Open Bid Watch 2024

We enter the final weekend of regionals with 25 Open Bids available. Here is a look at the regionals this upcoming weekend and how many additional open bids can be created, as well as other results that can either move a team down the open bid list (due to the second tiebreaker being whether or not a school already has an ORCS bid) or move a team off the list (due to a school already having 2 bids).

Arlington: 3
If Texas A&M C gets a Direct Bid here and Texas A&M A/B both get Direct Bids in Waco, 1 new Open Bid will be created. Arkansas can create up to 2 Open Bids if their A/B get Direct Bids here and their C/D get Direct Bids in Norman.

Columbia: 3
Furman C getting a Direct Bid would create 1 Open Bid. Emory A/B getting Direct Bids would create 1 Open Bid. Florida B/C getting Direct Bids would create 1 Open Bid.
Davidson A/B getting a direct bid would remove Davidson C from the open bid list. Either one getting a direct bid would move Davidson B down on the list.

Columbus: 0
No Open Bids can be created here.
Penn State A/C getting a Direct Bid bid remove Penn State B from the open bid list. Either one getting a direct bid would move Penn State B down on the Open Bid List.

Fresno: 3
Stanford A/B getting Direct Bids would create 1 Open Bid. Cal Poly SLO B/C getting Direct Bids would create 1 Open Bid. UC Berkeley C/D getting Direct Bids would create 1 Open Bid. UC Irvine A/B getting Direct Bids would create 1 Open Bid. Not all of those teams can get direct bids, so the maximum number of Open Bids from this regional is still 3.
UC Davis A/B getting a direct bid would remove UC Davus C from the open bid list. Either one getting a direct bid would move UC Davis B down on the list.

Haverford: 2
American B getting a Direct Bid would create 1 Open Bid. Georgetown C getting a Direct Bid would create 1 Open Bid.
Rutgers C getting a Direct Bid would remove Rutgers B from the Open Bid List. Boston College C getting a Direct Bid would remove Boston College D from the Open Bid List.

New London: 3
BU A/B both getting Direct Bids would create 1 Open Bid. Princeton A getting a Direct Bid would create 1 Open Bid. UMass Amherst B/C both getting Direct Bids would create 1 Open Bid.
Northeastern C getting a direct bid would move Northeastern A down on the open bid list.

Norman: 1
Rhodes A/B both getting Direct Bids would create 1 Open Bid. Arkansas can create up to 2 Open Bids if their C/D get Direct Bids here and their A/B get Direct Bids in Arlington. The Arkansas open bids are counted towards Arlington's total.

Spartanburg: 5
Georgia C/D getting Direct Bids would create 2 Open Bids. Alabama C/D getting Direct Bids would create 2 Open Bids. Duke B/C both getting Direct Bids would create 1 Open Bid. Florida State A/B both getting Direct Bids would create 1 Open Bid. Not all of these teams can get direct bids, so the maximum number is still 5.
Georgia Tech A/B both getting Direct Bids would remove Georgia Tech D from the Open Bid List. Either one getting a bid would move Georgia Tech D down on the list.
South Carolina B/C both getting Direct Bids would remove South Carolina A from the Open Bid List. Either one getting a bid would move South Carolina down on the list.

Waco: 0
If Texas A&M A/B both get Direct Bids here and Texas A&M C gets a Direct Bid in Arlington, 1 new Open Bid will be created. This open bid is counted toward's Arlington's total.

Wheaton: 4
Indiana A/C both getting Direct Bids would create 1 Open Bid. Drake B/C both getting Direct Bids would create one Open Bid. Illinois B/C both getting Direct Bids would create 1 Open Bid. Chicago C/D can each create an Open Bid by getting a Direct Bid.
Missouri A getting a direct bid would move Missouri B down on the Open Bid List.
Cornell College C getting a Direct Bid would move Cornell College A down on the Open Bid List.

This is a total of 24 Open Bids that can be created. From the 20 regionals that have occurred so far, there are currently 55 teams on the Open Bid List, 47 of whom have at least 5 ballots. At this rate, the 10 regionals this weekend should generate a little under 30 additional teams to the open bid list, while a few teams will be removed as well. I would also expect around 10 of the 24 potential open bids to actually be created. Based on these estimates, I don't think 4.5 ballots will be enough, and it could be very tight for teams with 5 ballots and a low CS, even if their school does not already have a bid. Good luck to everyone competing this weekend, and please let me know if I've made any errors.

Thanks for doing this! Seems like a pretty tough year for Open Bids. 5 wins and a CS of 14 usually gets you an open bid for sure, but does not seem to be the case this year...

For some reason the AMTA site doesn't have last year's open bid list. You can find it here if curious: https://web.archive.org/web/20230805175306/https://www.collegemocktrial.org/tournaments-/opening-round-championship-/orcs-open-bid-list/

Looking at the list, any team that isn't a first team is going to be massively sweating with just 5 wins, and teams will low CS's that are first teams will as well.