2024 ORCS Analysis

Please share your own thoughts below. This is intended to start a discussion, if you have seen a team and you think we are over or under valuing them let us know! Good luck with ORCS! If you aren't on here, then prove us wrong! If you made our list, then prove us right!
- MockAnalysisIsMyDrug


By The Numbers:
We begin by breaking down these fields by a couple of statistical categories. As usual, we’ve given you the average TPR points and the average rank of the teams in each ORCS. This should give a sense of what the average difficulty of any round might be. We’ve also taken a look at the top 6 teams in each ORCS to see what the difficulty of the top rounds will look like and how much strength will have to be displaced in order for teams to get bids. In addition, we have looked at the average ballots each team won at Regionals this year.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11eCKmYa9xvtIF6b0WI73wfJ3Ksmiwg3UvTmeuBdyglI/edit?usp=sharing

We want to start by saying that no ORCS is easy. ORCS is hard. Everyone who gets a bid should be immensely proud of that bid—wherever it comes from. All of what we are about to say has to do with the relative strength of each ORCS.

Our official ORCS ranking is as follows:
1. New Rochelle
2. Greenville
3. Memphis
4. Los Angeles
5. St. Paul
6. (Tied) Washington DC
6. (Tied) Geneva
8. Cincinnati

The first and most pressing thing to note is the geography issue that has become abundantly clear from these rankings. At some point, AMTA’s Team and Feeder Committee chair, Adam Detsky, is going to lose it and go on a rampage about the position he’s put in year after year. If you follow the subject of ORCS bid allocation—something we unfortunately do rather attentively—you’re familiar with AMTA’s old refrain about the difficulties of balancing tournaments when teams of different strengths are located in different regions and you can’t just smush the country together. Mr. Detsky can’t perfectly balance the ORCS (or even attain the approximation of perfect balance that one gets over Zoom) without forcing dozens of teams to fly across the country.  This is all true, but at some point we have to acknowledge that Mr. Detsky’s impossible task does not simply stem from the geographic locations of the teams. It stems from the fact that year after year he ends up being given three midwestern ORCS, this year St. Paul, Geneva, and Cincinnati. He does not need three Midwestern ORCS. We don’t know if this is a quirk of the host committee’s preferences or simply the result of a lack of additional volunteers in other areas of the country, but it certainly makes Mr. Detsky’s job difficult.

Once upon a time, one could argue that having this many Midwestern ORCS made sense. Way back in the day, the Midwest was the birthplace of mock trial, and it maintained its dominance for many years. Even in recent years, we here at MAIMD explained the decision to have lots of Midwestern ORCS by arguing that, while the Midwest often produced less power on the nationals stage, it tended to overproduce ORCS level teams. But not anymore. The Midwestern ORCS this year are overwhelmingly the ones that teams are having to be shipped into, both by having east and west coast regionals feed into Midwestern ORCS and through the open bid list. There simply are not enough ORCS level teams in the midwest to fill the ORCS spots in their geographic area. And there certainly isn’t enough TPR power to justify the midwest providing ⅜ of the field at NCT. That’s been true for a couple years now, and we are seeing it at its worst this year.

The result is that, even with St. Paul pulling in teams from the pacific Northwest (which geographically is rather bizarre) and taking in a lion’s share of the open bids, even with Geneva pulling in teams from the Rocky Mountains and all across New York State, and even with Cincinnati pulling in its power teams from the Eastern Seaboard, all of the Midwestern ORCS are in the bottom half of our rankings.

To illustrate how easy it would be to resolve this issue if there were simply another east coast host site, we took the liberty of creating a mockup of an extra ORCS just pulled from the teams that would more naturally attend an east coast ORCS but are currently attending an ORCS in the middle of the country: Geneva, Cincinnati, St. Paul, Memphis. There were enough teams to create an entire extra coast ORCS just out of this pool. We have affectionately dubbed it the “Santa Ivo ORCS”. That ORCS field can be seen on the second sheet of the linked spreadsheet above. The shocking thing is, if you look at the summary statistics down at the bottom of the page this Santa Ivo ORCS would be middle of the pack in terms of the fields AMTA has created.

What this tells us is that there is enough power on the east coast to support an additional site there. And there aren’t enough ORCS teams in the Midwest that they need the number of ORCS sites they have, because if you just took the teams that logically feed in from the midwest, they leave a whole ORCS worth of spots open (and that’s even assuming we keep shipping in teams from the West Coast).

Now, of course, the Santa Ivo ORCS is drawn from all down the eastern seaboard (from Boston to Georgia), but once there is an extra east coast ORCS one could reshuffle teams among the east coast ORCS a bit. For example, if AMTA were to bring back the old ORCS sites in Lancaster or Princeton, most of the northern teams from our Santa Ivo ORCS could be sent there. Some of the northern teams that are currently being sent to Washington could be sent to the new Lancatser/Princeton ORCS. This frees up space for teams from Virginia and North Carolina to go to DC (which is closer to many of them than Greenville). Then the southern teams from our Santa Ivo ORCS could go to Greenville. Overall, having more spots on the East Coast would mean that power could be more artfully distributed so that the hellscapes that are New Rochelle and Greenville could be busted up a bit. Meanwhile the Midwest could consolidate into the two ORCS it really has the power for. But instead of giving Mr. Detsky an extra site in the east, the current site allocation keeps forcing him to tell 24+ teams to drive or fly substantially west every single year.

So, the moral of the story is that if you want to save 24+ teams from expensive travel and make the Greenville and New Rochelle ORCS less hellish next year, volunteer to host an extra ORCS on the east coast and beg the host committee to swap you in for one of the Midwestern sites.

But let’s put problems with ORCS allocation aside for a moment and take a look at what AMTA gave us instead. Our two most difficult ORCS have very different patterns that make them challenging. Greenville is about stamina. While the top of the Greenville field is no joke, it’s really the lower brackets that make it scary. Out of all the ORCS, Greenville has the hardest B bracket, C bracket, and D bracket. So, teams attempting to break from Greenville will need to bring their game face in every single round. New Rochelle, on the other hand, has the most difficult A bracket and then a sudden drop off in the D bracket. What this means is that teams going to New Rochelle, ought to pick up some ballots in their weak rounds, but should expect a killer time of it whenever they have to play the top competition.

DC, while it is ranked pretty low on our list, based on past performance, may be shaping up to be harder than it looks based on TPR. Teams at DC earned significantly more ballots than you would expect based on their average numbers, so DC clocks in just behind New Rochelle on that difficulty metric. St. Paul, on the other hand, may be even weaker than its TPR averages would indicate. Because AMTA decided to allocate a huge number of open bids to St. Paul, the average number of Regional ballots earned by teams going there is particularly low. We expect to see a number of teams there that are underperforming based on their past history.

Finally, we want to note that, as usual, AMTA has guaranteed a Nationals field that is slightly shaken up from last year. The New Rochelle ORCS has eight teams returning from Nationals, so at least two teams will be going home from there without defending their NCT status. Memphis, which has seven NCT returning teams, will be sending at least one home disappointed. Los Angeles, Greenville, and DC, on the other hand, have been allocated fewer NCT returners than bids, so those fields are guaranteed to graduate new teams to Nationals.

Now, on to the individual fields:

Memphis: ‘Home of the Piggly Wiggly’ (MAIMD Ranking #3)
-3 teams in top 25, 6 teams in top 50, 10 teams in top 100
-7 NCT Returners

First In:
Georgia A
Rhodes A

Bubble:
Texas A
OSU A
Miami A
Patrick Henry B
Arkansas A
Georgia B
Baylor A
Oklahoma A

Initial Thoughts:
Memphis, the home of Piggly Wiggly, is a land of many mysteries.  Why is a Bass Pro shop in a giant pyramid?  Why are those ducks in charge of a hotel?  How did Elvis really die?  And who the hell is going to get these bids this weekend?

Let’s start with the favorites.  Because as sure as the line at Rendezvous is going to be long, so too is the near inevitability that Rhodes A will get out of Memphis. Granted, it’s not quite as obvious that they are the top dog here as it once was. Way back in 2021, the fateful Zoom year, we finally saw Rhodes slip.  But they quickly re-established dominance in the 2022 Memphis ORCS, and proved their metal outside of home turf at the 2023 Arlington ORCS.  And this year?  Well, the Norman Regionals wasn’t exactly a bloodbath, but it’s hard to ignore 15-1 across two teams.  With their home field advantage and the friendly judges they always provide who consistently reward the âmeful style that Rhodes has patented for the last four decades, we expect the team led by senior captains Sam Frank and Reese Conners, alongside standout attorney Destiny Baugh, to still stake claim to a trophy.

Next on our First In list are the bulldogs of Georgia. Bryan Walker and his teammates, like Memphis hero Ja Morant, take a “shooters shoot” mentality to mock trial. They take presentational risks, they cross aggressively, and—when it clicks—you can’t take your eyes off of it. Last year, in Memphis for Nationals, it clicked. UGA was at the top of the bracket in round 4 against eventual second-place finisher UCLA B.  But we’ve also seen highly talented UGA teams take risks that don’t pan out, and fall short of the final 48.  Can Walker and rising star Katie Gilk return to the championship stage?  Or will they fall short of the three-peat like their similarly talented football team?

