St. Paul ORCS Retrospective: Year of the B Bracket

Our first week of ORCS is done, and with it, I wanted to review my analysis and what teams I was wrong about, right about, and anything else unusual that happened over the weekend. Since I started with the A bracket last time, this time I’ll review the teams from the D bracket down. Note: despite St. Paul being a 1-2-1, I’ll be referring to “day one” as the first 2 rounds and “day two” as the second two to make some things easier since there are a lot of pairing different between the rounds. Unlike my original analysis, this will be focused on a round-by-round watch of interesting and important rounds, as well as noting which teams would have been mathematically eliminated from contention each round.

Round 1: Bracket D prosecuting A, C prosecuting B.

As pairings were announced opening night inside the Macalester chapel, there was one team that felt they had a divine intervention that night. As the D bracket pairings were announced, Iowa B was paired against Michigan A, one of the least desirable round one matchups for a D bracket team. However, as the final pairing was announced as Minnesota B vs Minnesota A, the rounds were swapped, resulting in Iowa B hitting Minnesota A instead. Not only was this an expected easier round for them, but Iowa and Minnesota have competed against each other more than nearly any other pair of schools this year, with that specific Minnesota team knocking Iowa C out of Des Moines, while Iowa A knocked out Minnesota (formerly A). Iowa B made good use of the swap, narrowly beating Minnesota A with +1, +2 splits and setting themselves up nicely to qualify out of regionals. Minnesota B was less fortunate, but put up a good fight considering the seeding, only dropping to Michigan A by -3 and -9.

The other notable D bracket result was Bethany Lutheran A splitting ballots against Wisconsin A, a result that confirmed, alongside the Minnesota result, some of my initial suspicions about the A bracket, that Wisconsin and Minnesota’s struggles at regionals may extend to ORCS.

For the B/C bracket matches, the results were more interesting. In my initial posts, I highlighted the St. Paul B bracket as being unusually dangerous, but the results in the first round did not reflect this, with 3 teams dropping ballots against the C bracket.

First, we had Iowa A absolutely not follow in the footsteps of their B team, losing both ballots to C bracket team Washington A, either indicating that Washington’s win against UC Berkeley at regionals wasn’t a fluke, or Iowa A’s win against Minnesota and tie against Northwestern was. This put Iowa A squarely at the bottom of the B bracket with effectively no room for error the remainder of the tournament, while placing Washington on a path to a rematch against UC Berkeley.

The next surprising result was the battle of the B teams, with Oregon B duking it out against Northwestern B. This was an important match for Northwestern to win, showing that their regionals performance was a fluke and that they can compete against the best, but they fell short, losing a ballot and tying the other to place them just above Iowa A in the B bracket. Still, this can sometimes be a blessing in disguise, as they still have a one ballot room for error to qualify and will sometimes face far easier opponents due to the tie.

Lastly, we had Portland, a team I had no idea about, winning a ballot against the other B team in the B bracket, Michigan. I had exceptionally little clue about Portland’s strength, but the folks on MAIMD placed them as the only C bracket team in their bubble, and round 1 showed there was a reason for that. Still, a split round 1 can (and in this case did), make life rough for a C bracket team, because it will usually place them against a far better group A team, while two more ballot losses still eliminate them in the majority of scenarios.

One notable thing to highlight here was a -38, -3 split between Carleton A prosecuting Oregon A. while an expected result, the point split being so large is a controversial issue that you’ll notice plagues this ORCS in later rounds.

Round 2: B prosecutes D, A prosecutes C.

With the results from this round, I think its reasonable to say that the cause for first round upsets was the state bias, because in theory, these brackets should be closer together, but there were far fewer upsets.

From the D bracket, we get our first indication that Howard B is possibly the A team that failed to direct bid out of regionals, as they split against a surging Drake team -2, +5. For Drake, this was a bad sign. Going into day 2 as a B bracket team with any losses at all can be devastating, leaving no room for error in rounds where you’ll likely be competing against elite teams. For Howard, this was redemption for their first round (only losing to Northwestern A by -5,-6) and importantly kept them with just 3 losses going into the expected easier day 2, keeping them alive.

The other D bracket round of any interest was Minnesota B against Michigan B, which ended with a 0, +10 split in favor of Michigan. Notably, this wasn’t enough to keep Minnesota alive at only .5 wins, but it did put Michigan on the ropes with a 2.5 win day one, meaning they needed to go perfect in their last two rounds to have any chance of qualification.

For A bracket teams, there were only two upsets, but by lower margins than before. Wisconsin is our repeat offender here, splitting ballots against Cornell A. This loss put Wisconsin on the ropes, as 2-2 is very much not a record you want to have going into day two as an A bracket team, but it did keep them alive.

The other match here also features a repeat offender, but this time in a positive way. Portland A split with Michigan B in round one, and had a slightly worse round in round 2, tying a single ballot against Michigan A. Interestingly, the other judge very much disagreed with the tie, scoring Michigan A +17. This round barely kept Portland in the tournament, with no room for error the remainder of the way, but notably their tied ballot will make later round likely have easier opponents.

