St. Paul ORCS analysis: One B1G Clusterfuck

Hey everyone its your favorite impeachments user, dinglebingus. With the complaints pointed toward MAIMD in Mock Trial Confessions this year I decided to try my hand at a little analysis of my own, more focused on details and less on power rankings and stuff. I love everything the you at MAIMD do and hope that this generates more discussion!

Disclaimer: I am one person that does mock trial in the Midwest and have competed against many of the teams at this ORCS and the Geneva ORCS (there’s my identity reveal Mock Trial Confessions).

Unlike AMTA, I can assign groups in a timely manner.

Bracket A	Bracket B	Bracket C	Bracket D
Michigan A	Iowa A	Cornell College A	Bethany Lutheran A
Northwestern A	Macalester A	Oregon B	Iowa B
Cal, Berkeley A	Michigan B	Portland A	Howard B
Wisconsin A	Oregon A	Washington A	Minnesota B
Fordham, Lincoln Center A	Northwestern B	Missouri A	Wake Forest A
Minnesota A	Drake A	Carleton A	High Point A

First, an overview. The St. Paul ORCS for all intents and purposes replaced the Cedar Rapids Iowa ORCs of old. Included in that is AMTA’s utterly bizarre obsession with a coast-to-coast event. One of the most interesting things about this year’s St. Paul is that just two teams that bidded out of this location last year are returning. That probably has something to do with AMTA’s reliance on open bids to fill out the power here, with Boston University and Patrick Henry B bidding out from open bids last year. Also departing for Geneva are UChicago A and B, who have been replaced by nearby Michigan A and Northwestern A. Notably, there are still 6 returning nationals teams to this location.

Group A: Minnesota A, Wisconsin A, Michigan A, Northwestern A, UC Berkeley A, Fordham Lincoln Center A

At first glance, this A bracket seems unassuming. Every ORCS A bracket should look similar in power rankings. A few teams in single digits or teens, 3 teams between 20-40, and a team around 48. And if you had asked anyone in the Midwest three weeks ago, they would think it looks as they expected. But it’s not, because there have undoubtedly been heated discussions going on inside the practice rooms of two of these B1G schools the past two weeks. Wisconsin A and Minnesota A both left their regionals without a bid in hand. The two Minnesota bids here at this ORCS are their B and C teams, and Madison’s bid was earned by their B team.

That Minnesota A (formerly B) team earned they way to ORCS by beating a handful of solid but few elite programs. Their best round was a W/T ballot against fellow St. Paul ORCS attendee Bethany Lutheran A, while they dropped ballots to both Creighton A and Central A who failed to bid. Normally teams in this bracket are teams who stomped through regionals with a 6 to 8 win record, maybe dropping a ballot or two to the other elite team at their regional. The biggest question mark here is what is happening to the remnants of their fallen A team? I won’t pretend to know what any program aside from my own does for stacking, but all eyes will be on Minnesota’s two remaining teams to see what they made out an unexpected regional result.

On the other hand, this is no surprise to the other B1G school in the same situation. Wisconsin A has managed to put all their eggs in the B team basket for the third consecutive year. Is it a strategy at this point? Someone call everyone’s favorite Midwest AMTA rep Diane on an investigation. Wisconsin B had a remarkably similar run to this point as Minnesota, dropping ballots to a variety of analytically good, but not elite teams. Their regionals run had ballots lost to Iowa B, Macalester B, and Loyola Chicago A. All good programs, but only Iowa B made the run to ORCS alongside them. Unlike Minnesota, they only had one lower team qualify to ORCS, meaning that those roster spots are far more competitive than Minnesota and its less likely fallen members of the A team will show up alongside those who earned their way here in blood.

These two struggling programs are joined by two B1G titans ranked in the teens who have remained in the upper echelon of mock trial programs for the better part of a decade but never been able to string together a championship run. Michigan and Northwestern.

Michigan A is the highest ranked team here at the B1G Invitational, coming off a very hot run at nationals last year and a very respectable third place finish at Great Chicago Fire this year, sweeping Boston University and taking ballots off Indiana, Hillsdale, and Yale. However, they aren’t without a few question marks. Two years ago, they failed to qualify for nationals posting losses to three separate teams that didn’t make nationals either. Additionally, they had the rather strange result at regionals of losing a ballot to at-the-time 2-4 Macalester B, which should give hope to the unfortunate Group D team that matches against them round 1 in the twin cities. Still, these are nitpicks in an otherwise sharp wolverine resume and a preponderance of the evidence suggests they will bid out.

Northwestern A is the other side of the B1G coin. While they performed slightly worse than Michigan at last year’s nationals, they’ve gone .500 or better at the last three in a row, which is more than any other team here can say. Their regional resume also looks nearly spotless compared to Michigan, dropping just a half a ballot to fellow B1G team and ORCS competitor Iowa A before subsequently getting their revenge by dashing Iowa C’s hopes at ORCS. They also performed admirably at Great Chicago Fire, taking ballots off Virginia, UT Austin, Madison, and UCLA, but failed to sweep any of them. Still, that’s more than most of these teams could say and they are up there with Michigan as clear favorites to bid.