Memphis, stuck between Tennessee and Arkansas, is also host to a team that we have stuck between Bubble and First In: Texas A. On the one hand, this team was on the podium in Memphis last year.  They’re very talented, with All-American witness Josianne Alwardi and All-National junior attorney Anu Pillai. A 7-1 record at Boston Tea Party against reputable programs was a great start to the season. But, on the other hand, 3-6 against comparable programs (now stacked) at GCF, and a failure to sweep either Baylor A or Baylor B at Regionals, leaves us with pause. This team has the horses to saddle up and ride with anyone.  But they’re young this year. And their track record of success is still short.  We think they’ll leave with a trophy, but let’s see.

Beyond the top 3, the mysteries really begin. Because there are at least four bubble teams facing difficult stacking decisions which could transform this ORCS site from cakewalk to death trap. For example, the Buckeyes bid comes by way of the B team, after a shocking 3-5 performance by their A team against a brutal 23.5 CS schedule in Dayton. But that B team bid comes via the open bid list. Will the B team with All-Region standout Prisha Patel pop up?  Or is it the A team with Jonathan Hubbard and Michael Ragnone that will be Walking in Memphis?

Miami faces an even more difficult quandary. After missing Nationals last year for the first time since before their current competitors were even born, their A team came skidding to a 4-4 halt at Regionals.  This just in: the red wagon is off the track. Thankfully, their B team saved the program bid with an impressive split against Chicago A. Will longtime coaches Neal Schuett and Ben Sandlin send the Daniel Molica-led B team? Or the Kathryn Morris-led A team?

Patrick Henry B and Arkansas A are strangely the same, and totally opposite in our analysis.   Patrick Henry has the dilemma of getting a second bid off of the open bid list, after their B and C squads posted near-identical records (5 wins, 19 CS, 68.5/69 OCS, +38/+45 PD).  Arkansas’s bid comes from the B team, who managed a 6-2 record even with a CIC penalty, after their A suffered devastating losses to TCU and Austin College B.  While the rosters for each is a total mystery, we feel strong on Patrick Henry B.  They’ve managed to get their second team through to Nationals three straight years, including in similar roster-ambiguous scenarios.  Arkansas, on the other hand, will have to prove to the world that they’re not just a one hit wonder from 2023.

To round it out, how about a few Beale street deep cuts? Like the talented Georgia B team, featuring junior Abby Wright. Or the Oklahoma Sooners, a steady-rising program with two teams advancing to ORCS for the first time behind the leadership of program president and leading award winner Maria Buscemi. And if the uncertainty of the bubble teams discussed above ends with less talent and more disorder in Memphis than TPR may suggest, we have to dive in even deeper. So why not Texas B? An uber talented team comprised mostly of wide eyed freshmen and a few sophomores. Why not SMU A and Kansas A? Two teams each just one year removed from 5-3 heartbreak at ORCS. Or, Auburn A? A post-COVID regular at ORCS that posted an impressive 7-1 at Regionals, including 3-1 against rivals Alabama A and UGA B.  As Dillard proved in 2022, and Texas A&M in 2019, all things are possible in Memphis.

Because Memphis is a strange land. And whether your favorite team experiences the thrill of victory, or the devastation of defeat; all can be happy, all trophies can be reverently celebrated, all tears can be gently wiped away and frowns turned upside down, at the most critical Memphis national landmark: Gus’s Fried Chicken. Closings end around 3, we’ll meet you there.

Team to Watch: Baylor A
Last year the Baylor Bears turned a heads when they received the first bid out of the Arlington ORCS, leaving with a better record than Tufts, Texas, Emory, and even the ever-favorite of the southwestern judging pool, Rhodes. It seemed like the bears were on a breakthrough roller coaster that only went up—until Baylor A finished up their NCT breakthrough with an underwhelming 3-9 record. So what have they been up to since? Good news to all our Baylor fans in the audience—pretty much just winning. The Bears have been on the podium at nearly every single invitational they've been to this year. 1st place at TCU, 2nd place at their own competition, 3rd place at Rice, etc. etc. Their worst record was taking first honorable mention at Tulane, which was still a 7 out of 12 ballot winning record. Granted, Battle at the Bayou and the Rice Bowl are a touch lower on the competitive rankings than GAMTI or GCF,  but there’s a lot to be said for consistency. Baylor A really haven't had a bad day since the drive home from Memphis. As far as we can tell, that’s a trend that continues outside of invite season. At Regionals this year Baylor took 6 ballots. That record was the result of no sweeps, but two splits to both UT Austin A and Texas A&M B. Again, not exactly superstar results, but being unsweepable is a virtue of its own, especially going into ORCS. So who exactly is on the Memphis redemption squad? We know they’ll be led by President of Baylor Mock, Phill Ackermann—a witness who kicked off his spring season with a double award at Battle of the Bayou and an All-Regional witness award. The Bears also field standout attorney Kristen Stanciu who received the only 20-rank attorney award at the Waco Regional. If Baylor is going into the home of Blues, Soul, and Rock and Roll looking to sing the song of redemption, then those two are undoubtedly going to make up the backbone of that chorus. We’ll have our eyes on Baylor this weekend. They’ve successfully turned their team around to a much higher level than where recent memory might have placed them, to the point where no one can breathe easy at the idea of facing them. Is that a phase, or a transition? It’ll come down to what happens in Memphis. They didn’t have much luck last year in this city—are they going to change that this weekend?

Cincinnati: ‘Easy Peasy Lemon Cinci’ (MAIMD Ranking #8.)
-2 teams in top 25, 5 teams in top 50, 12 teams in top 100
-6 NCT Returners

First In:
Hillsdale A

Bubble:
Georgetown A
Juniata A
Hillsdale B
Dickinson A
Tennessee Chattanooga A
Penn State A
Pittsburgh A
Georgetown B
Dartmouth A
Cincinnati A

Initial Thoughts:
ORCS is not easy. We say it every year at the start of these writeups, and that’s because no matter what geographically absurd assignment AMTA rolls out, it’s always true. But if there were any argument that ORCS was easy, it would be the 2024 ORCS in Cincinnati Ohio. By almost every metric we have, it’s the easiest ORCS and in most cases it isn’t even close. Number of top 25 teams? They have 2. Some other ORCS have 5. Number of unranked teams? They have 5. Some have 0. If we were giving out superlatives, Cincinnati would also be able to boast being the winner of Lowest Average TPR, Easiest A bracket, and Easiest D bracket. Facts are facts, this ORCS stands out from the rest by just having less power than normal. Granted, some of this was unintentional. Powerhouses Ohio State A and Vanderbilt A were both initially supposed to bid into Cincinnati before their unfortunate demise in battle at the Dayton Regionals. The result? There is a significant lack of power here—and some real question marks about our biggest power players.

So let’s start at the top, Hillsdale A and Georgetown A share a somewhat similar story. Both went to NCT in 2022 and didn’t place. Both returned in 2023 looking for redemption and had breakout years for their programs placing 2nd and 3rd respectively on the Memphis podium. And most importantly for what to look out for in Cincinnati, both come back this year looking to prove that last year’s success wasn’t a fluke. In terms of differences, there’s a notable few. For one, we have a bit more faith in Hillsdale to replicate their success. They placed 5th at GCF and were undefeated at Regionals sweeping fellow A-bracket team Cincinnati A. They’re our one and only first-in here, and we believe will sail right through to Chicago. Georgetown on the other hand hasn’t had as many standout results. Yes, they earned 7.5 wins at regionals but they didn’t hit any high level ORCS or NCT teams in doing so. At GAMTI they finished with a slight losing record (5.5-6.5). Are these good results? Yes. Are these 3rd place at NCT results? No. Are these get to NCT results? Probably. We expect the Bulldogs will likely leave Cincinnati pleased (and not just because of the lip-smacking cuisine offered by Skyline Chili).

Following them on the bubble are two teams whose TPR quite frankly doesn’t reflect where they’re currently at. Dickinson had a breakout year in 2022 placing 7th which is why their TPR is so high. But last year, they went 4-4 at ORCS and failed to repeat that feat. Most of the time, that puts you in the B bracket . While we still think Red Devils have a shot to go back to NCT this year (especially in a field like this), a team that went 4-4 at ORCS last year should not be seeded as the third most competitive team in an ORCS field. They’re followed by Juniata who has snuck into the NCT field by the skin of their teeth the past two years, being one of the only teams in the Nation to make NCT with less than six wins (twice!) While their NCT results are a touch more promising—they do boast an honorable mention from 2022’s Lancaster NCT—they haven’t done a whole lot to suggest that their past successes are repeatable without luck on their side. Rounding out the A bracket are NCT returners Cincinnati and UTC—typical bubble teams. They’re good. They can get to NCT. They have the talent, they have the coaching, they have the history of success. But they don’t historically do all that amazing when they get to Nationals, which is why they fall towards the bottom of this bracket.

