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Dinglebingus
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St. Paul ORCS Bracket C and D Analysis: Dark Horses Empty St. Paul ORCS Bracket C and D Analysis: Dark Horses

Wed Mar 06, 2024 7:48 pm
Should I be writing some Coppola crosses for ORCS? Nah, none of these teams are going to call them, so instead I’m going to spend two more hours (probably) pissing people off writing about the St. Paul ORC

As a reminder, here’s the group list.









Bracket A
Bracket B
Bracket C
Bracket D
Michigan A
Iowa A
Cornell College A
Bethany Lutheran A
Northwestern A
Macalester A
Oregon B
Iowa B
Cal, Berkeley A
Michigan B
Portland A
Howard B
Wisconsin A
Oregon A
Washington A
Minnesota B
Fordham, Lincoln Center A
Northwestern B
Missouri A
Wake Forest A
Minnesota A
Drake A
Carleton A
High Point A
Group C: Cornell College A, Oregon B, Washington A, Portland A, Missouri A, Carleton A

Group C is a mixed bag, with half the Seattle teams residing, making it undoubtedly the group I have the least personal experience with, and much of the reason it took me another week to write this.

To start, we have Washington A, the other half of the time traveling duo from my last write-up (the other being Fordham), and the only team from the west coast at this tournament that’s been to the Midwest this year. That experience could certainly be beneficial, as they 2-0ed (presumably unstacked) Drake and Macalester B, both programs they have a chance to hit round one here at this ORC. More notably, Washington is the only team in this group to have split a ballot with an A bracket team at regionals (kinda, we’ll get to that later), with a true tie round against UC Berkeley A (+2,-2). With that result, they actually finished at the top of the Seattle Regionals with an impressive 7-1 record, beating out Gonzaga A, Reed A, and UC Berkeley B (who open bidded) 2-0 each, making their resume the best in this group. Still, there are question marks. Like Oregon (and upcoming Portland), this team rarely competes outside their bubble, and in a case like this year’s that can be you are unpracticed against popular theories in the Midwest. Additionally, the Huskies failed to even qualify for ORCS last year, meaning that this team is likely less experienced than many others here, even in the lower groups. Will that inexperience be their downfall? It wasn’t at regionals, so for now, Washington remains the favorite for this group.

Next is Portland A, the single team on this list I know the least amount about. Portland’s only trip this year outside the pacific northwest was down the coast to UC San Diego back in November, where they managed to be the only non-UC Irvine team to place. Their most impressive round was a split ballot to tournament winner UC Irvine A (stacking status unknown) and beating up on some programs that didn’t qualify for ORCS. Still, they had a solid, if less impressive than Washington, performance at regionals, 4-0ing Gonzaga’s A and C team and splitting ballots with Oregon A, who is at this ORCS, and Washington B, who was less impressive at regionals. With a real lack of data points against elite teams, its impossible to predict how this team will do at ORCS, but the split against Oregon suggests that teams shouldn’t write them off either.

Finally, our last west team is Oregon B, and while a lot of what I said about Oregon as a program last week holds true, there are far more questions about Oregon B’s regional resume than A’s. The summary is this: They smacked up Central Washington in round one, then proceeded to split ballots to a lot of teams that didn’t qualify for ORCS, like Gonzaga A and Oregon State (4.5 and 4 wins respectively). Their best win came from a split ballot to UC Berkeley B. The best supporting evidence for them comes from the fact that they’ve competed at ORCS the past two years, more than their fellow west coast teams, and that the Oregon program is incredibly deep, meaning that they’re far more likely to have experienced, level headed competitors at an ORCS that is likely to be crazy.

Finally, we’re back to the Midwest, with three more teams I have competed against.

First is Cornell College A, who finds themselves at the top of the group by seed, earned by their distinguished streak of ORCS appearances, appearing every year since 2013 when the tournament was created. Still, they’ve failed to put up an elite performance at ORCS since 2019, their last national appearance, and before the tenure of any current member of the team. Their invitational records this year were uninspiring, with just one winning record. They also failed to directly bid out of Des Moines, with an unassuming 5-3 record. But that record, and Cornell’s recent history, hide a lot of details indicating that Cornell might be a stronger team than they appear. First, as anyone who follows MAIMD knows (and if you’re reading this you definitely do), Cornell College recently hired Max Handler, formerly of WashU St. Louis, as a coach in the midst of the season. They didn’t compete at a single invitational this semester, meaning that they’ve gone over three months without an inclusion in a tab summary, and finally, at regionals, they faced one of the hardest paths of teams of anyone at this ORCS. After a lackluster split to Concordia College in round 1, they had to run a gauntlet of Creighton B (2-0), Northwestern B (1-1), and Minnesota A (1-1) to even make the open bid list. Of course, Minnesota A technically isn’t the same team in the A bracket at this ORCS since they didn’t qualify, its still incredibly impressive. Under new management, with wins against a pseudo A bracket team and a B bracket team, Cornell is certainly not the pushover some might think.