I’m contractually obligated to inform you that as much as they would like to be a member of the club, UC Berkeley failed to receive an invitation to the B1G these past few years and is certainly out for revenge (if mock trial participants at Berkeley even know what sports are). While they weren’t in St. Paul last year, Berkeley is no stranger to this field, attending ORCs in Cedar Rapids as recently as 2022. Cal has the second most consistent nationals performance after Northwestern, but again, hasn’t experienced the epic highs and lows of Michigan A. Unfortunately, as a humble midwestern man, I don’t have any personal experience with this program or anyone they’ve competed against, so the best I can do is go off tab summaries. Here, Cal also lies in the middle of Northwestern and Michigan, splitting a ballot with Oregon and dropping one to Washington, both of whom are also attending this ORCS. Will Cal avenge their decidedly average sports teams or go the same way their athletic director did last year in the midwest and return empty handed? Signs point to revenge, but nothing is ever certain in St. Paul.

Our final A bracket team is Fordham Lincoln Center A, who I’m starting to suspect has obtained a time machine alongside fellow ORCS attendee Washington. Why? Because just five short months ago, despite being on opposite sides of the country, those two teams’ names were called one after another at the award ceremony of one of the first tournaments of the invitational season. The location of that tournament? St. Paul, Minnesota. There, Fordham’s two teams hit teams from six different programs that all made ORCs up here in the twin cities. Drake, Iowa, Minnesota, Carleton, Washington, and Missouri. Which all goes to say that Fordham may be more familiar with the style of Mock Trial up in the North Midwest than most would expect. Fordham has also strung together appearances at the last three national tournaments, though with less success than Northwestern, Michigan, and Cal. Still, there’s a reason Fordham got shipped out this far—because they failed to bid out of the Washington D.C. regionals after dropping two ballots to Yale B and tying with Virginia Tech A. Still, a 5.5 win record at regionals would have gotten them a big in 90% of the regionals in the country and thus the open bid status should mostly be disregarded. More importantly, this bid is actually Fordham’s B team, just like Madison and Minnesota.

Overall, there are far more questions about the teams here in the A bracket than usual, with three being represented by B teams instead of their self-designated A teams. Will these teams be able to beat the allegations, or will St. Paul quickly devolve into a bloodbath of lower ranked upsets?

Group B: Iowa A, Macalester A, Michigan B, Oregon A, Northwestern B, Drake A.

Did I say we were done with the B1G invitational? We were just warming up. While the A bracket has several question marks, the B bracket is arguably one of the scariest in the country.

First, we have the Iowa twins, two programs with more history in mock trial than almost anyone else with two titles each—Drake A and Iowa A, and interestingly enough, teams that both dropped ballots to Boston University last year at ORCS

Firstm we have what I believe is the most underrated team in the country. Drake A, a team that hasn’t made nationals for as far back as I cared to look. Despite frequently competing in the same tournaments, I’ve only competed against Drake a single time, two years ago, and they didn’t stand out from the dozens of other Midwest programs. So when I first heard Drake’s name called this year for a podium, I was intrigued. But then it happened again. And again. And it’s not just their records that are impressive, but the scores behind them. I don’t know what this team does in round, but it makes the difference between them and the opposing team so pronounced that they finished the Des Moines regional with a 6-2 record and a whopping +112 point differential, 23 points higher than 8-0 Northwestern. Speaking of Northwestern, they’re the only team Drake has lost to in the past two tournaments, a stretch including 2-0 wins against Macalester A, Air Force A, and Kansas A, all ORCS teams, and more often than not with point differentials in the double digits. Can Drake avenge their -6, -7 loss to Northwestern at regionals? Or perhaps avoid them altogether? Something magical is happening at Drake, and I hope that I’m not on the receiving end of it in March.

The other half of this duo is Iowa A, a program that impressively qualified two teams to nationals right before it was cancelled for COVID. That was four years ago, everyone on those teams is gone, and Iowa only has one national appearance to show for it since, which ended with a disappointing record. Still, they put up good enough ORCs performances every year that keeps them in the top of the B bracket, losing out to Chicago A last year in the final round and posting a 5 win and 4.5 win record the past two years. Iowa A had an impressive performance at regionals for a B bracket team, taking both ballots off Minnesota A and tying a ballot with Northwestern A, making this a team that A bracket teams do not want to see in the final round of ORCS.

Next is the pair of B1G B teams, Northwestern and Michigan. While their A teams’ performance this year at regionals was two sides of the same coin, their B teams were less so.

First, Michigan B, who technically finished as the A team at the Madison regional given their higher CS. Their only question mark was dropping a ballot to Minnesota C (now B), but otherwise posted a perfect regional with all double digit wins (many being 20+ points) against some decent teams like Loyola C and Carleton A (who just got the last open bid to Geneva). Even in their split round to Minnesota C, the ballot they won was +17. They also have a fair bit of an advantage going into round 4 by not being able to be matched against Michigan A, making their potential path to a bid all that much easier.