Moving on down to the B bracket we actually have a team that might be more dangerous that half the A bracket, Hillsdale B. The Charger’s B team followed their A on to the National Championship Tournament out of last year’s much-tougher Geneva ORCS, and while because of the ever-changing nature of B team makeups we don’t know quite what we can expect in terms of roster here, we do expect we can count on Hillsdale still being deep this season. We would not be surprised to see Hillsdale return two teams once again. Similarly, Dartmouth A and Penn State A always border the cusp of getting to NCT and in an ORCS like this one, we think with a bit of luck and a lot of elbow grease, both could push past some of the A bracket teams and make it through. See our Team To Watch for the next B bracket squad, South Carolina B. And that leaves Wesleyan and Pittsburgh who both have the ability to take ballots off top teams but are in weaker years then they’ve been in the past few years.

What really makes this ORCS less challenging than the others is the C and D brackets. At every other ORCS, there are teams in the C or D brackets that are as scary if not scarier than B or low A bracket teams. Harvard B, Stanford B, Yale B, Alabama—to name a few. With all due respect to Cincinnati’s C and D bracket teams, none of them have that same degree of historic success or current success to match that. The only team that comes close is Georgetown B who earned a bid to Nationals in 2022 and went 7-1 at regionals this year. But that 7-1 record came at a CS of 10.5 a history of not even attending ORCS the year prior. Other than them, you have 5 teams who have 0 TPR points, and a lot of teams who haven’t broke through to NCT in a while, if ever. We are expecting a lot of 4-0 teams in the A and B bracket day 1, which means this Cincinnati will really be decided day 2 (or god forbid, Day 3 if Leckrone intends to host one of his weird 1-2-1s again). We would not be surprised to see a 6-2 team not make it from this ORCS. Buyer beware! Cincinnati may be the ‘easy ORCS,’ but there’s more room for upset in easy peasy lemon Cinci than one might think at first glance.

Team to Watch: South Carolina B
When it comes to South Carolina’s regional results, every head must bow and every tongue must confess, because something changed on Sunday, February 25th. Their B team got the ONLY earned bid for South Carolina, finishing with 7 wins and one loss. As far as we can see, South Carolina B has never (and we mean NEVER!) finished Regionals above their A team. Even take a look at their recent history. 2020: (A) 7-1, (B) 4.5; 2021: (A) 7-1 (B) 6-2; 2022: (A) 6-2 (B) 6-2; 2023: (A) 6.5 (B) 5-3. While we would absolutely love to say that this is emblematic of a new and brighter future for South Carolina, that they have finally escaped the plague of bad luck that had besmirched their once promising Nationals streak—in truth we have to say we aren't so sure. The same team that just plowed through the Spartanburg Regionals had a completely flipped record not 6 weeks ago in Atlanta. Albeit, the Ramblin Wreck field was significantly more difficult than Regionals, but in past years, South Carolina B has performed far better at Wreck and far worse at Regionals. Something must have changed. Call it little brother syndrome, a shift in program dynamics, or sheer luck, South Carolina B made a jump from Ramblin Wreck to Regionals that shattered the status quo in Gamecock Country. The question is now what happens for step three of that trajectory—more specifically, will it be enough at ORCS?

Now to talk about South Carolina B entering the grand state of Ohio, we HIGHLY encourage you to read our Initial Thoughts. We ask this not because we request you marvel at the whimsical writing of our other authors, but because to take a look at what’s next for South Carolina B, you need to understand that Cincinnati is not like the other ORCS. Statistically, Cincinnati has an easier A and B bracket than most ORCS, which is a breath of fresh air compared to what South Carolina B has historically gone through, (i.e. the Atlanta Bloodbath of ‘22 and the Greenville Masacre of ‘23). Obviously an A bracket round against Hillsdale A and a B bracket round against Penn State A is no walk in the park, but South Carolina could avoid that caliber of team entirely and slide through the Cincinnati field like a hot knife through a pat of butter. To see the gears that make up that machine, let's take a deeper look at Gamecock B’s roster. At the helm is their double sided captain, Maeve Smith. While not having the same decorative resumes as the Mckenna Bright’s of the world, Smith has steered this team in a direction that has flipped their aforementioned blunder at Ramblin Wreck. Backing up Smith is an arsenal of witnesses that DO have the resumes that rivals some of South Carolina’s A team. All Region witness Brandon Badinski, All Region witness Zierin Thomas, and 17 rank Wreck Outstanding Witness Brandon Lynch sum up to a lot of hardware in a witness bench—meaning you can’t expect any weak links when the Gamecocks go to testify. But what makes this B team so dangerous, isn’t the people on their team and it isn’t the ORCS they are going to, it’s the standard they have broken. By our count, they are now the highest performing B team that South Carolina has ever seen at Regionals. That fact alone, makes them a force to be (W)reckoned with.

Geneva: ‘Geneva?! I Hardly know ‘er’ (MAIMD Ranking #6)
- 1 team in top 25, 7 teams in top 50, 11 teams in top 100
- 6 NCT Returners

First In:
Chicago A

Bubble:
Notre Dame A
WashU St. Louis A
Indiana A
Chicago B
NYU B
Illinois A
Case Western A
Michigan State A
WashU St. Louis B



Initial Thoughts:
The reason why Geneva’s ORCS looks so much harder than its sister Cincinnati is that while Geneva is jam-packed with talent, almost all that jam is fresh. It might be surprising to most of our readers, who have experience with these teams only for the past two or three competitive seasons, but in 2020 or 2019, this ORCS would have been unquestionably on the lighter side. Nearly every program on this bubble reached the peaks they’re at now over the past couple of seasons, and while that isn’t an indicator things will take a turn for them in Geneva, it is likely an explanation for why the folks over at the American Mock Trial Association Tournament Assignment Committee felt comfortable packing this many sardines in a can. We don’t know the exact methodology for ORCS allocation—that’s AMTA’s secret sauce—but we do know that beyond just considering TPR, AMTA also makes a conscious effort to consider how established a program is when they’re doing allocation. The logic here, at least as we understand it, is the best analytical predictor of whether or not a team gets a NCT bid isn’t how high they placed at the last Nationals, but how many of the past Nationals they’d managed to bid to. That’s why programs like Miami or Rhodes, who haven’t exactly been making sparks fly at NCT lately, get allocated like they’re returning from the podium.

Opinions on that strategy aside, that look behind the curtain lends a whole lot of perspective on Geneva. AMTA is figuring that some of these recent up-and-comers are a blip, not a permanent NCT attendee, and figuring that a couple of these teams this year are weak enough to make the ORCS more even to Cincinnati or St. Paul than it might look on paper. Is AMTA’s assumption true? The proof will be in the pudding—or rather, the tab summary. All of Geneva’s cream of the crop are certainly in rebuilding years. Just look at our tippy-top of the Bubble, WashU St. Louis, Notre Dame, Chicago B and Indiana. Don’t get us wrong, WashU’s Bears have had a great invitational season so far. But no team—even one made up of double threats like Elijah Wiseman and Sarah Rosen—can take the hit of losing Zach Stern, Lucy Demsky, and longtime coach Max Handler in the same year and not start to get just a little bit nervous. If WashU is a great program and not just a team with a great iteration, punching their ticket to Chicago will be step one of showing it. We think this transition of talent might be a greater reason to look to WashU’s B team. While in past years, the Bears have given us a B strong enough to bid (way back in 2022, for one), this team has a lot of fresh faces, even for a B team. We’ll see if they make us certain.

As for the Leprechauns of South Bend? Yes, Charlie Stock is great at mock trial (he asks us to throw that in at least once a writeup). But no man is an island, and no Stock is a program. We’d be lying if we said that the five A team seniors they’ve graduated combined with the notable absence of All-American Nyla White doesn’t give us pause that this team may not have the ‘vita, dulcedo, spes’ to live up to the memory we have of them as a midwestern monster. Chicago B is in the same boat. While they don’t tend to get the attention of Tufts or UCLA as reliable two-bid machines, it’s important to remember that up until quite recently, Chicago B did have a strong and reliable core in program president Stephanie Yu and middle menace Alison Oh. While there’s no doubt newbies like Penelope Stinson and All-Regional Attorney Anderson Lynch are good, they don’t have the core that used to sail Chicago teams through.

Perhaps who we’re most worried about are the Hoosiers of Indiana A, diligently sculpted like an intricate sand castle by [REDACTED] Head Coach Zion Miller to reach NCT glory . . . but perhaps just as endangered by the tides of change as the humble sand castle is by the tides of the ocean. Watching Indiana A in round, they raise by far the most questions of what their future holds. There will be parts they do that are flat-out fantastic—we again want to flag senior Isabelle Arnold’s direct as one of the best we’ve seen for this case—but others that are of a much more middle of the road quality, delivered with the characteristic uncertainty of a program that not-too-long-ago was settling for hoping to attend ORCS. The clock is ticking for Indiana to get that set straight if they want those great performances to even see the NCT stage.

