or miss performances there. If we had to guess, those are clearly the top 5 at this regional. But a few unlucky pairings and one of them might lose a bid. Look for teams like Colorado A, Colorado College A and Santa Clara A to take bids off any of those teams and sneak their way in there. In addition, look out for Grand Canyon A. After a 6-2 performance at this regional last year, they withdrew from ORCS. While the official reason is unconfirmed, internal difficulties might have been at play. If that’s the case, then who knows what this Grand Canyon team will be like. This has the capabilities to be an extremely predictable regional, but with some funky pairings, we could see some surprises.

Team to watch: Santa Clara A
With only one team in the top 100, and five in the top 200, it’s possible if not likely that an unranked team breaks through at this regional. We predict that Santa Clara A could be that team. Led by President and All-Regional attorney Maria Parker, Santa Clara formed it’s team two years ago and it consisted of mostly first and second years. Now two years later, those first and second years have three seasons of competing under their belt and they’re taking ballots off of well-established teams. In the fall, they took ballots off of UC Davis and Cal Poly SLO and most recently at Cal’s Elias Memorial tournament, they split all four rounds vs. two Fresno teams, SLO and Pomona. While none prove that they can beat teams like Arizona A or B, it shows that if they get lucky by facing any of the 9 other unranked teams (or even some of the lower ranked ones), they can put up a fight and maybe even fight their way out. Are we expecting them to break through? It’s an outside shot. But if there was a regional that gave them the best chance in doing so, this is the one.

Columbus: (24 Teams) “The Buckeye Beatdown” (MAIMD Ranking 18/32)
- 2 teams in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 8 in top 200

First in:
Ohio State B
Cincinnati A

Bubble:
Michigan State A
Michigan State B
Ohio State C
Cincinnati B
Syracuse A
Michigan C
Pittsburgh A


Initial Thoughts:
The Columbus regional is one sure to leave teams disappointed. With seven consistent ORCS attendees, three powerful C teams and only six bids, this regional will not be fun. At the top are nationals returners Ohio State B and Cincinnati A. Ohio State B shocked everyone last year, not only by placing first at the Geneva OCS, but also coming in 5th in their division in Philadelphia. Also at the top is Cincinnati A. While they lost Trial By Combat winner Stephen Johnson, they seem to be as strong as ever, placing 2nd at Scarlet and Grey and 3rd at Eastern Kentucky Colonial Classic with Julia Greve taking home 6 attorney awards (awarded on both the Prosecution and Defense at three different tournaments). We’re not worried about either of these teams’ chances of advancing.

Then we have the C teams. Ohio State and Michigan’s C teams both earned bids last year with 6 and 7 wins respectively. Meanwhile Indiana’s C team earned a respectable 4 wins last year. These C teams from well established programs look to create some open bids and it is not only possible, but likely that at least one of them takes one of the six bids from Columbus.

Lastly, there are teams like Michigan State, Pittsburgh and Syracuse. All three are interesting for different reasons. Michigan State usually earns at least one bid to ORCS, but struggles while there. Last year, they broke that trend earning 5 ballots at ORCS showing they can compete with the best. On the flip side, Pittsburgh consistently earned 4 ballots at ORCS until last year, where they had a rough draw at regionals and didn’t advance only earning 4 wins with a CS of 22.5. Lastly, there’s Syracuse. Syracuse was supposed to be in Buffalo where they most likely would have earned a bid. But due to a last minute switch (we expect because of weather), they are now here and they’ll need to fight for their spot. They’ve earned bids two out of the last three years and performed decent there, but with only six bids and a plethora of teams in the same category, they might have had better luck staying in Buffalo.

Overall, there’s a clear top seed of teams who have consistently earned bids and advanced. However the number of teams there outnumber the amount of bids this regional will give out, so expect some upsets.

Team to watch: Cincinnati A
Cincinnati was one of the bigger shocks of last year, qualifying for the NCT after having fallen short the year before, and earning an Honorable Mention in Philadelphia. As mentioned above, they boasted one of the best competitors in the country in eventual TBC champion Stephen Johnson. And they’ve had some individual success this year, most notably in Julia Greve. But there is still an open question about whether CIncinnati will be able to recreate the team success that they had last year. They’ll be looking for the second person to fill in the Batman and Robin duo that Johnson and Greve were able to form last year. There is some talent around the program in competitors like Nick Plymale, but we are interested to see whether that talent can turn into ballots here.


