Open Bid Watch

Two weeks of regionals are in the books, and there are currently just 8 open bids. It looks like there will not be as many open bids given out this yer as compared to previous years, and the open bid list also will include multiple 6 ballot teams for the first time in a while (potentially ever?). I am going to try to compile a list of all the possible open bids that can be created this upcoming week. For each regional, I will list the teams that can create additional open bids by getting a direct bid to ORCs. I will also note if there are any teams to watch out for, as they are part of programs that have the potential to get more than 2 bids but have other teams competing after this weekend.

Dayton: 2 potential open bids
Miami C can create an open bid
Penn State A AND B getting out creates an open bid
Watch out for: Michigan State C/D, Cincinnati C

Des Moines: 2 potential open bids
Chicago A OR D can create an open bid, while both getting out creates 2
Watch out for: Illinois B/C

Jackson: 2 potential open bids
Georgia Tech A OR B can create an open bid, while both getting out creates 2
Watch out for: Alabama C/D and Georgia B/D

Lawrence: 2 potential open bids
Missouri A AND C getting out creates an open bid
Iowa A AND B getting out creates an open bid

New Haven: 0 potential open bids
Watch out for: BU B/C and Yale B/C

New Rochelle: 0 potential open bids
Watch out for: Tufts C/D

Providence: 0 potential open bids
Watch out for: Connecticut B/C

Tallahassee: 3 potential open bids
Florida B OR E can create an open bid, while both getting out creates 2
Florida State B AND C can create an open bid
Watch out for: Georgia A/C and Emory C

Tempe: 4 potential open bids
UCLA B OR C can create an open bid, while both getting out creates 2
ASU B OR D can create an open bid, while both getting out creates 2
Watch out for: Arizona C/D

Washington DC: 0 potential open bids
Watch out for: American B/C and Rutgers A/C

Williamsburg: 1 potential open bid
Maryland C AND D can create an open bid
Watch out for: GW A/C

Keeping in mind that Georgia can create 2 open bids by getting all 4 of its teams a bid, by my count there are up to 18 open bids that can be created this weekend. Let me know if there's anything I missed, and good luck to all the teams competing this weekend.

Thanks for doing this! Quick correction I caught. FSU B and C getting out would only create 1 open bid! They have four teams and two were in Orlando, but only one made it out.

Michigan State A can't even make a nats run. I don't think it's realistic to think Michigan State C/D is going to create an open bid.

MSU A was pretty close to making nats last year, and they got 2 ORCS bids. Their A through D teams have all put together impressive results. I wouldn't be surprised to see C or D (if not both) get a bid.

I'd say Cincinnati C is more likely. A generally consistent nats program, their C team almost got out of regionals last year if I'm not mistaken. I think if we're contending MSU D there are more potential open bids to be made with Cincinnati C in Dayton

throwaway wrote:I'd say Cincinnati C is more likely. A generally consistent nats program, their C team almost got out of regionals last year if I'm not mistaken. I think if we're contending MSU D there are more potential open bids to be made with Cincinnati C in Dayton

Cincinnati C had a worse record at regionals last year than MSU C and D. That said, I think it's fair to say that Cincy does have a real shot at getting three teams out. I'll add them.

Seems about right on. Looks to be on the low side overall for open bids compared to past years but still a bit over 20 total. It should account for all the teams that had good weekends but just wound up with close calls in tough draws that can still perform at ORCS and be a small enough group to keep from having teams at ORCS that will only serve to inflate records.

This past weekend saw 8 open bids created. Heading into the final weekend of regionals, we are now at 16 open bids. Here is each regional and the potential open bids that can be created.

Arlington: 1 potential open bid
Rhodes A and C can create 1 open bid

Chapel Hill: 4 potential open bids
Florida D can create 1 open bid
Duke B can create 1 open bid
North Carolina C/D can create up to 2 open bids

Chestnut Hill: 3 potential open bids
Brown B and C can create 1 open bid
Boston College A and D can create 1 open bid
UMass C can create 1 open bid

Colorado Springs: 1 potential open bid
Arizona A and B can create 1 open bid

Columbus: 2 potential open bids
OSU B and C can create 1 open bid
Michigan C can create 1 open bid

Fresno: 4 potential open bids
Cal Davis B and C can create 1 open bid
Irvine B/D can create up to 2 open bids
Fresno State B and C can create 1 open bid
Berkeley B and C can create 1 open bid
SLO B and C can create 1 open bid
(This regional only gives 6 ORCS bids, so it's impossible for all teams listed to create open bids)

Louisville: 1 potential open bid
Patrick Henry A and B can create 1 open bid

Owings Mills: 3 potential open bids
Tufts A and B can create 1 open bid
UMBC B and C can create 1 open bid
Wesleyan B and C can create 1 open bid
Princeton C can create an open bid if B/C get out, although this regional can only create a maximum of 3 open bids

St. Paul: 3 potential open bids
Macalaster C can create 1 open bid
Minnesota B and C can create 1 open bid
Hamlin B and C can create 1 open bid

By my count, there are 22 potential new open bids that can be created this weekend Please let me know if I miscounted or missed any. Additional open bids can come through teams dropping out or declining a bid. Good luck to everyone on the open bid list and to everyone competing this weekend.

TheRealMockProdigy wrote:By my count, there are 16 potential new open bids that can be created this weekend Please let me know if I miscounted or missed any. Additional open bids can come through teams dropping out or declining a bid. Good luck to everyone on the open bid list and to everyone competing this weekend.

Great job, and thank you for doing this.  A couple of minor things - first, I believe that you may have miscounted.  I count 21 potential new open bids from what you already have.

Additionally, Hamline B and C can create an open bid in St. Paul since Hamline A made it out of Des Moines last week.  Princeton is also sending 3 teams this to compete this week - A and B in Chestnut Hill and C in Owings Mills.  If all 3 get out, they would create an open bid.

If all of my math/counting is correct, I believe that would make a potential of 23 new open bids that could be created this weekend.

Thanks for pointing out Hamline. I can include Princeton, but it won't change the actual number of open bids that can be created. Owings Mills only has 6 bids, so if Princeton C gets out, there can only be 5 other teams getting out. That means a maximum of only 2 other open bids can be created at that regional, so there are still only 3 open bids that can be created. I think that means 22 total open bids can be created.

Now that Regionals are over, any thoughts on how many Open Bids there might be? Last year every 4.5 team got a bid, so all but the bottom 3 open bids. This year there are a lot more Open Bids, though- if we see as many bids as in 2019, only the top 2 4.5-ballot teams will go to ORCS. But we already have more open bids than 2y ago.

Will we see 47 open bids again? More? Less? Lots of 5-ballot teams without earned bids.

There are currently 26 open bids ready to be given. There won’t be any more than that. There could be less if any teams are awarded “Act-of-AMTA” bids. So looking at the list, the top 26 will likely be offered bids. Now if any decline, that opens up an opportunity for a lower team to be offered that bid that is still at-large. Right now Connecticut is #26. And they are about 20 spots higher than the first 4.5 win team. So unfortunately, no - I don’t believe any 4.5 win teams will make it out this year. It’s also very possible that no 5 win teams that already have another team from their program with bid will have an open bid offered to them. And I think a few of the 5 win teams with lower CS’s even as their program’s first team, will not be offered at large bids, because there may not be any left by the time it gets to them.