More interestingly, this trend continues for our NCT hopefuls a little further down—those who we’d typically point to as potentially being in the running to snatch a bid. Michigan and Case Western are what we might call ‘Sloppy-Second Spartans’—both have the same mascot (in fact, seemingly a pallet swap of the same drawing), both got a taste of glory at a prior NCT (2022 and 2021, respectively), and both have been chasing that high ever since. Both also got heartbreakingly close last year in Cincinnati, finishing just one ballot away from what would have been a direct bid back to the top 48. Neither team has quite the lineup they possessed when they made that stab at a NCT bid last season—Michigan State graduated nearly their entire A team roster, and Case Western returns only one of their A team statement givers from prior seasons. We don’t think either team is out of the running. Senior superhuman Thailia Blohm is returning to Michigan State A for her senior year, and we don’t think she’s going to give up the shot at the All-American she deserves without a fight (or at least, a very well-performed and emphatic closing argument in favor of it). As for CWRU, expert witness Jay Siva and Popener Aashka Gupta have taken up the legacy of CWRU competitors past in being written up on practically every midwest tab summary. That’s a stark contrast from NYU B, who is going into Geneva as an unknown, and not just because they’re the one big import here. Because of what we imagine is administrative drama—unheard of for NYU, we know—we didn’t see either team from the Bobcats at any invites this fall. That means really all we can tell you here is that this is a team that was good enough to bid directly to NCT last spring—but might not have quite been there last Regionals.

If you notice a ‘Phil the Phoenix’-sized elephant in the room for this writeup, it’s the absence of comment on Chicago A. That’s because quite frankly, there’s nothing that really needs to be said. Chicago A got their bid to Chicago two weeks ago back in St. Louis (based off of the benefits that a NCT host program receives), and so while we sure they’ll be great, it really doesn’t matter much if they are. Don’t worry Farnsworth—there’ll be lots of chatter about you and your buddies come April. See ya then.

Team to Watch: Air Force Academy A
As might not be surprising, here at MAIMD there isn’t a lot of trivia we don’t already know. As people who write about mock trial for a hobby, it’s kind of hard to surprise us. So imagine how our jaws dropped when we learned that the team with the most individual non-final round All-Americans in one season (at least, according to what we were able to find) was not Harvard, not Yale, but the 1995 Air Force A team—who, but the way, finished with a whopping five members being named All-Americans. In case you were wondering, that team placed 4th. The skies are a little less clear for Air Force A today. The success of Air Force at ORCS is, in some sense, a referendum on their entire region. You might expect that a program that managed not one, but two teams to perfect records at Regionals would be high up on our predictions list. But because they come from a tiny and geographically isolated region with very little TPR power, their success comes with an asterisk. For example, Air Force managed seven wins last year and then walked away with a disappointing 2-6 finish at ORCS. In fact, Air Force has been remarkably consistent at ORCS over the last few years, always scraping a couple ballots in their easier rounds and never walking away with anything close to a winning record. So Air Force’s dominance at Regionals may speak more to the weakness of the Colorado Springs regional than it does to the strength of the Air Force Program.

Unlike last year, however, when Air Force’s Regionals record came after playing no teams that bid, this year Air Force pulled a solid two ballot win over the third place Colorado College. Air Force B took both against Denver, who finished with an honorable mention. Notably, Colorado College is a team that consistently manages to place mid pack at ORCS and sometimes does pull a winning record, so beating them suggests that Air Force may be ready for a higher level. Similarly, their two spring invites this season, Scarlet and Cream and Frohnmayer have both resulted in winning records for both teams. If you hit them, watch out for their witnesses who have been consistently pulling awards all season. That too may be an asset for this team. In the world of ORCS polished attorneys are a dime a dozen. But witnesses who can shine are often the difference between a narrow win and a narrow loss. All in all, Air Force is a long shot to make the podium at this tournament. But we wouldn’t be shocked if their trajectory started trending in that direction over the next few years—maybe even back to soaring near their previous heights.

Greenville: ‘Diane’s Inferno’ (MAIMD Ranking #2)
-5 teams in top 25, 6 teams in top 50, 13 teams in top 100
-5 NCT Returners

First In:
Florida A

Bubble:
Emory A
Patrick Henry A
Georgia Tech A
Duke A
South Carolina A
Furman A
Alabama A
Georgia Tech B
William and Mary A
Tennessee A
Emory B

Initial Thoughts:
It’s a cold day in hell. As the sun rises over Greenville’s fabled Bell Tower, those forced to congregate in its shadow quiver in fear. The place that served as mock trial heaven for teams just eight years ago is now a horror that will ensure difficult passage to Chicago. Welcome to Diane’s Inferno.

Placing second in our ranking of ORCS difficulty, Greenville has three “gates of hell” to escape. First: there are no easy teams here. With an average rank of 99, Greenville stomps even the most fearsome of ORCS in the average skill category. Second: a top-heavy bracket. Five of six A Bracket teams in Greenville fall within the top 25 in the nation. Third: sleeper hits outside of the top twelve. With C and D brackets containing treacherous landmines such as Alabama, Tennessee, and FIU, even A teams hoping for an easy ride may find themselves with an early ticket to the afterlife.

Circle One - Limbo
Sitting at the top (or bottom?) of hell rests South Carolina A. After failing to bid from Regionals in Tallahassee and securing an open bid, the fate of the cocks remains in limbo. Despite impressive records at Ramblin’ Wreck and Swamp this year, a dropped ballot to Florida International B, a near sweep against Florida A, and a tied ballot with Florida State C (all teams present in Greenville) indicate a potential downturn for UofSC. However, with records above 500 at their last three ORCS and a Nats trip under their belt from 2021, all hope is not lost. Will South Carolina be able to break the pattern of nearly missing Nats this year, or will they be damned to repeat this cycle for eternity?

Circle Two - Lust
In the windy depths of lust sits Alabama A. Ever since tasting their first NCT in 2019, the Crimson Tide have been unable to satiate their desires. Past seasons have come grinding to a halt with ORCS records that got them close, but not quite there. But why place Alabama in lust over limbo? Because, for this majority-senior team, Greenville stands as the final opportunity to break through. Led by all-region duo Daniel Braun and Keyton Kodatt, Bama has its strongest—and most desperate—attempt at the NCT stage yet to come. But in the circle of restlessness, will they be able to brave the storm?

Circle Three - Gluttony
Amongst the icy slush of gluttony falls our first NCT returner, Emory. After bidding all three teams out of Regionals this year, Emory is left with an abundance of talent. While traditional programs may let their C teams fall by the wayside, C-team staples such as all-region double threat Pranat Mamileti and all-region attorney Hank Standaert prove the lEagles’ cup runneth over. With that being said, however, in the world where the Eagles do pull up some of their lower-team talent, they best be careful not to dilute the potency of anchors such as A team captain Fiona Liu or six-time award-winning freshman (yes, you read that correctly) Aiza Kidwai. Will the Eagles be able to keep from drowning in their own excess of talent, or will glutton-fueled bloat drag their teams under the icy water?

Circle Four - Greed
In constant battle, we find our lavish spenders of Duke A and our hoarders of William and Mary A. Geographically opposed foes, these outsiders are hoping to redeem themselves from their missing bids last year. After back-to-back NCT appearances in 2021 and 2022, it appears Duke is on the decline. With a disappointing five-ballot finish at ORCS last year, we worry Duke may have spent its last dollar a little too soon. As for William and Mary, a NCT trip in 2021 followed by two 4-4 ORCS finishes may indicate the opposite problem: the Tribe may not know how to spend their talent. Will these talent-rich programs be able to ascend from the depths to Chicago, or will they fall victim to their earthly desires?

Circle Five - Anger
In the perilous marsh of anger floats Furman A. Although we may have discounted them due to their poor invitational performance in the fall, it appears Furman is back with a vengeance. Coasting to a perfect 8-0 record (with their B team at 7-1 to boot, mind you) in Tallahassee, they seem to have met no obstacle yet. Couple this with a perfect all-region attorney in Emily Clancey and a home-field advantage, and it’s looking like the stars are aligning for Furman to take their ire all the way to Chicago. Will they be able to harness their rage, or will they be too busy seeing red to wade through the wastes?

Circle Six - Heresy
In the flaming tombs of the heretics, we find Patrick Henry A. Admittedly, they’re only in the sixth circle because we think it’s funny to juxtapose Dante’s 13th-century catholicism with the school that prays over every round, but don’t let the jokes fool you. PHC is 7th in the nation. But don’t think A1 isn’t fallible. Having split with William and Mary and UMBC at Regionals, the Patriots aren’t playing like a top ten team. At our hardest ORCS, it’s hard to tell how open of arms this Inferno will welcome them with. Will they be able to rely on their institutional knowledge to return to the NCT stage, or will they find themselves on the wrong side of history?

Circle Seven - Violence
In the boiling blood and fire of violence, we find Florida A. Armed with a 6-6 record from NCT last year, Florida A is set up for another successful slaughter. However, with the only stacked invitational result under the Litigators’ belt being a mediocre 3-4-1 at Ramblin’, it’s hard to tell whether or not Florida still has the power of years past. Given the data we have so far, Florida A sits as a wildcard in A2. Will they be able to ride the violent wave of the past, or will they succumb to the pressures of expectation?