On the other hand, Northwestern B, from a notoriously deep program, had a rocky regionals without their C or D team qualifying and the B team dropping some easier ballots. Their only sweep was against a 2-6 Quincy, while they dropped ballots to Cornell A (who open bidded) and Creighton A, while tying a ballot with Creighton B. Unless they step up their game in the next two weeks, those same results are a fast way to 3-5 or 4-4 at ORCS and Northwestern B would be going home early. Still, this is a dangerous team from a dangerous program that still managed 4.5 wins last year at ORCS and can never be counted out.

Our next team is from one of the programs likely most disappointed by their performance at ORCS. Macalester A, who qualified to nationals last year from this same bracket. Their failure to direct bid out of regionals can somewhat be attributed to an unlucky schedule. Facing a 3-3 Wisconsin A in the fourth round as a 4-2 team? Still, they only found themselves in that position after dropping a ballot to Wisconsin Lutheran. This team posted some impressive invitational results and absolutely has the capacity to make consecutive appearances at nationals.

At last, we have our final B bracket team: Oregon A. A team that I, and everyone else at this tournament aside from the other west coast teams, have absolutely no idea about. Oregon was not in the pod of west coast teams that were a regular at the Cedar Rapids ORCS, nor are they a team that regularly makes cross country trips to visit the idiots out wandering around. Obviously since they’re in the B bracket they put up 4-5 win ORCs performances regularly. Oregon is also a very large program, fielding 4 teams, more than every program here aside from Northwestern. Speaking of Northwest, it’s the only part of the country more isolated than some of the programs here. The teams from that part of the country have regular ~10-14 team invitations that Oregon often makes up almost half of. Still, at the one result they have from outside their bubble, CUBAIT in New York, they took two ballots off the Michigan team attending, showing that their frequent 6 and 7 win records in the Northwest is more than just pacific magic. Will Oregon be able to take home a nationals bid in St. Paul and send a mighty quack to rest of the B1G teams in attendance ahead of their sports teams next year? In the strange world of the St. Paul ORCS, its certainly possible.

Overall, while complaints about geographic travel are more applicable to the St. Paul ORCS than anywhere else, the power level in these upper two brackets alone are certainly going to lead to excitement in early March. This analysis took a lot longer than expected, but I would happily do the other 12 teams if people like how this went. I did this because I was bored, so feel free to tear me apart.

This is all fine and good and all. But ORCs????????? ORCs???????????? THE FULL ACRONYM IS OPEN ROUND CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES. SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES.

SERIES IS PART OF THE ACRONYM. You don't see me going "PEMDAs" LIKE THAT WOULD BE SO SILLY. OR OR OR OR "NFl". PLEASE FIX THIS I AM BEGGING YOU.

URMOM wrote:This is all fine and good and all. But ORCs????????? ORCs???????????? THE FULL ACRONYM IS OPEN ROUND CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES. SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES SERIES.

SERIES IS PART OF THE ACRONYM. You don't see me going "PEMDAs" LIKE THAT WOULD BE SO SILLY. OR OR OR OR "NFl". PLEASE FIX THIS I AM BEGGING YOU.

The true and based take is that both are correct depending on the context.

ORCS = the Open Round Championship Series
ORCs = Open Round Championships

If I go to St. Paul for ORCS, I'm not going to one Championship Series. I'm going to one Championship. One Open Round Series Championship. One ORC.

Two of an Open Round Championship is

Correct: In 2020, I qualified for ORCS = In 2020, I qualified for the Open Round Championship Series.
Incorrect: In 2020, I qualified for ORCs = In 2020, I qualified for Open Round Championships.

Correct: After Regionals is ORCS = After Regionals is the Open Round Championship Series.
Correct: After Regionals are ORCs = After Regionals are Open Round Championships.

Incorrect: I am going to the St. Paul ORCS = I am going to the St. Paul Open Round Championship Series.
Incorrect: I am going to the St. Paul ORCs = I am going to the St. Paul Open Round Championships.
Correct: I am going to the St. Paul ORC = I am going to the St. Paul Open Round Championship.

Correct: I competed at ORCS two years in a row = I competed at the Open Round Championship Series two years in a row.
Correct: I competed at ORCs two years in a row = I competed at Open Round Championships two years in a row.
Correct: I competed at two ORCs = I competed at two Ope Round Championships.

Also correct: I am going to the St. Paul ORCS Tournament = I am going to the St. Paul Open Round Championship Series Tournament.

If you think I'm lying, check the AMTA website. Compare the "Tournaments" navbar dropdown's entry for "Open Round Championships" with the ORCS page discussing "the ORCS round of competition" and getting "a bid to an Opening Round Championship Series Tournament."

I'll get the Four for Four, sub the soft drink for a small Frostie. Extra ketchup packets please.

As someone with a vague basketball reference in my username, I appreciate the B1G references. Can't wait for UCLA and USC to get beat down on a rainy thursday in the midwest