Fresno: (20 Teams) “Fresyes” (MAIMD Ranking 28/32)
- 1 teams in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 6 in top 200

First in:
Stanford A
Stanford B
Irvine B

Bubble:
Berkeley C
Berkeley D
Davis B
Fresno B
Irvine D
Santa Cruz A

Initial Thoughts:
This has the makings to be one of the most unpredictable regionals. Last year, Fresno produced some of the top West Coast teams. With 4 teams from Fresno earning bids to Nationals (Berkeley A, Stanford B, San Diego A and Davis A) in addition to Santa Barbara A, who would have in any other year, the power in this region has severely shifted for this year’s regionals. Berkeley A was replaced by Berkeley D. Davis A was replaced by Davis C. San Diego and Santa Barbara moved to regionals closer to them. On paper, this regional seems much easier than last year and those who believe that aren’t wrong. But this won't be easy for any team. Stanford A joined the mix as well as a plethora of B-D teams from great programs who have won bids in the past and will continue to fight for bids.

At the top of this regional is Stanford A, Stanford B and Irvine B. All three teams have earned bids to nationals in the past two years and they’ve only improved from there. Irvine B took 6th place at UCLAssic going 6-2 and both Stanford teams placed 1st and 2nd at Mocktopia in the fall, both going 7-1. All three teams are likely to move on, but who comes next is anyone’s guess. One of the more likely teams includes Davis B. Davis B has consistently advanced over the past few years, but then struggles at ORCS while there. Fresno B is the opposite. They struggled at regionals last year, barely making the open bid list with 4.5 wins, but at ORCS, matched that with 4.5 wins. Also expect Berkeley C, Berkeley D and Irvine D to be competitive as all three earned bids last year. Lastly, there’s the underdog teams. UC Santa Cruz A and SLO B are both teams that have fielded talented teams with young members and we believe both have fighting chances to break.

The biggest variable in this regional is the amount of new teams. SJSU and Merced are both bringing a team for the first time and SF A and Sonoma all have never earned more than 2 wins at a competition. In addition, Santa Cruz is adding a B team for the first time in years so the difference between playing a team on the bubble and one of the five teams just mentioned is astronomical. This could give teams an easy win, but also drop their CS, making this regional one to keep a close eye on.

Good luck to the Spartans of San Jose State University and the Golden Bobcats of UC Merced, who will be feilding teams for the first time this year.

Team to watch: Santa Cruz A
The Banana Slugs of Sant Cruz are reputably the nicest teams on this coast. But don't let their niceness fool you, their invite showings show they can steal a ballot off you no matter who you are. At Mocktopia, they ended the tournament with a strong 6-2 finish and were the only team to take a ballot off the Stanford team that won the tournament. Meanwhile, at UCLASSIC, they split with teams like UCLA C and Washington A. It seems that there’s something about Santa Cruz’ style that judges are liking even when they face greater odds. Because of this we chose Santa Cruz because we have a strong feeling that this team has the ability to cause major upsets at this regional. Individuals to look for include Aspen Adams, with 20/20 ranks at AAMTI and Mocktopia, she’s become one of the coldest closers on the coast, Adam Selcov and Dane Cross who have both earned their own attorney awards this season, and Declan Dempsey and Marian Avila-Breach who’ve both won witness awards. In addition, look out for some talented freshman such as gladiator, Trent Larson. We can expect this regional to be a time when facing a banana slug can turn out to be a rather unfortunate event.


Louisville: (20 Teams) “Power Across the Board” (MAIMD Ranking 7/32)
- 1 teams in top 50, 4 teams in top 100, 7 in top 200

First in:
Patrick Henry A
Tennessee Chattanooga A
Xavier A

Bubble:
Washington & Lee A
Patrick Henry B
Pennsylvania A
Bellarmine A
Western Kentucky A
Tennessee Chattanooga B