Circle Eight - Fraud
In the concentric discs of fraud, we have two sides of the same coin in Florida B and Florida State A. For Florida B, the story is like Florida A’s, just taken down a few reading levels. 4-7-1 at NCT and a disappointing record of 4-3-1 at their own invitational. As for Florida State, their A team put up an astounding three ballots at Spartanburg. FSU can thank their C team for a 7-1 performance in Tallahassee for that second bid. We have a suspicion FSU A won’t be stealing these bids, so between FSU’s actual B team sitting amongst the titans of Greenville’s B bracket and Florida B looking like a child at the grown-ups table in the A bracket, it seems these two teams are the ones C+D teams are praying to pull round 1. Will these teams exceed our expectations, or will they proudly wear the label we assigned?

Circle Nine - Treachery
Rounding out our Inferno in the frozen lake of treachery sits Tennessee A. But what’s so treacherous about the Volunteers? For that, you’ll have to take a look behind the counsel table at the seeming catalyst of UTK mock: coach Gabby Worshek. Former UofSC alum, Gabby is betraying her Gamecock roots and committing an SEC sin by transferring over. But, don’t let us downplay UTK’s talent at the counsel table either. Led by double threat Jayden Hasting, the Vols have had a breakout season on the southern circuit. After not making ORCS just two years ago, things are looking up on Rocky Top: will they continue this rise to power, or will their fanfare betray them?

In the end, regardless of how you feel about the Inferno, one thing’s for certain: God does not smile upon Greenville, South Carolina.

Per their request, we have not written about Georgia Tech A or Georgia Tech B.

Team to Watch: University of Miami
Let’s face it, folks: for the first time in a long time—maybe ever—the Miami A team that won the most ballots at Regionals is not from some quiet Ohio backwater. No, it’s a team from the Miami that anyone who isn’t knee-deep in mock trial thinks of when someone says Miami—the beaches, the bars, the food, the lights. The University of Miami blazed onto the scene in the fall of 2022 with an appearance at Harvard’s Boston Tea Party. We think it’s quite possible that Harvard accidentally invited the wrong Miami team to the tournament. After all, in the five years leading up to the fall of 2022, University of Miami hadn’t appeared at ORCS—let alone NCT—making them the only team without a TPR at Boston Tea Party. They certainly didn’t announce their presence with a wild run to a trophy, but they did begin to show a glimpse of the emerging powerhouse that they’re growing into in a +11, -30 split with BU. From there, they only built momentum: they finished 5-3 at Regionals and earned an ORCS appearance, where they finished a deceptive 3-5—a record that conceals some really incredible results: a victory over a perennially strong Georgia State, narrow losses to North Carolina and Florida B, and a split that kept Furman A out of the NCT. This year, they’ll be looking to keep moving forward. And early returns seem to indicate that they’re more than capable. Their only dropped ballots at Regionals were to a Furman A squad motivated by revenge, and Courage Cosby added to their awards haul with a perfect 20-rank attorney award. Cosby, All-Regional Attorney Jaylen Sanders, and the rest of the team will be a formidable threat this year at ORCS as they look to prove that they do, in fact, belong—and as they seek to make sure a team called Miami is once again in attendance at Nationals come April.

New Rochelle: ‘Some of you are not allowed back at NCT’ (MAIMD Ranking #1)
-5 teams in top 25, 8 teams in top 50, 12 teams in top 100
- 8 NCT Returners

First In:
Harvard A
Tufts A

Bubble:
Brown A
Boston University A
NYU A
Hamilton A
Harvard B
Tufts B
Columbia A
Fordham Rose Hill A
Penn A
MIT A


Initial Thoughts:
In the words of this ORCS’ late, great, 17th century namesake Newtonius Rochelle, “in 2024 this quote will be an allusion to that St. Paul parody analysis from Impeachments, and also if you listen to my last words I’ll tell you what New Rochelle is gonna be like.” Newtonius died shortly thereafter from a CIC sanction, which back in the day involved poisonous snakes and lava, but his words are eternal.

The A bracket at New Rochelle is hard. Harvard A and Tufts A are both returning seasoned NCT squads with unbelievable talent. And yes, we know Harvard’s had a dicey track record at ORCS in recent years, but Audrey Vanderslice and Jessica Alexander are the best one-two punch in AMTA by a mile and the supporting cast of Rajan, Almonte, and Jones is no slouch either. Tufts, meanwhile, brings with them one of the best witness lineups out there behind Mihir Sharma, Paige Duff, Wesley Jansen, and Seamus Gallagher. The only way you’re beating these teams is if they’re having a bad day and you’re having the best day of your mock career. Your next biggest fear should be BU A: they reliably bid and place at NCT every year and this season seems no different. Behind frontman Max Bearinger and GCF award-winning Attorney Naudia Terry they’ll perform consistently (again), competitively (again), and pack enough punch to likely break through (all the way to 10th place in Memphis…again). Tufts B and NYU A are harder to predict—both had successful Nationals runs last season, but Tufts’ roster only returns four members of that squad and NYU has struggled this year against top competition, with drops to Maryland, Harvard B, and Haverford A: those are results they need to flip to get to Chicago. Expect Ayslin Exum to be the star of the Bobcats’ roster. Brown A is either a powerhouse on the rise or a one-hit wonder after their Nats run last year, and that storyline gets decided right here. Without Michael Chandler’s dynamism, does the Kiara Moon and Alex Lee led lineup have someone ready to bring the energy and Stomp on the competition? We suspect their best bet is attorney Aniyah Nelson, but the answer to that question will likely be the difference for Brown.

The B bracket is the true threat at NewRo. A lot of these teams could be in an A bracket anywhere else, and everyone is in the top 100. Fordham RH had a shock bid here last year and are looking to do it again. Penn in particular we have our eyes on after a +3, T against Maryland A at Hilltop, suggesting this team knows how to tangle with the best of them. And behind Katie Volpert, the double sided star of Rookie Rumble fame (who’s been double-awarding like crazy), we think there’s good odds they can get to Nationals a second time in a row. Hamilton A is always in the mix—in 2022, they even made it out—but our best guess at how they’ll fare in the higher brackets is a split against the Pirates of Seton Hall at Regionals. Columbia is a middle-ORCS team that tends to finish around 4-4 every year, but behind All-National attorney Hermella Getachew and a coaching staff made up of some of AMTA’s most decorated alumni, we wonder whether this is the year the Lions take a big step forward. And it wouldn’t be a New Rochelle write-up without our annual hyping of MIT A—see our Team to Watch for more.

The C and D brackets are a little more pedestrian. As we mentioned in our By the Numbers discussion, New Rochelle has a weaker D bracket, but if there’s one team to be wary of down there it's Bryant A. Bryant bid to ORCS for the first time in program history last month, and we think they’ll outperform their bracket. That’s partially because they do mock trial with a lot of heart, and partially because they’re coached by a UCLA A alumni who knows how to play the ORCS game. And in the C bracket, Harvard B and BU B are both threats to watch out for. Much like the poisonous snakes that attacked Newtonius Rochelle, these two younger siblings of established A teams could strike an unsuspecting Nationals hopeful and end their run before Saturday is even over. Remember, Harvard B was the team that got the Crimson their bid last year, and they’ve already taken ballots off of Tufts B and NYU A this year.

Ultimately, though, the most important thing about New Rochelle is this: it’s the land of upsets. Last year the majority of bids were won by B bracket teams. We think the stage is set for another year of unusual results. Let’s see what happens.

Team to Watch: MIT A
We know, we know; here we are again writing about MIT. If you don’t have an exhaustive memory of our writeups—and really, what are you doing if you don’t—we gave this intrepid squad of STEM school LARP-ers the honor of being our team to watch back in Providence. Turns out? We were right, because they took first place without dropping a ballot (tied one). The fashion of their victory, however, is even more impressive. They finished with 7 1/2 wins and 1/2 a loss with a 19.5 CS, beating Brown (+8, +0) and Wellesley (+3, +4) (both earned direct ORCS bids); they also beat UConn B (+17, 15—who picked up an open bid with their 5-3 record—and Middlebury College (+8, +22). Beating three teams that earned bids is truly impressive, but we want to focus a bit on their defeat of Brown A. Brown A took 10th at Nats last year, and while it is true that they have lost some major pieces of that team (e.g.,TBC semi-finalist, Michael Chandler), they still returned standout members like Kiara Moon, Aniyah Nelson, and All-American Witness, Alex Lee, who have all been racking up awards this year. This team is formidable and we expect that they will do well at ORCS. But MIT’s win here demonstrates that they are taking the next step; that they are able to win against top teams. MIT is the team to watch in New Rochelle, especially coming out of the B bracket. That reliable “oomph” was just what the Beavers needed last season, when a sweep of Harvard B or Fordham Rose Hill would have broken them into the top 48. Aside from some promising spring results, there’s also a lot of talent we know the Beavers have to pull from. Tom Wang might have the most precise and technical knowledge of the Rules of Evidence of anyone on the eastern seaboard right now, and while we haven’t had a chance to see former expert extraordinaire Eric Li in round as an attorney (we have eyes everywhere, but even we have limits), we’re sure his characteristic slow, comprehensible, deliberate pace is still a feature. Everyone keep your fingers crossed for MIT this weekend—because we’re gonna keep writing about ‘em until they finally make it click and break through (and let’s be real, probably even after that point too).

