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2020-2021 TPR Empty 2020-2021 TPR

Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:13 pm
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At this point, it seems unlikely that the remaining three ORCS and the National Championship will be held. Something I haven't seen a lot of discussion of is how this will affect TPR fir next year. TPR is important for AMTA, as it is used to balance Regionals, ORCS, and Nationals divisions. But only performance at ORCS and Nationals affects TPR. As a result, the teams at the the last three ORCS will have no chance to improve their TPR, and the schools that qualified to the National Championship will also miss out. does anyone have any ideas for how AMTA can account for this? Alternatively, does anyone know if AMTA does have a plan for this?
MocktotheTop
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2020-2021 TPR Empty Re: 2020-2021 TPR

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:55 pm
I have no idea what AMTA's plan for this is, but I've definitely thought about it. One thing that could happen is that TPR just doesn't change for next year. A lot of good teams didn't get a chance to compete at their ORCS, and trying to predict how they would've done seems unfair. I know the teams that did compete want credit for their ballots and they deserve it, but there's just no way to fairly measure how those teams stack up against the national field at this point. Giving hypothetical scores out won't make anyone happy since there's plenty of teams on the rise that likely would've shaken things up at ORCS this year.
Another scenario is that AMTA could somehow use the ballots won at regionals by each ORCS team and use that to calculate TPR for teams across the board. Again, not entirely fair since teams performed better or worse at ORCS, but a lot of teams just didn't compete at ORCS at all. Every ORCS team competed at regionals, so maybe there's a way to fairly substitute those scores in to influence TPR for next year.
Personally, I think the best thing is leave the rankings unchanged. I know it sucks for teams that finally got a nationals bid this year, but it also sucks for teams that didn't even get to try for that nationals bid. Leaving things alone and trying again next year might be the most efficient way to resolve the issue of TPR. What do y'all think?
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2020-2021 TPR Empty Re: 2020-2021 TPR

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:20 pm
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I agree, it seems like the only fair way to go about this is to completely discount this entire year for next years rankings. It is incredibly unfortunate, as mentioned, but it seems like the only fair option.
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2020-2021 TPR Empty Re: 2020-2021 TPR

Wed May 20, 2020 11:36 am
One solution would be to simply count "the last three years of completion of an ORCS" which would still give the teams that did have ORCS this year the updated ranking to reflect their reality, and keeps the other teams point totals static. But certainly the "most fair" answer is throw out the 2020 results and leave things as they are. The problem is with the natural flow of competitors in and out a two year gap of information is pretty huge in this world, but if that is going to be a handicap for part of the teams it's more fair to apply it across the board.
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2020-2021 TPR Empty Re: 2020-2021 TPR

Wed May 20, 2020 11:42 am
It is still so unfortunate though for organizations like mine that have made it out of ORCS a handful of times and one of them was this past year. If we throw out the results then we won't be able to reap the benefits of this very successful season for us.
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2020-2021 TPR Empty Re: 2020-2021 TPR

Mon May 25, 2020 3:34 am
Assuming that we do not have online competitions to finish out the season, AMTA could do an "Best-Information-Available" TPR for next year, using the 3 "best" indicative seasons from the last 4 years. A.k.a., the three consecutive seasons that most (1) accurately and (2) positively reflect that team's recent performances. The caveat being I know it's not fully perfect and I'm not sure I'm totally sold on it myself, but at the very least, I've had a bit of time this weekend to explore the idea, and in my head it roughly looks something like this:

ORCS Teams would have a few possible camps in which they'd find themselves... and in each of those scenarios, I've also conveyed what I think the solution for AMTA would be to each team in determining their total number of rank points.

Baked into these scenarios are the following assumptions:
- "A" refer the best performing team from that program at ORCS this year if both A and B competed
- If two teams qualified to ORCS from the same program, they have either both already competed at ORCS this year, or neither have yet to compete at an ORC. If one has competed, and the other has yet to compete, see Scenario 7.

Scenario 1: Zoom Polytech A qualified for, but did not compete at, ORCS this (2020) season. They were previously unranked. That said, their ORCS qualification should at very least be rewarded and they should count and with 0 wins, they will enter the rankings at the bottom next season. Maybe not the most accurate picture of the kind of run they could have gone on, but at least they aren't UNranked anymore

Scenario 2: Zoom State A qualified for, but did not not compete at, ORCS this season, and were previously ranked with a TPR score higher than 0. ZSU should have TPR score calculated from the previous three years - 2017, 2018, and 2019, so that the inability to compete does not knock their current TPR value.

Scenario 3: University of Zoom A competed at ORCS and did historically well relative to the program's recent history. They would have jumped several places and increased rank points significantly next season. UofZ should, in my opinion have the most recent 3 years accounted for: 2018, 2019, and 2020, since they did earn those rank points by competing at one of the first five ORCS this year. This should happen regardless of whether they qualified to nationals or not, since we are assuming the ORCS record combined with the 2.5 multiplier will already be increasing their score, and we have no way of knowing if their nationals with a 3.5 multiplier would have increased TPR value from most recent season.

Scenario 4: Conversely, UofZ-A competed at ORCS this year, and did historically poor, *not qualifying for nationals*, so there would be no potential for a higher amount of points earned this year. In this "end of the rope" scenario, I say that their ORCS results from this season should stand, which would mean they - like scenario 3 - also have TPR calculated from 2018-2020.

Scenario 5: Zoom College A, a perennial nationals contender and frontrunner, competed in ORCS during the 2020 competitive season, doing enough to qualify to nationals again. In this scenario, their TPR should be the combination of either 2017-2019 or 2018-2020 that sees them have the highest number of rank points. If they went to nationals last year, and did well, they should be allowed to keep the Nationals multiplier that likely results in a higher TPR raw score.

Scenario 6: Zoom College A, a perennial nationals contender and frontrunner, competed in ORCS during the 2020 competitive season and did not qualify to nationals. This year's results should count.

Scenario 7: Zoom Institute of Technology A and B both qualified to ORCS, ZIT A competed at ORCS already this year. ZIT B did not get the chance. ZIT A did NOT qualify for ORCS. Before I keep going, please note that the team that got to compete at ORCS would automatically be considered ZIT A, regardless of if they were originally assigned that before ORCS given that they would have "won" more wins.
Given that ZIT B never got the chance to "take on the mantle" and see if they would qualify as the new "ZIT A," I think ZIT A, at least as recorder on the TPR spreadsheet, should be whichever of the 2 options of 3 years is most favorable to them. If the wins from the ORC they did not qualify from result in a higher TPR score, they keep 2018-2020. If not, they keep 2017-2019. ZIT B then takes the better option of what is remaining to them; keeping 2017-2019, keeping 2018-2020 with a 0 ORCS record, or keeping 2018-2020 with ZIT A's ORCS record (if ZIT A hadn't claimed it).

It should go without saying, but in this framework, if you failed to qualify for ORCS this year, you keep 2018-2020.

Let me know what you guys think, and please tell me everything wrong with it! I just wanted to throw the idea out there. Thanks.
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2020-2021 TPR Empty Re: 2020-2021 TPR

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