Next is another open bid, this one from St. Louis, in Missouri A. A team that failed to qualify for ORCS last year and put up mediocre results at the two prior. Looking at their regional results, there are both very positive and negative developments. Let’s start with the negative: Missouri A failed to qualify (or open bid) out of Wheaton, meaning that this is their initial B team, Missouri B failed to direct bid, and this team failed to take a single ballot off a team that qualified to ORCS. That being said, all hope is not lost, because they did come out of Saint Louis with a 5.5 record, which would have given them a bid at most regionals. Secondly, they did only manage to lose to UChicago B, a nationals returning team that went 8-0, by 7 and 10 points. To be honest, this whole tournament was probably the biggest clusterfuck in the country, with 3 teams missing round one, making the pairings incredibly funky and making it very hard to evaluate results. Missouri had a lot to prove, and wasn’t really given the opportunity to prove it. Their most interesting results is a +12, 0 round against Truman State, the result that cost them their direct bid to Memphis and is certainly not something they want to repeat at ORCS.

Our last team is one of the quietest in the country, but one that seems to be on the upswing, Carleton College A, or is it B…? This is a fascinating development that doesn’t happen often. Carleton B directly bid out of Madison with a record of 6.5 wins, while B open bid into Geneva with 5 wins (Carleton say thank you for coastal travel times). Which puts them in a strange position, because AMTA rules state that you must accurately label your A/B teams, and they clearly believed their A team was better, but performed worse. Still, this happens all the time, like with Minnesota A and B here, but with those teams being sent to different ORCS, it’s a whole new topic, so I’ll have to take a brief look at both. Carleton B, the team that bid here, had a respectable record of 6.5 wins, but didn’t face a single ORCS qualifying team on that path. They dropped a ballot to Macalester B and tied one with St. Olaf A, both teams that didn’t make it to this stage. Carleton A, on the other hand, faced harder teams, dropping two ballots to Michigan A round 1 and dropping one to the same school their B team hit, St. Olaf A. Unlike every other team in this group, neither Carleton team took a ballot off an ORCS qualifying team. Keep that up, and it’s a quick ticket out of ORCS, but Carleton is here for a reason: they’ve qualified to the last 3 ORCS, but never made their way to nationals.

Group D: Bethany Lutheran A, Iowa B, Howard B, Minnesota B, Wake Forest A, High Point A

First, lets pour one out for our east coast friends, getting shipped all the way to St. Paul because of AMTA’s shitty systems.

With that in mind, lets start with Wake Forest A, a team that’s never made ORCS before and unfortunately has a ~15 hour drive ahead of them (have you left yet at my time of posting?). With this being their first ORCS, Wake Forest has already proven they’re better than any team in the history of their school. But with AMTA shipping them halfway across the country, they have something new to prove: that they should have been in DC. Wake’s best accomplishment at regionals this year was splitting ballots with otherwise-undefeated Maryland C at regionals this year, which placed them at 5-1 going into the final round where they dropped both ballots to at-the-time 2-4 Radford A, which is what got them stuck in the cold. With few tab summaries to their name and little program history, there’s not much else to say about Wake except that I hope they fare better than their basketball team did away from home this year. Everyone at St. Paul is rooting for you, but none of them will go easy on you.

Next is High Point A, who managed to have even less data and a resume eerily similar to Carleton A/B’s. Handily beating teams beneath them, but losing to the few competitive teams they encountered. In High Point’s case, they beat Davidson B and Flagler A, both ending 2-6, while splitting with Georgia State B and dropping both ballots to Davidson A. Their only other existing tab summary, at Davidson invitation, told a similar story: losing to elite teams and handily beating a bunch of mediocre ones. It’s unclear if High Point has ever made ORCS before, but if they have, its been a long time. If High Point wants to compete in the Twin cities this weekend, they’ll need to hope they match up well against the insular midwestern mock trial circuit.

Our final team from out east is Howard B, the B team to a team that’s perennially on the cusp of nationals, but only occasionally making it out. Also a team that is in the same situation as Carleton A/B, with this being their technical A team that failed to direct bid out of Williamsburg. In Carleton’s case, the difference between the teams was fairly inconsequential, but for Howard this could mean an incredibly opportunity. See, Howard competed at the now controversial Williamsburg regional, where Washington and Lee was penalized for invention of fact (see tab summary and recent CIC opinions). However, by the time that was caught and penalized, Howard B had already confirmed their bid to the Twin Cities. This team, assuming it’s the same team that went 5-3, had some truly absurd regional point swings, with a whopping +124 points in just four ballots, but going 1-3 in the other four. Those losses came from powerhouse University of Virginia, who swept them, and University of Delaware, who they split with. Still, they kept it close with Virginia, making this one of the most absurd regional runs in the country. With minimal invitational experience, this team may fall behind against the some of the Midwest programs that compete 4-6 times before regionals, but with their recent history at ORCS, I expect Howard to be one of the scariest teams in this bracket, regardless of which team actually shows up.