Los Angeles: ‘Do UC what I see?’ (MAIMD Ranking #4)
-3 teams in top 25, 6 teams in top 50, 10 teams in top 100
-5 NCT Returners

First In:
UCLA A

Bubble:
UC Irvine A
UCLA B
UC Santa Barbara A
Southern California A
Stanford A
ASU A
UC Berkeley B
Stanford B

Initial Thoughts:
Welcome to the West Coast Gauntlet (no—not the witness one)! The LA ORCS is probably the most consistent of the ORCS year to year. Whereas for most other ORCS, there’s another ORCS somewhat close by, in Los Angeles next nearest ORCS is almost 2,000 miles away—so the field stays pretty consistent.

Before we get into who is here, we want to mention who isn’t here, because in Los Angeles, at least in AMTA’s eyes, there can only ever be one new thing under the sun. This year, that;s the Seattle Regional, specifically Berkeley A and Oregon. Last year in Santa Monica, these teams caused serious damage with Berkeley A earning 5.5 wins, Oregon B earning 4.5 and Oregon A earning 4. All three have been shipped off to St. Paul which means this season, Los Angeles feels a bit like a horseshoe.

The A bracket here is HARD. By our metrics it’s the second hardest A bracket, with all six teams in the top 40 and three in the top 15. Of course we have our reigning champions UCLA A who showed their dominance once again at regionals going 8-0 and picking up 4 awards, including *deep breath* Drew Ashlock’s 38 rank Attorney award (20 on Bye Bust and 18 on the actual UCLA team), Emma Rose Maloney and Jad Soucar’s 19 rank witness awards and TBC Returner Ria Debnath’s attorney award. With this team having an average of one All-American per competitor (either from the final round or just flat out winning one last year), this team should fly right by and onto Chicago. And if you’re worried about UCLA’s depth, don’t worry because UCLA B also went 8-0 at regionals. This was quite the improvement from their 4-4 performance at Wramblin Wreck but Ashley Yeatts, Dyllan Ballassi, Kole Alfonso and the gang turned it around and are walking into this ORCS having a really good shot at moving on—which is pretty much the best you can say when you’re looking to compete in Los Angeles. USC A has gone 15-1 at the last two LA ORCS and while it’s somewhat hard to compare USC to other teams since they tend to fly elsewhere for invites, we expect them to continue their success. Look out for Alyse Saucedo who’s won All-Regional attorney awards the past three years, but has yet to take home the All-National. Her Rebel-Trojan witness award shows she can witness too so we might be looking at a new west coast double threat. On paper, Irvine A should be a lock to move on. The Anteaters are finishing 4th in their division last year and returning TBC finalist Josiah Jones who has won… 11 AWARDS THIS YEAR. After his double Regional and double GCF awards, we are expecting a double all-national to add to his resume. The problem is that the last time this team competed in LA at UCLASSIC, they earned 2.5 wins. And while they played some amazing teams, they could see those very same teams here. They split with Stanford B who are a C bracket team here. They got swept by UC Santa Barbara A who, speaking of which is our next A bracket team! The Gaucho’s results this winter haven’t been that of a top 30 team but we’re not ready to count them out just yet. They’ve had highs like sweeping Irvine A and lows like going 1.5 wins at Beach Party. Luke Morales and the squad are ready to light up LA. Last, but certainly not least, Stanford A is back this year and ready to prove that last year was a fluke. 7-1 at Beach Party, 6-2 at Wramblin Wreck, 7-1 at Regionals. This team is back and ready for revenge.

Now we mentioned this ORCS is a bit of a horseshoe and that’s because when you take out Berkeley A and the Oregon teams, you’re left with the weakest B and C brackets in the country. Don’t be mistaken, there are some great teams here. Arizona State A goes 4-4 every year and one of these years they’ll get that extra win or two and break through. This could be the year, led by All National Double Threat Linus Ros. See our Team To Watch for why Stanford B might make it out of the C bracket. And one of the most notable teams here is Berkeley B. Last year they shocked Santa Monica by bidding over their A team, but this year, the new B squad failed to bid from Seattle. This is the first year in recent memory that Berkeley has needed to pull a team off the open bid list so we’re not sure exactly who will be competing on behalf of the bears, but their B team who went to Seattle performed really well here at UCLASSIC so we would not be shocked to see them go from open bid to ORCS podium.

The last part of this horseshoe is the end because this D bracket is difficult and unpredictable. Bringing in Colorado Springs and Denver adds some non west coast teams who might have different styles. Even UC Davis not too long ago was a team almost sending two teams to nationals. Now they’re here on the bids of their B and C teams but don’t be fooled, the Aggies are going to put up a fight. Good luck, Los Angeles! Enjoy the sun—we hear Chicago isn’t quite as temperate.

Team to Watch: Stanford B
The 2022-2023 season was affectionately referred to by people on MockConfessions and Impeachments as “The Year of the B Teams”. Tufts B outperformed their A team at Nats. Harvard took a split stack A and B team to the final round after their B team got the bid in New Rochelle. UCLA B received an unexpected 2nd place finish in their Nats division. However one of the strongest cases for last season being defined by the B teams happened during awards at LA ORCS last March. The final battle for bid #6 wasn’t between the powerhouses of Cal A and Stanford A, but rather between their B teams. We are willing to bet Stanford B wasn’t happy with 7th place, and they are probably going to pull out every trick in the book to stop that from happening again. Stanford B is coming in as a C bracket team and that is a DECEPTIVE tier for this squad. They placed 3rd alongside their A at Beach Party, they split Irvine A at regionals a few weeks ago, and they’ve got a C team who earned a bid who can supply members to fill gaps where the team needs. What stabilizes this team is their veterans: Natalie Gomez and notorious rapper Lisa Lu. Natalie approaches openings with the poise and professionalism we saw from the likes of Grant and Seigenthaler. When Lu isn’t busting rhymes, she’s busting experts with a flurry of 702 objections.

This team is strong, and if last year is indicative of anything, they can hold strong through the day 1 A and B bracket rounds. Our main concern is broad appeal. Stanford is known for latching their case theories onto a minute detail from the case and then drilling that detail over and over again in the jury’s head. For some judges, that’s compelling. For others, it isn’t and that is showing in the ballots. Stanford B’s first three rounds at Regionals saw 11-21 point discrepancies between the two judges. Even more concerningly, they split every round they had at UCLASSIC this year which will likely be a similar judge pool to what they will see at ORCS. It feels silly telling you to be on the lookout for a B team whose A team didn’t breakthrough to NCT last year. Here at MAIMD, we are no strangers to silliness. Stanford B is a horse worth betting on. If they can hold strong day 1, we reckon they will be calling in their ticket to Chicago, while their opponents call home to mom.

St. Paul: ‘Melting Pot of Mock Power’ (MAIMD Ranking #5)
-4 teams in top 25, 6 teams in top 50, 11 teams in top 100
-6 NCT Returners

First In:
Northwestern A
Michigan A

Bubble:
Wisconsin Madison A
Cal Berkeley A
Fordham LC A
Macalester A
Minnesota A
Michigan B
Portland A
Oregon A
Drake A
Iowa A


Initial Thoughts:
St. Paul! Oh, St. Paul. Everyone’s favorite winter wonderland. And by everyone, we mean everyone—East Coast and West—because, for the second time and counting, this year St. Paul is loaded up with imports. In a field of 24 teams, 10 are going to be getting some mileage: 5 from Oregon, Washington, and California; 5 from Washington D.C., North Carolina, and New York. So, purchase those plane tickets! Buckle those seatbelts! Make note of where your oxygen mask is located and if the door(s) of your plane are securely bolted down! Because like that Boeing 737, we’re in for a hell of a ride.

First-in we have two powerhouses of the Midwest: Northwestern A and Michigan A. And we know Northwestern will bid, because without them, who else would be at Nats to get 8th, 9th, or 10th? Jokes aside, that’s a record that many teams could only dream of. Northwestern has maintained an impressive Nationals presence for longer than most of us have been doing college lawyer cosplaying: top-10 finishes in 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, and most recently in 2023. And less a razor-slim 2023 defeat to UCLA A, they would have gone 9-3 (CS of 23), putting them tied for second with Georgetown. This year they’re returning their Nationals-level talent, including captains Emily Callahan (with one All American and counting) and Claire Foltz. But silly us—this is a writeup about ORCS, not Nationals. Northwestern will have to wait two weeks to see their name in the latter.

That brings us to our other favorite St. Paul powerhouse. At the start of the season, we described Michigan as an early season W-getter (we’re paraphrasing) and boy oh boy were we right. This year Michigan placed top five at four fall tournaments, and third at GCF. Not to mention last year, they casually placed third at Nats. Coming into Spring 2023, they’ve got the record, they’ve got the returning talent (a second All-American for Gordy, anyone? Maybe some individual laurels for Ms. Kane to boot?), and they’ve clearly got the drive. Should you be scared of the University of Michigan? If you’re at St. Paul, no! Fear and anxiety won’t do anything. Just go ahead and give them your ballots.