Unfortunately, for some teams, this was the end of the road. When a team has more than 3 losses, I consider them officially eliminated from ORCS. Goodbye High Point A, Wake Forest A, Mizzou A, Carleton A, Minnesota B. 19 teams remain. Best positioned dark horses: Iowa B, Portland A, Washington A, Oregon B.

Round 3: Intra-bracket brawling.

I don’t know about anyone else, but round 3 is my favorite ORCS round. With two rounds out of the way, teams generally know where they’re positioned. Eliminated teams get to compete for the honor of being better than teams they should be similar to, and some of the best teams are duking it out for the few ORCS bids.

In the D bracket, we started with a split between Bethany Lutheran A and Minnesota B. While Bethany was technically alive with a 1-3 record prior to this round, Minnesota was not. After splitting ballots, Bethany became the first victim of the most powerful opponent in mock trial—a team that knows they can’t qualify anymore.

Our other important D bracket matchup featured Iowa B prosecuting Howard B, a b-team recreation of the last time either of these programs made the national final round. Here, Howard proved their split with Drake and close round against Northwestern wasn’t a fluke, overcoming the state bias in this case with an impressive +6, +22 round, eliminating Iowa B from contention after their strong start. Still, with a 3-3 record, even going 2-0 in their final round won’t guarantee Howard a bid—they need other things to go right in other brackets too.

Our middle-ranked round in group C featured Portland A prosecuting Cornell A, two teams on the ropes. Cornell, at 1-3, needs to win out and then get lucky to qualify, while Portland, at 1.5 wins, also likely needs to win out but has a much better chance of qualifying if they do. Unfortunately to Portland, they’re the first victim of some of the more absurd judging splits I highlighted earlier, going splitting the ballot despite a +25 point differential (+27, -2). This split eliminates both from qualification.

Our other notable matchup in C was Oregon B prosecuting Washington A. Here, Washington A’s 2-2 record stands out—they could tie or drop a ballot and still have their hopes alive. Oregon B, on the other hand, was in the same position as their west coast friends Portland. And like Portland, they split the ballot, but in a much closer round of +4,-2 in favor of Oregon. With this result, the only C/D bracket teams alive were Washington and Howard, both of whom could only reach a risky record of 5-3.

With every team in B bracket alive prior to this round, every round was exciting, so we’ll start at the top with Macalester A (4-0) prosecuting Oregon A (4-0). The dominant start by these teams reflects both poorly and positively on my initial analysis. I called Macalester “the team likely most disappointed by their regionals performance” in my initial post, and by this point in the tournament its clear their performance there was a fluke. On the other hand, I hyped up Oregon based on their performance at CUBAIT. In this round, they split ballots +14, -9 in favor of Macalester, which is another strange split, but is likely indicative of stylistic differences between the midwest and west coast. At 5-1, both teams are in dangerous territory going into the final round. They NEED to win at least one ballot off their final team, likely a highly ranked A bracket team.

Our middle-ranked B bracket match featured Michigan B (2.5-1.5) prosecuting Drake A (3-1). In my initial writeup, I highlighted Drake as the team to watch, a highlight endorsed by MAIMD in their analysis. And finally, here was the time to prove why. Prove it they did, with a +7, +1 split to eliminate Michigan’s B team, placing Drake up with Macalester and Oregon at 5-1 going into the final round.
Our final B bracket round featured Northwestern B (2.5-1.5) prosecuting Iowa A (2-2). Now, I would be lying if I said that I wasn’t surprised to see these two teams with these records going into the harder rounds. Iowa was a team I highlighted as having an unusually strong regionals performance, while Northwestern is, well, Northwestern, which anyone who competes in the Midwest understands the importance of. Here, we had an incredibly close round, but ultimately Iowa A defense was able to rally to a +1, +3 win to keep their nationals hopes alive, ending the hope of the second B team in the B bracket.

Finally, we have the A bracket, which still contained 3 undefeated teams and 3 teams with various degrees of nationals hope alive.

First is Fordham A (4-0) prosecuting UC Berkeley A (4-0). A matchup of two coastal frequent nationals competitors that I have no clue about, the east coast was able to impressively rout the Golden Bears in +3, +6 result, placing them at 6-0, the top of the tournament, and being our first team to guarantee a spot at nationals (sometimes 6-2 teams are left out, but with their CS already being so high I don’t think that was possible here and frankly I don’t want to do the math to ensure it)

Next was Northwestern A (4-0) prosecuting Michigan A (3.5, 0.5). Two absolute Midwest juggernauts, and the two teams MAIMD predicted as first-in competitors. Here, Michigan showed none of the weakness that caused them to lose at ORCS, knocking both ballots off Northwestern in +6, +5 splits to bring them to 5.5 wins, likely locking nationals, but still leaving lots of room for disappointment in closing ceremonies if they dropped two ballots on Sunday.

Our final round of the A bracket featured Minnesota A (2,2) prosecuting Wisconsin A (2,2), Two teams that were highlighted as interesting cases in my original post, it appeared that these frequent contenders were unable to solve their regionals troubles, but both have a chance for a last-minute rally to nationals after weaker early rounds. Here, in what is becoming a pattern for Wisconsin at this tournament, they split ballots, leaving both teams at 3-3 with little hope for nationals even with a 2-0 on Sunday.