Initial Thoughts:
While Louisville has a few great teams, the reason this regional is ranked as one of the hardest ones is because of the abundance of good teams that are to follow. At the top is our sole national ranking team, Patrick Henry. While they barely escaped ORCS, taking the final open bid, they proved that they deserved their spot by placing 4th in their division. Not only does Patrick Henry consistently earn bids to ORCS, but they shine while there. We believe they’ll be locks to advance. Tennessee, Chattanooga A and Xavier A should also have an easy time advancing. After that, there are a lot of quality teams that will be fighting it out. Some of these teams consistently make it to ORCS but don’t perform amazing there such as Tennessee, Chattanooga B and Patrick Henry B. Some have been performing worse and worse over the past few years like Washington & Lee A, who made it to nationals three years ago but last year only earned 3 wins at ORCS, and Kentucky A, who made it to nationals three years ago as well, but haven’t even been to ORCS since. And some teams are coming off their best season in a while such as Bellarmine A and Western Kentucky A who made it to ORCS for the first time in a few years last year. Pennsylvania A is also a team to look out for. They’re inconsistent in getting to ORCS, but when they’re there, they do pretty decent. And it seems like this year they’re getting even better! With half of the teams at this tournament ranked, this will be one tough regionals.

Good luck to the new school in this region: the Vikings of Berry College.

Team to watch: Pennsylvania A
UPenn has been a very inconsistent program for the past few years. You never know quite what you will get from them. Penn frequently produces very strong speakers, and often runs very interesting theories, but their program has historically not done very well mostly due to a general ambivalence towards success. Legendarily, Penn is one of the only teams to ever turn down a bid to Nationals, and the reason for it was that there was a big party that weekend on campus. The very idea of that is anathema to all of us mock nerds. However, all that being said, Penn is really looking to turn that around this year. They have doubled down and really pushed to become a relevant team at this regional. Penn is led by their President DJ Dorch, along with a very strong set of attorneys, namely senior Kate Lindbergh and a familiar name in Alec Evans (where’s our (second) favorite podcast host?), who has found success this year as a witness. Penn is certainly a far cry from a lock, but they are hoping to prove that they are changing for the better and will be looking to shake things up after being a late addition to this region. Unfortunately for them, they may have their work cut out for them as this looks to be a very competitive field.


Owings Mills: (24 Teams) “Owww-ings Mills” (MAIMD Ranking 8/32)
- 1 teams in top 50, 5 teams in top 100, 9 in top 200

First in:
Tufts A
William & Mary A
Tufts B

Bubble:
American A
Wesleyan B
Rutgers B
Stevenson A
UMBC B
Wesleyan C

Initial Thoughts:
While the Owings Mills Regionals has a challenging field, Tufts A certainly is the team to beat here. The Tufts team has had some remarkable showings this year, including their place in the final round of the GCF invite where they lost a good round to UVA A. The team as a whole is an incredibly strong one, but they also have some superstars. Steven Becker is probably one of the strongest attorneys on objections in AMTA right now. He’s been racking up awards all year, even awarding as a middle at this year’s Yale Invite. Will Wilson, Will Porter, Arvind Goday and Maya Schoucair fill in a powerful and deep team. This Tufts team only seems to be able to be slowed by the highest end of teams in AMTA - of which there are none at this Regional. Tufts B has also had tremendous success this year, showing off their programs depth, and seeing as Tufts B won’t have to face their A, we are quite confident that Tufts B will also make it through.

While the Tufts program is certainly a force to be reckoned with, the rest of the Owings Mill regionals field is also quite formidable. William and Mary has recently turned into a very reliable team that has had some consistent top showings. American isn’t quite the program they were when they won GAMTI just three years ago, but we can still expect American A to put together a strong team. On the other hand, Stevenson is an exciting up and comer that had a lot of success last year at this same regional. After many strong invitational performances, Stevenson is poised to return to ORCS for the second year in a row.

The other aspect of this regionals to consider is that there are a lot of strong B teams. Beyond Tufts, UMBC B, and Wesleyan B both come from programs with a lot of talent, a lot of depth, and are strong contenders to make it out of this Regionals. Wesleyan B in particular went all the way to Nationals with a team of only freshman and sophomores. So we expect that Wesleyan B will be competing with largely the same group of Nationals veterans who are hungry to make it back.