Then there’s the bubble, and don’t get too attached, because above we’ve listed 10 teams—less than half of them are likely to get bids. Let’s talk about who that might be. Starting with our West Coast sunshine, competitors in St. Paul will have to deal not only with Michigan and Northwestern defending local titles, but also teams from Washington and Oregon filling out the B and C bracket. The outlier is Cal Berkeley A, who having been dragged from their 60° weather, now fall squarely at the center of the A bracket. This year their A team took second at GAMTI, with their broader program taking second and third at Mocktopia. But as we look to GCF, (which Berkeley won last year), the results look a little bit more grim. This year, competing against top talent, they went 3-9. This is in the same field with our other A bracket teams, where Michigan went 8-4 and Northwestern went 7-5. Granted, the same year they won GCF, Berkeley didn’t survive ORCS, ending with a final score of 5.5-2.5. Could their luck work in the opposite direction? 3-9 at GCF to 8-0 at ORCS? Last year a 5.5-2.5 record put them on the margin of securing a bid, and it puts them on the margin of our bubble today. Other imported West Coast talent includes Oregon A in the B bracket, and Portland A, Oregon B, and University of Washington A filling out the C bracket. These are teams that haven’t seen a bid to Nationals in a while, but with the extra time to prep on the flight over, anything can happen.

We’ll also be seeing performances from our friends in the East, starting with our sole eastern A bracket-er, Fordham Lincoln Center. Fordham is an institutionally strong team. They’re a team capable of cutting through ORCS, landing at Nats, and falling somewhere in the middle. This year they’ve graduated three of their 2023 Nationals talent (including their All American president), but that leaves eight returning members to carry the torch. It hasn’t been a problem in the past, and we hope they’ve been saving, because we’re confident they’ll have to buy another set of plane tickets this April.

Now we’ve talked a lot about the “import teams”—those teams instantly attaining Delta SkyMiles Platinum status from a single trip—but what about our roadtrippers? Macalester is a team that went to Nationals later on an ORCS record here of 5.5 - 2.5. While a well-established team in the circuit, this isn’t a team that has the Nationals clout of the Fordhams, the Northwesterns, or the Berkeleys. At the cusp of the B and A bracket is Minnesota A, Iowa A, and Michigan B. Michigan is obvious: good A team = pretty good B team. We might be (fake) lawyers but we can do the math on that one (“the math” being counting their 7 ballots at Regionals). Separately, Iowa and Minnesota are in a similar situation where they’re solid teams, but don’t necessarily have the recent NCT results to back it up. They haven’t been to Nationals since 2021, both teams going 5-3 at last year’s ORCS. All it takes is one more ballot, and next month they’ll be taking pictures at the weird bean thing in Chicago (will the Bean be out of jail by then?).

That brings us to Wisconsin Madison A. They’re fourth in the A bracket, so why aren’t they higher in the bubble? They’ve been to Nationals the past two years, so why is Macalester A still ranked above them? Dear reader, don’t forget, this is a team that won an honorable mention at Memphis just last year. Except … it’s not. Regular Wisconsin A dropped at the Madison regional, going 4-4, and failed to earn a bid out of Regionals for the second year in a row. Instead it’s a hybridized B team that will be representing them at ORCS; a B team composed largely of freshmen. These are new faces that most people in the circuit probably haven't seen before. But don’t underestimate the Badgers. If Wisconsin is known for two things, it’s fielding a strong B team and highlighting early mock talent. So this year, what might that talent be? As the sun sets on St. Paul closing ceremonies, look for names like All-Region (freshman) captain Lillie Sunby, Iowa-awarded Shala Sunby, and standout (not guilty) defendant Namita Nair. So is Wisconsin deep enough to replicate their NCT success? The question is one for Chicago, but the battle will first have to be fought in St. Paul. God, we love a good underdog story, and UW just keeps finding a way to give it to us.

It won’t be the sleigh ride it was last year, but as competitors in 7/8 ORCS are saying to themselves all around the country right now, “At least it’s not New Rochelle.” St. Paul falls squarely in the middle of the pack—not too hot, not too cold. So do not fret and do not fear! And buy those economy plane tickets before the prices get too high.

Team to Watch: Drake A
The Garden of Eden, a panspermic meteor, or a deep-sea hydrothermal vent—our theologians, historians, and scientists have lots of answers to the question of where life began. But for those of us who spend hundreds of hours each year LARPing as legal professionals and refreshing Mock Trial Confession each day, there’s only one answer: Des Moines, Iowa. In the heart of Des Moines is Drake University, the school where it all started. In the early days Drake was a powerhouse. In 1989 and 1993 they went all the way to the top, winning the National Championship. But AMTA’s Jurassic period is long gone and Drake has struggled to survive in the Cenozoic age. In fact, the Bulldogs haven’t even been to NCT since 2015 when Harvard was making final rounds (hard to imagine these days, we know). But enough about the past, we’re not writing about Drake’s so we can make a similar forecast for the future of Miami Mock Trial. Rather, as our esteemed colleague Professor Dinglebingus pointed out, we’re writing about Drake because they may be one of the most underrated teams in the country. If any year is Drake’s to make it back to Nationals it is this year. They’re coming off a bit of a renaissance after a 5-3 record and 7th place finish in St. Paul last spring. So far this year they’re looking even better. Stacked Drake A has only dropped two ballots this year and those were to our first-in Northwestern A. Drake is exactly the type of team you would expect to do well. They’re stylistically your standard cornfed midwest-mock, but they're just doing it better than their neighbors along I-80. Don’t expect anything super flashy or never before seen from Drake. But that’s not what they’ll need to bid from ORCS. What they need is exactly what they have: a star in the form of All-National double threat Grace Brinker and six other rock-solid members who know how to let her shine. Drake A is precisely the type of team who beats the teams they’re better than and loses to the ones they’re not. That may sound like the most useless piece of analysis we’ve ever published but it really is the key to bidding from ORCS. At a tournament where polish and cleanliness are sometimes everything Drake plays a style of mock that won’t cause them to have a random drop in their D-Bracket match-up. But planning to sweep round 1-3 and losing to an A-Bracket team is a dangerous game to play. 6-2 is not always the guarantee it feels like it ought to be—just ask poor Illinois A. Luckily for Drake, they’ll be at the Island of Misfit Toys (aka the St. Paul ORCS) where at least half the A bracket is filled with teams who are looking weaker than usual. A split in that round 4 or even a sweep could be in the cards for Drake. If there’s any hesitation in this prediction for Drake it’s the fact that they proved it wrong just last year. Rather than winning their lower match-ups and losing to top teams they swept their B group round and then proceeded to split in their A, C, and D rounds. So if recent history is not on our side then what makes us so confident now? Audacity, mainly. This year’s Drake squad is spunkier than they’ve been in years past and they’ve put up undeniable results so far. The path to Nationals is there, it’ll be up to Drake to make sure that life finds a way.

Washington DC: ‘Smithsonian Museum’ (MAIMD Ranking #6)
-2 teams in top 25, 5 teams in top 50, 12 teams in top 100
-5 NCT Returners

First In:
Virginia A
Yale A

Bubble:
Haverford A
Maryland A
American A
Seton Hall A
Howard A
Virginia B
George Washington A
Princeton A


Initial Thoughts:
When looking at the field of this ORCS (the obvious plural of Tolkien’s ORC), the most natural associations brought to mind are the Baroque sculptures of the Bernini family, including the more famous Gianlorenzo and his less famous father Pietro. Perhaps art does imitate life. To be more specific and expound upon this writer’s sleep deprived ramblings, the A bracket is Baroque (no money). Let’s get into it.

One must imagine UVA A as the portrait bust of Scipione Borghese. Carved pupils, jutting out of their niche in a “what did you just say?” pose. You’ll find Ethan Marx and Karen Sun sitting in the car outside the DC federal courtroom with a couple judges in the car, staring at the entrance until it opens. UVA by now has a tried and true NCT tactic: death by a thousand objections. After a +160 PD, undefeated regional curriculum (though with a CS of 14), they’re making it back. Like all classic works of Baroque art, the University of Virginia has a clear style that emphasizes dramatic, exaggerated motion and clear, easily interpreted, detail. One must imagine Yale as Bernini’s David: you catch them in the act of throwing the stone, but their Goliath is missing. Armed with an imported 747 from Koffee?, Yale’s Parker-Noblitt, Levin (who picked up an all-Regional), and Dodd were also undefeated through Washington regionals, so of course they’d come back to the same place and do it again. We’ll come back to talk about these two for our NCT analysis.