Finally, we’re in the home stretch with a team school that is like Cornell College in some ways, Bethany Lutheran A. How so? Both schools are small, midwestern schools that offer mock trial scholarships. The difference? Bethany Lutheran got into the game far later and qualified for ORCS for the first time last year. There, they had a mediocre two win and out performance. This year, with just a single invitational under their belt, many may have expected even that success to be a fluke, but this year’s regionals showed otherwise, with Bethany reaching 6.5 wins. Still, those wins have questions, with none being against a team with a winning record. Their one round against an ORCS qualifying team was against Minnesota B (now A) in round two, where they picked up a tied ballot and dropped the other. If Bethany wants to do better than their 2 win performance last year, they’ll need more than that. But if there’s anything I know about small private schools in Minnesota, it’s that you shouldn’t underestimate them.

Finally, we have another pair of B1G schools from the Madison regional rounding out St. Paul, first is Minnesota B (formerly C). It’s rare to see an A team from a school fail to qualify and both lower teams doing so, but those who compete in this area know Minnesota to be a deep program. Everything I said about their A team applies here in that we really don’t know who might show up on this team at ORCS. 3 weeks is a long time, and adding experienced competitors from that A team could help shore up weaknesses that they found in Madison. Minnesota’s time at regionals was very impressive for a lower ranked team, easily sweeping two middling teams before splitting a ballot against Michigan B, which is the best win of any bracket D team yet. However, the high from that win was likely diminished by dropping a ballot to then-2.5 win St. Norbert. Minnesota B, especially after a three week break, is definitely not a team that either Michigan, or anyone from the upper brackets, wants to see on day 1.

Lastly, we have Iowa B, a team that, as MAIMD pointed out, has made ORCS every other year since COVID. They’re a program that absolutely shotguns tournaments in the fall, but compete at very few as stacked teams, making them hard to predict. Iowa B is also the team from this bracket that has most recently made nationals. Iowa B continued in their higher team’s footsteps and had a solid run at regionals, sweeping two non-qualifying teams and splitting ballots against Loyola C and more importantly, Wisconsin Madison B (now A). It’s that second round that should be giving Iowa B confidence and teams in the upper brackets fear. They’re the only team in the D bracket that has taken a ballot off a team from A, even if it was a B team that got promoted. Those are a lot of positive attributes for a team that will be staring down a weaker-than-usual A bracket round 1. That, combined with a potential impermissible match against Iowa A round two, could put this team on a hot streak coming off day one.

Overall, I had a lot of fun writing these posts the last two weeks and I want to give a shout-out to Mockspan (linktr.ee/mockspan), who’s spreadsheets I used a lot to reference teams I didn’t know as much about. Thanks for reading and good luck at ORCS!
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MockMadness
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St. Paul ORCS Bracket C and D Analysis: Dark Horses Empty Re: St. Paul ORCS Bracket C and D Analysis: Dark Horses

Wed Mar 06, 2024 8:07 pm
Dinglebingus, I've been appreciating your ORCs analysis. Thanks for the posts

Curious though - I can tell you're a college sports fan - What are your final four picks?

I'm thinking Purdue, UConn, Tennessee, then like Iowa St/Creighton
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Dinglebingus
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Join date : 2022-03-10

St. Paul ORCS Bracket C and D Analysis: Dark Horses Empty Re: St. Paul ORCS Bracket C and D Analysis: Dark Horses

Wed Mar 06, 2024 8:48 pm
MockMadness wrote:Dinglebingus, I've been appreciating your ORCs analysis. Thanks for the posts

Curious though - I can tell you're a college sports fan - What are your final four picks?

I'm thinking Purdue, UConn, Tennessee, then like Iowa St/Creighton

Here in Dinglebingus's house we don't like chalk, and no one actually thinks Purdue will make the final four, so I'll go Indiana State, Illinois , Kansas, Houston. Indiana State will likely be well situated as an 11, and its about time for the MVC's one every 5 years final four run. Illinois is just a vibe pick. Kansas and Houston feel like the most consistent tournament teams over the past few years since I've been really into college ball, and Houston has the best away wins in the country by a mile.
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St. Paul ORCS Bracket C and D Analysis: Dark Horses Empty Re: St. Paul ORCS Bracket C and D Analysis: Dark Horses

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