New teams eliminated: Iowa B, Bethany Lutheran A, Portland A, Oregon B, Cornell A, Northwestern B, Michigan B. 12 teams remain.

Round 4: A vs B, C vs D.

Going into round 4, there was one 6-0 team, one 5.5-0.5 team, three 5-1 teams, three 4-2 teams, and four 3-3 teams. Given that six teams were already over 5 wins, it appeared unlikely that 5-3 could qualify you for nationals. And spoiler alert, it didn’t, so in the interest of space I’m scratching off our 3-3 teams ahead of time. Goodbye Howard A, Washington A, Minnesota A, Wisconsin A. Of these, Howard A managed to complete the comeback story and finish 5-3 with a 2-0 win over Oregon B, Washington A failed tom complete the Iowa sweep, tying a single ballot against Iowa B and finishing 4.5-3.5, Wisconsin A did manage to complete the split sweep, once again splitting ballots, this time against Northwestern B, to finish 4-4. Finally, Minnesota’s round was important for final placings of other teams, so you’ll need to wait on the result for that.

In my initial review of this ORCS, I highlighted the B bracket as being particularly dangerous. So far at this tournament, they didn’t live up to the hype, with a worse record against both C and D bracket teams. But here’s their chance to prove otherwise. Here, despite 4 teams from the brackets being effectively eliminated, because of side constraints, 5 matches between A and B bracket had direct implications on nationals qualifications.

We’ll start with the most surprising. University of Michigan A (5.5-2.5) prosecuting Oregon A (5-1). I said in the previous round that Oregon A was one of the teams I predicted most correctly, and staring them in the face was the reason why. Oregon A’s high praise on my initial post was because of their 2-0 sweep of Michigan at CUBAIT, and here was a rematch that would lock them for their first nationals appearance in 8 years or send them on a long flight home. For Michigan, a 5.5 win total would leave them sweating at closing ceremonies, while anything but a 2-0 would do the same for Oregon. Here, Oregon 2-0ed them to complete the sweep of Michigan A and send them to nationals with a comfortable 7-1 record. For Michigan, they needed to rely on the results of the rest of the rounds.

The second important round featured the other, already eliminated Michigan B (2.5, 3.5) team defending against UC Berkeley (4-2). An uneven matchup created by the side constrained nature of the final round. While UC Berkeley was fighting for a nationals bid, Michigan was fighting for their dignity. And more importantly, their A team, who, as just discussed, was sitting dangerously at 5.5 wins. Rolling over and letting UC Berkeley win the ballots could be the difference between 0 and 1 Michigan team at nationals—and it was. With Michigan splitting ballots +12, -7, they managed to send the Golden Bears packing with a 5-3 overall record.

Next, Macalester A (5-1) prosecuted Fordham A (6-0). A rather unlucky matchup for a final round, Mac needed at least one ballot to feel comfortable. They got both, but not by much, with a +1,+2 split that I’m sure sent them into closing ceremonies terrified.

The next matchup featured a regionals rematch between Drake A (5-1) prosecuting Northwestern A (4-2), a side reversed version of Drake only 0-2 loss in months. I can’t say whether it’s the state bias at work or Drake improving over the past 3 weeks, but they got the last laugh, splitting ballots and placing themselves at 6-2 and Northwestern at 5-3, effectively eliminating them from nationals for the first time in a long time.

Our final round is one that looks awfully familiar for anyone who managed to read all 10 pages of this analysis that I spent far too much time writing. Iowa A (4-2) prosecuting Minnesota A (3-3). A direct rematch of the first round upset featuring Iowa B over Minnesota in an incredibly close round (3 point differential). Now, Minnesota is the only thing standing in the way of Iowa A from completing a reverse sweep and going from 0-2 to 6-2 and a nationals bid. With this being the 8th meeting of these programs across four tournaments, they’re undoubtedly familiar with each other’s styles. In invitational season, Minnesota took a strong lead of 6-2 in the series, but in competitive season, Iowa has been striking back, bringing the series to 6-8, still slightly in favor of Minnesota. But here, in Minnesota territory, Iowa took the most important win 2-0, tying the year-long series and qualifying to nationals for the first time in 3 years.

That concludes my round-by-round review of the St. Paul ORCS. I think my initial declaration that this regionals featured one of the most dangerous B brackets in the country more than proved itself, with 4 teams qualifying and an incredible 9-3 record against the A bracket. It’s also a statement by the often overlooked teams of the Midwest, with historical programs like Iowa and Drake eliminating Northwestern to qualify instead.  

Eliminated this round: Northwestern A, UC Berkeley A

Congratulations to Macalester A, Oregon A, Fordham Lincoln Center A, Drake A, Iowa A, and Michigan A.

Thank you, Dinglebingus.

I really appreciate this kind of tournament retrospective, especially from competitors who attended and can give on-the-ground details. Congrats to all teams that made it out; especially the four teams in that beast of a B bracket.