Rounding out our A bracket are Maryland, American, and Howard. One must imagine these three as Aeneas, Anchises, and Ascanius. First, we must discuss the son, the hero founder of Rome, who carried his father to safety out of a burning house (that’s Aeneas, for those who haven’t brushed up on their Roman mythology). If there’s one thing we like here at MAIMD, it’s being right - and right we were about Maryland. This coaching staff has 7 All-Americans combined, and when you’re coaching Laniya Davidson, Stephen DeCoste, Lucy Feldmann, and former B captain and All-National Rebecca Scherr, it’s not a hard sell - they’re our last undefeated Regionals team here and they’ll be looking for revenge for last year’s Nationals’ bid larceny. Coming in behind them is their father, American/Anchises. As the fourth team to register this season, they’ve tacked on an additional all-Regional witness in perfect-ranker Aiden McPhillips, and are only looking to repeat their Regionals success. An interesting note here, and why we decided to give them Anchises instead of Aeneas, is the fact that their C team beat them out at regionals by one ballot with only a CS 0.5 lower than the A team. This may be because the two ballots A dropped were to David/Yale (-3, -4), but we can’t deny the C team their laurels either - the one ballot their C dropped was in a +33, -14 split to Lehigh. Any which way, this is a strong program that we expect to do just as well. Finally, we come to Ascanius, the youngest member. As owner of one of the Top 10 mock trial TikTok accounts (we recommend everyone check out College Mock Trial Memes on TikTok), Howard is a force to be reckoned with. Though they missed out on last year’s NCT, it would be hard to forget their 6th place finish and three All-Americans in 2022. Their B team also beat their A at Regionals, but like we said, Howard are like the New York Jets—the second half will be their arena.

The real issue here is that that’s it for the A group. The real sticking point at the Washington ORCS will be the B bracket teams. This is potentially the hardest B bracket group in the nation - and it actually has more NCT returners than the A bracket.

One must imagine GW A, Haverford, and Seton Hall as the Ecstasy of St. Teresa. All three are Nats returners. All three are back at ORCS for a bid. We predicted those Georges, St. Teresa herself as the first in for the Haverford regionals, but they were seventh in, snagging an open bid. But with an all-Regional for witness Jenna Toulan, they’re ready to make the most of those saints’ resurrection. It’s hard not to paint Ben Fligelman as the cherub that pierced Teresa - as anyone who’s seen him collect an award can tell you. Along with John Donovan, Fligelman collected another all-Regional this year to add to that GAMTI collection and oh my god are they ready to take on Washington once again. Haverford returns nearly their entire roster from last year, and with senior-captains Cohen and Donovan at the helm, this team is one of the toughest B draws in the country, 3rd at GAMTI and 1st at Battle in the Bayou proves that their style works wherever they go. For the unfortunate souls of DC, this B group is still not over, we then move to the pirates of Seton Hall, the gilded rays of Teresa’s vision. With a CS of 19.5, it’s not like they coasted through Princeton, but with 6 ballots and a 17 ranker for Sophia Alicea and Krish Chaudhury, they can only rise from here. Rounded out by Princeton A (see below), and B teams from American and Maryland, this B bracket is going to be a bloodbath. C and D groups are what make this ORCS fall towards the lower end of our rankings—but don’t be deceived by the numbers. Despite our comparisons, this ORCS is anything but a pretty picture.


Team to Watch: Princeton A
It’s 2014. Some of AMTA’s current competitors can still count how old they are on their fingers. Kim and Kanye get married this year, the Ice Bucket Challenge is a major cultural phenomenon, Jimmy Fallon starts on The Tonight Show, and Taylor Swift drops 1989 [not Taylor’s version]. Oh, and Princeton Mock Trial is in the National final round, duking it out against a little-known school from Los Angeles (yes, it was UCLA). Coasting on their final round success, Princeton went on to…completely drop off the NCT map. Their 2015 Nats return was lackluster, and the only time they’ve been back since they walked away from Minneapolis with a not-so-successful 3-9 record. Only two years after their final round loss to UCLA was immortalized forever on film, they walked away from ORCS with just two ballots. So why are we writing about them now? Well, members of the jury, it is a tried and true fact that teams with drive are motivated by long slumps. You’ve just got to pay attention to when they’re waking up. And we think Princeton Mock Trial might be waking up. Just take a look at their B and C results. Princeton Mock Trial stacks two equal B teams, and both of these teams snagged bids to ORCS, with 7-1 and 6-2 records out of Princeton . With surefire presentational skill and evidentiary confidence from All-Regionals like Sophie Glaser and Jimmy Fraley ending up on the B team, we know Princeton A has a squad to be feared. And, dear reader, you would not be disappointed: Jacob Santelli is bringing back his conversational, folksy demeanor, joined by talent like All-National Luke McSorley and up-and-coming freshman Sophia Vernon.

Facts are, the past few years haven’t been great for the Tigers. They were a Nats hopeful team at New Rochelle last year, but missed out with a 6-2 record on the CS tiebreak with Tufts B. That stings, maybe more than flubbing completely—Memphis was completely within reach and they just weren’t able to make it there. We think this year might be different for Princeton. Granted, DC is just about the worst place an up and coming team could find itself. The ORCS at the nation’s capital will not be an easy gauntlet to run (no, not that gauntlet). But Princeton’s grit, cleanliness, and drive just might be good enough to claw their way to Chicago.

MockAnalysisIsMyDrug wrote:St. Paul: ‘Melting Pot of Mock Power’ (MAIMD Ranking #5)

Bubble:
Wisconsin Madison A
Cal Berkeley A
Fordham LC A
Macalester A
Minnesota A
Michigan B
Portland A
Oregon A
Drake A
Iowa A


That brings us to Wisconsin Madison A. They’re fourth in the A bracket, so why aren’t they higher in the bubble? They’ve been to Nationals the past two years, so why is Macalester A still ranked above them? Dear reader, don’t forget, this is a team that won an honorable mention at Memphis just last year. Except … it’s not. Regular Wisconsin A dropped at the Madison regional, going 4-4, and failed to earn a bid out of Regionals for the second year in a row. Instead it’s a hybridized B team that will be representing them at ORCS; a B team composed largely of freshmen. These are new faces that most people in the circuit probably haven't seen before. But don’t underestimate the Badgers. If Wisconsin is known for two things, it’s fielding a strong B team and highlighting early mock talent. So this year, what might that talent be? As the sun sets on St. Paul closing ceremonies, look for names like All-Region (freshman) captain Lillie Sunby, Iowa-awarded Shala Sunby, and standout (not guilty) defendant Namita Nair. So is Wisconsin deep enough to replicate their NCT success? The question is one for Chicago, but the battle will first have to be fought in St. Paul. God, we love a good underdog story, and UW just keeps finding a way to give it to us.

I agree with a lot of the analysis here for the most part, but what do you mean “lower in the bubble?" Is the first list unranked or did you change things a bit after initially writing this up, since Wisconsin is placed first in the bubble unless that's unranked.

Aside from that, I find it very strange that you've put Iowa A and Minnesota A so far apart, just three weeks ago Iowa A took both ballots off Minnesota and tied one with your first team in--Northwestern, while Minnesota A failed to qualify from regionals and the B team faced a far easier path, while still dropping ballots. Historically both programs are similar, so I can't see a justification for Minnesota to be that far ahead of Iowa, or even ahead at all.

Other than that it seems like Portland is a bit overrated, you don't talk at all about the justification for placing a C bracket team ahead of 3 B bracket teams, including the top B team. Even within the C bracket I would expect to see Washington ahead of Portland due to a better record at regionals and experience against some of these teams in the midwest, but I don't have as strong of an opinion about that one.

Great insight Dingus!

Dinglebingus wrote:

I agree with a lot of the analysis here for the most part, but what do you mean “lower in the bubble?" Is the first list unranked or did you change things a bit after initially writing this up, since Wisconsin is placed first in the bubble unless that's unranked.

Aside from that, I find it very strange that you've put Iowa A and Minnesota A so far apart, just three weeks ago Iowa A took both ballots off Minnesota and tied one with your first team in--Northwestern, while Minnesota A failed to qualify from regionals and the B team faced a far easier path, while still dropping ballots. Historically both programs are similar, so I can't see a justification for Minnesota to be that far ahead of Iowa, or even ahead at all.

Dear Mr. Bingus,

It appears it is time for our yearly clarification. The bubble lists are not ordered by likelihood to bid. They are not ordered in any particular way. If we believe there is an ordering of likelihood we will sometimes mention that in the text of the post (e.g., the comment you cited above), but unless we do, don't try and read an ordering into the way we list teams. Often we are pulling teams from lists that are ordered by TPR which could result in a rough ordering by TPR, but as we add an remove teams based on internal debate (and sometimes as we wait for results to come in when we get started writing early), the order ends up getting mixed around. Do not try to read into the order we list teams in in the bubble.

-MAIMD

MockAnalysisIsMyDrug wrote:
Rounding out our A bracket are Maryland, American, and Howard.

You missed a spot.

bengarmoe wrote:

MockAnalysisIsMyDrug wrote:
Rounding out our A bracket are Maryland, American, and Howard.

You missed a spot.

maybe ten years ago ben

40gallonsofpaintthinner wrote:

bengarmoe wrote:

MockAnalysisIsMyDrug wrote:
Rounding out our A bracket are Maryland, American, and Howard.

You missed a spot.

maybe ten years ago ben

Nice work being needlessly mean AND being proved wrong. Congrats to UMBC on the bid!