Team to watch: Stevenson A
Stevenson never managed to crack the code on their own regionals until last year when they surged and put together an impressive 6-2 showing, followed by a decent 3-4-1 showing at Central Islip ORCS. Stevenson is certainly hoping to break into the constant ORCS category of teams, and after a strong invitational season they are on the right track to do just that. Stevenson’s notable performances this year have been receiving first place at Quaker Classic and John Hopkins Blue Jay Invitational, 2nd place at Rutgers Scarlet Knight, as well as receiving 5th place at Yale’s B Division. That being said, Stevenson has struggled when facing some higher tier talent at other tournaments this year. Stevenson is yet to prove themself as being able to beat a top team, but they certainly have no problem knocking off everyone else in their way. Expect Stevenson to be hungry to face Tufts, American, or William and Mary and look to finally knock off a strong team. Whether they will be able to do it, only time will tell. Lead by their coach Melanie Snyder, alongside their most prominent award winners: senior Norman Greenwell and junior Apreah Smith, Stevenson is certainly a team to keep your eye on.


St. Paul: (26 Teams) “Blood, Sweat, and Snow” (MAIMD Ranking 20/32)
- 2 teams in top 50, 3 teams in top 100, 7 in top 200

First in:
Northwestern A
Northwestern B
Illinois A

Bubble:
St. Thomas A
Carleton A
Minnesota B
St. Olaf A
Carthage A
Illinois D

Initial Thoughts:
At first glance, this region seems to be dominated by the two Northwestern teams. Last year, their A and B teams bid out of regionals at 8-0 and 7-1 respectively before going on to earn two bids to Nationals (one of 3 programs to qualify two teams to NCT the past two years). And this year they’re on track to make two strong showings again. Northwestern A has two All-Americans and has been posting respectable records at tough tournaments, placing 4th in Yale’s A division and going 4-4 at GCF, and Northwestern B went 7-1 to place 3rd at Georgia Tech’s invite.

But there are a few teams who could shake things up in St. Paul while fighting for their own bids. Illinois A has posted an even record or better at ORCS for the past 3 years, including splitting with Northwestern in R4 of Cedar Rapids last year, nearly knocking them out of Nationals. After some promising invitational results this fall, this team may be poised to make another push to get back to NCT. Another lesser known team to be on the look out for is Carleton A. Carleton had an impressive showing last year at their 2019 regionals, even stealing a ballot off of Chicago A in one round. Throw in a few unpredictable C and D teams, as well as a relatively high number of unranked teams (twelve), and we may see some unexpected twists in results. The overarching theme of this St. Paul regionals is that there are powerful teams here beyond the Northwestern duo that teams should definitely not underestimate.

Team to watch: Illinois A
For years, Illinois A has been a consistently very strong and presentationally clean team. Illinois A also has a strength of playing well against difficult opponents. While not quite in the tier of some top 25 or 30 teams that consistently make it to Nationals, Illinois A has the ability to play up to those teams, taking competitors by surprise and picking up unexpected ballots. We saw that when Illinois split with Northwestern A in the last round of 2019 ORCS, and we saw that with many teams at the 2019 GCF tournament. This fall, Illinois A has posted winning records at what seems to be every invitational they’ve attended, including one 8-0 result. While they graduated one of their lead attorneys last year, a few competitors have been taking home multiple awards this season, including Genevieve Severini (who’s awarded as both an attorney and witness) and Kyra Sadovi. We trust that Illinois A will, for another year, make a strong showing at the St. Paul regionals, and hopefully at the Cedar Rapids ORCS.

One question, on the original regional difficulty analysis post, St. Paul was ranked 8/32 and here it was ranked 20/32? Wondering if something changed or if one of them was just a typo? Anyways, great analysis as always!

St. Paul looks to be a mess in the middle as always. Northwestern and Illinois are obviously the clear favorites, but in addition to the teams you've mentioned, many of the B and C teams from this region have also been quite impressive. Minnesota C jumps to the top of that list - undefeated at St. Thomas and 5-3 after going -1 -1 to Michigan State in round 4 at Central. Macalester C placed in the top 5 with 6-2 records at both of those tournaments, so I'd watch out for them as well. Carleton B has also been a sleeper team in years past - I'm not super sure about where they are this year but I know their roster across both teams is very experienced and they are always a threat.

Bottom line is, beyond the clear favorites, this region is going to be a mess. It's very likely going to come down to a lot of close rounds between teams that managed to avoid hitting Northwestern and/or Illinois, which is kind of unfortunate in a region loaded with upper-mid-level programs, a lot of which have been fielding extremely deep and talented rosters this year.