2021-22 Unofficial TPR (without Nats)

I've created a pre-NCT TPR based on what I anticipate it will look like next year. Click below to see it:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRb-n_KpLWj_lQnB001xhOAyFEgMvQVZ38M8wfdA3xSUFkLviRCyPLpPEjFMm94ARXAz9M-7hq5vdI2/pubhtml

I believe that, unfortunately, the limited ORCS competitions we had in 2020 will be essentially ignored. I could see the teams who did compete at ORCS having their amount of wins listed without counting them. I could also see AMTA using whether or not a team reached ORCS in 2020 as a TPR tiebreaker when possible/necessary. Otherwise, I cannot imagine that AMTA will use the 2020 ORCS results given that so many teams did not have the chance to compete.

I also anticipate that they will treat the 2019 season as the "3-years-ago" season, and thus leave the "2-years-ago" season that 2020 would have been, for TPR calculation purposes, blank.

Without the NCT, this TPR list is not a great reflection of who the top teams in the country are, but I thought it would be a fun exercise to look at it and have some sort of unofficial, yet still objective TPR since we haven't had a new one in almost 2 years.

Great work - this list seems much more reflective. I do think that using whether a team qualified to ORCS at all as a tiebreaker is the only (and best) thing to do here. If you had two teams both ranked at TPR 55, for example, but in 2020 one qualified to ORCS and the other did not, then it seems only fair to break a tie that way. Keep in mind that these tiebreakers matter especially for the open bid list. So it will be very interesting to see what, if anything, AMTA does with the 2020 results.

I've updated this list. Here are the changes:

1. All teams who earned bids to ORCS between 2019-21 should now be on this list rather than just the top 100. The lowest ranked team to make the NCT this year is #63 GW, so teams #64-285 may be an accurate reflection of what the TPR will look like next year if my assumptions about how AMTA will go about creating this TPR are correct.
2. The amount of wins from teams who competed at the 2020 ORCS has been added to the middle section with an asterisk* next to their amount of wins, denoting that the number was not used in the TPR total calculation. If a team got an ORCS bid but did not have a chance to compete, they have a 0 with 2 asterisks** next to the 0 to note that fact. If a team did not earn an ORCS bid in 2020, their 2020 section was left blank.
3. If there was a TPR tie between 2 or more teams, and 1 (or more) of those teams made ORCS in 2020 while 1 (or more) of those teams did not, the tiebreak advantage was given to the team(s) with a 2020 ORCS bid.
4. If there was a TPR tie between 2 or more teams, and EVERY TEAM involved in that tie DID compete at ORCS in 2020, the 2020 ORCS win total was used to break the tie. If even just 1 team involved in that tie earned a bid but did not have a chance to compete at ORCS in 2020, the tie was left unbroken.

Here, again, is the link to the list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRb-n_KpLWj_lQnB001xhOAyFEgMvQVZ38M8wfdA3xSUFkLviRCyPLpPEjFMm94ARXAz9M-7hq5vdI2/pubhtml

The primary flaw I noticed with this TPR calculation was toward the bottom. Many teams ranking between the 248-258 range earned a bid to ORCS in 2019, competed, earned 1-2 wins, and haven't make it back to ORCS since. It seems unfair that teams who did compete at ORCS in 2020 (but not in 2019 or 2021) ranked at the 267 spot who had more than 2 wins would still be ranked below those teams who haven't made it back since earning 2 or less wins in 2019.

I'm hopeful that this exercise opens a discussion on what is the best way to handle TPR in 2021-22 and how to treat the 2020 season in the calculation; perhaps there is a better way that I didn't consider.

While we're at it, can someone explain how to read TPRs? I can't find a legend/key anywhere. I know "CH" is championship ballots and "ORCS" is ORCS ballots but that's about it. What does X5, X3, X2.5, X0.5, etc. mean and what does ADJ, oADJ, ChAdj mean? And what about asterisks in the official TPR?

TPR is (usually) on a 3 year cycle. ADJ is adjustment so that every year is on an 8 ballot system. Some years (like ORCS this year) have more than 8 ballots so AMTA adjusts them to make it uniform across all tournaments. For example, a team who won 8 ballots at ORCS this year will have the adjustment of 5.33 wins since there were three judges per round and a team who won 8 ballots at ORCS in 2019 when there were only two judges per round will still have 8 wins listed. Each year, ORCS ballots are worth half as much as a nationals ballot. AMTA looks at both values and then gives you the higher value. Usually, if you make nationals you earn points for nationals ballots because they have double the multiplier, but some teams who don't do amazing at nationals actually earn more points using their ORCS ballot than their NTC ballots so those asterisks indicate which point value is being used. Each year is also weighted differently with most recent year being worth more points. So the most recent year (2019) has nationals ballots multiplied by 5 points and ORCS 2.5 points (aka the X5, X2.5). Second most year is multiplied by 3 and 1.5 respectively. Third year is 1 and 0.5 respectively.